Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With rates over 7% it seems impossible for prices to increase over next few years. Much more likely for prices to drop.

I think that higher rates will choke off supply pretty well, keeping prices high. Who is going sell a house with a mortgage locked in at 3.5% to buy another house at 7-8%?

Demand might just decrease less than supply.

I think this assumes everyone is in a pretty stable stage of their life, when the only reason to move is to upgrade your space. But that's not going to be true for everyone. Sure, you have older folks downsizing, and you have couples getting divorced. You also have people who are realizing that, actually, the middle school path isn't going to sort itself out, or this school is just not what I want for my kid so it's time to head to the burbs. Or, hey, I always planned to move to a place with a yard when I had kids, and I have kids, and I still want that yard. Or their jobs move, or a thousand other iterations. If your life would be more comfortable if you moved, and you can afford to move, people will still move.

We just had our offer accepted on a house (moving for one of the reasons listed above), and were lucky enough to find a house where we could assume the VA rate for some of the mortgage. Obviously this isn't something you can count on, but there are still some deals to be found out there, especially in this area where they were so many veterans. And I guess my point is, we were willing to move even with today's rates.

This is a good time not to use absolutes.

This. Absolutely.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Buying a house now would be like buying a house right before a real estate crash.

With mortgage rates so high, home prices have to drop but that hasn’t happened yet.

+1 grab your popcorn and watch the real estate market crash. Sustaining these high rates makes it just a matter of time.

Why are rates high? To combat inflation. Housing prices will remain stagnant or increase either due to higher inflation or the lower rates that accompany lower inflation.

There won’t be a real estate crash because the Fed will lower rates before that happens. The Fed wants to slow the economy, not crash it, and they will lower rates to keep it afloat.

And if they can't or won't?

Powell has already said he has "tools" to deal with a recession. "Tools" is code for rates cuts.

Powell also said the inflation is transitory.

Still believe him and/or his tools?

They have already figured out they can print as much money as they want as long as they are the worlds top currency. They started printing (QE) in ‘08 and have not stopped regardless of what they say. It’s going to be fine, it can only get better

True, but that's already started to fall apart. Hence, the current rates and the bond market getting hammered (breaking 40 year trendlines).

Britton Woods was 1971 (getting off the gold standard) and the bond market took off. Fast forward ~40 years, and the Fed is cornered. The CAN'T let interest rates rise too much into positive real rate territory, and they CAN'T print money anymore (the bond market's broken now).

And the BRICS have already started trading in non-USD currencies, putting the Petro-Dollar into jeopardy.

Do you guys not see this or willful ignorance?

DP I see it and it's terrifying. The USD doesn't have some sort of immutable position as the world's currency.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With rates over 7% it seems impossible for prices to increase over next few years. Much more likely for prices to drop.

I think that higher rates will choke off supply pretty well, keeping prices high. Who is going sell a house with a mortgage locked in at 3.5% to buy another house at 7-8%?

Demand might just decrease less than supply.

People can only delay moving for so long, so the supply will come back. Demand will not with rates above 7%.

But people will only be selling if they inherit a property and want to unload it or in the case of divorce or a job transfer…I doubt we’ll see people trading up much.

This is a good time not to use absolutes. Plenty of people will be buying and selling without inheriting a property, divorce or job transfer. The boomers in my neighborhood have been selling their houses because the pandemic is over and they can now move onto a retirement home, assisted living, or to be near kids. The market turns; just not as much as in the last few years.

+1 Life goes on for many reasons. I'm amazed at the posters who think that a low rate = never selling. Sure, it could mean keeping your 2,500 sq ft home in a great school district instead of buying the 3,500 sq ft one down the street, but there are lots of other reasons that people sell.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Buying a house now would be like buying a house right before a real estate crash.

With mortgage rates so high, home prices have to drop but that hasn’t happened yet.

+1 grab your popcorn and watch the real estate market crash. Sustaining these high rates makes it just a matter of time.

Why are rates high? To combat inflation. Housing prices will remain stagnant or increase either due to higher inflation or the lower rates that accompany lower inflation.

There won’t be a real estate crash because the Fed will lower rates before that happens. The Fed wants to slow the economy, not crash it, and they will lower rates to keep it afloat.

And if they can't or won't?

Powell has already said he has "tools" to deal with a recession. "Tools" is code for rates cuts.

Powell also said the inflation is transitory.

Still believe him and/or his tools?

They have already figured out they can print as much money as they want as long as they are the worlds top currency. They started printing (QE) in ‘08 and have not stopped regardless of what they say. It’s going to be fine, it can only get better

True, but that's already started to fall apart. Hence, the current rates and the bond market getting hammered (breaking 40 year trendlines).

Britton Woods was 1971 (getting off the gold standard) and the bond market took off. Fast forward ~40 years, and the Fed is cornered. The CAN'T let interest rates rise too much into positive real rate territory, and they CAN'T print money anymore (the bond market's broken now).

And the BRICS have already started trading in non-USD currencies, putting the Petro-Dollar into jeopardy.

Do you guys not see this or willful ignorance?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Buying a house now would be like buying a house right before a real estate crash.

With mortgage rates so high, home prices have to drop but that hasn’t happened yet.

+1 grab your popcorn and watch the real estate market crash. Sustaining these high rates makes it just a matter of time.

Why are rates high? To combat inflation. Housing prices will remain stagnant or increase either due to higher inflation or the lower rates that accompany lower inflation.

There won’t be a real estate crash because the Fed will lower rates before that happens. The Fed wants to slow the economy, not crash it, and they will lower rates to keep it afloat.

And if they can't or won't?

Powell has already said he has "tools" to deal with a recession. "Tools" is code for rates cuts.

Powell also said the inflation is transitory.

Still believe him and/or his tools?

They have already figured out they can print as much money as they want as long as they are the worlds top currency. They started printing (QE) in ‘08 and have not stopped regardless of what they say. It’s going to be fine, it can only get better

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With rates over 7% it seems impossible for prices to increase over next few years. Much more likely for prices to drop.

I think that higher rates will choke off supply pretty well, keeping prices high. Who is going sell a house with a mortgage locked in at 3.5% to buy another house at 7-8%?

Demand might just decrease less than supply.

People can only delay moving for so long, so the supply will come back. Demand will not with rates above 7%.

But people will only be selling if they inherit a property and want to unload it or in the case of divorce or a job transfer…I doubt we’ll see people trading up much.

This is a good time not to use absolutes. Plenty of people will be buying and selling without inheriting a property, divorce or job transfer. The boomers in my neighborhood have been selling their houses because the pandemic is over and they can now move onto a retirement home, assisted living, or to be near kids. The market turns; just not as much as in the last few years.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Buying a house now would be like buying a house right before a real estate crash.

With mortgage rates so high, home prices have to drop but that hasn’t happened yet.

+1 grab your popcorn and watch the real estate market crash. Sustaining these high rates makes it just a matter of time.

Why are rates high? To combat inflation. Housing prices will remain stagnant or increase either due to higher inflation or the lower rates that accompany lower inflation.

There won’t be a real estate crash because the Fed will lower rates before that happens. The Fed wants to slow the economy, not crash it, and they will lower rates to keep it afloat.

And if they can't or won't?

Powell has already said he has "tools" to deal with a recession. "Tools" is code for rates cuts.

Powell also said the inflation is transitory.

Still believe him and/or his tools?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Buying a house now would be like buying a house right before a real estate crash.

With mortgage rates so high, home prices have to drop but that hasn’t happened yet.

+1 grab your popcorn and watch the real estate market crash. Sustaining these high rates makes it just a matter of time.

Why are rates high? To combat inflation. Housing prices will remain stagnant or increase either due to higher inflation or the lower rates that accompany lower inflation.

There won’t be a real estate crash because the Fed will lower rates before that happens. The Fed wants to slow the economy, not crash it, and they will lower rates to keep it afloat.

And if they can't or won't?

Powell has already said he has "tools" to deal with a recession. "Tools" is code for rates cuts.

no

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Buying a house now would be like buying a house right before a real estate crash.

With mortgage rates so high, home prices have to drop but that hasn’t happened yet.

+1 grab your popcorn and watch the real estate market crash. Sustaining these high rates makes it just a matter of time.

Why are rates high? To combat inflation. Housing prices will remain stagnant or increase either due to higher inflation or the lower rates that accompany lower inflation.

There won’t be a real estate crash because the Fed will lower rates before that happens. The Fed wants to slow the economy, not crash it, and they will lower rates to keep it afloat.

And if they can't or won't?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've kept an eye open for homes for a long time. The housing prices have never gone down in the DMV. Where is this magical land where housing prices decrease?

SF

What's "SF"?

San Francisco

Thanks!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've kept an eye open for homes for a long time. The housing prices have never gone down in the DMV. Where is this magical land where housing prices decrease?

SF

What's "SF"?

San Francisco

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I've kept an eye open for homes for a long time. The housing prices have never gone down in the DMV. Where is this magical land where housing prices decrease?

SF

What's "SF"?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:With rates over 7% it seems impossible for prices to increase over next few years. Much more likely for prices to drop.

I think that higher rates will choke off supply pretty well, keeping prices high. Who is going sell a house with a mortgage locked in at 3.5% to buy another house at 7-8%?

Demand might just decrease less than supply.

People can only delay moving for so long, so the supply will come back. Demand will not with rates above 7%.

Most people can actually stay exactly where they are, and not move. Funny how when forced to, people learn to live with and make do with what they already have.

Absolutely. Our house just outside nyc is not a spacious as we’d like but it’s appreciated 11.5% in the nearly three years since we bought it and I’d rather use savings from our low PITI to customize it to meet our needs + add space than buy a larger house for more than double the interest.