To me Thrive is not about builders, it is about how to make Bethesda, CCDM, or Potomac less expansive. If a multifamily building starts to appear on one street, very few new buyer would want to purchase any single family home on the same street. Eventually, this street will lose its MC/UMC residents. Street by street and block by block, Single family neighborhoods disappear from MoCo in close in area. At the same time, the schools will be crowded.
MoCo hasn’t been able to attract high-paying business, but is able to attract MC/UMC families, which have one or two parents working in DC or Nova, due to good reputation of its public schools. If the single family neighborhoods disappear and schools are less attractive, MoCo will lose its tax base. The real estate market in Bethesda, CCMD, Potomac, North Bethesda, or even Rockvill will go down. Finally, everything will be equal.
This is the goal of Thrive.

Regardless of the economics of building on more or less expensive lots, upzoning will damage MC because what is attractive (historically) about MC is the SFH areas. Buyers of SFHs will move elsewhere, and those buyers are guaranteed to have brought more net tax dollars to MC than buyers of 2-3 unit complexes. Upzoning will discourage middle class families from investing their life's savings in MC.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Thrive people are so tiresome. Those numbers came from market values (for recently sold SFH) and assessed values for land only in those neighborhoods, so the latter are low. But, again, where can you get an acre of land for $1 million? Stonebridge paid $31 million for less than acre on East West a few years ago. Some of us here invest in these projects, so the numbers are pretty close at hand.

Terrific. Now, where do the numbers come from for two-unit vs one-unit replacement buildings on properties where previously only one-unit replacement buildings were allowed? From nowhere, because currently there is no such thing in Montgomery County. Which is why you have to make them up.

I assume you’re talking about estimated sales prices now. You can get in the neighborhood by using $/SqFt for MF in the same area as a reference point and then adjust up or down based on whether you think your product will be more or less attractive to buyers than what already exists in the market. That’s exactly the process investors go through when they’re considering how to use land and whether to put a new product in the market. How else do you think it will work once areas are upzoned? Because once the law changes, those buildings still won’t exist. Investors will have to estimate until there are better comparable.

Exactly. You're making up numbers.

You’re the one who made up an acre for $1 million and 8 apartments for $400k each.

How do you think developers will decide what to build after the law changes? Or how a bank decides whether a loan is safe?

No, that's a different poster. How will developers and banks decide? They will all make their own best guesses, some with more tolerance of risk, some with less, and then we will wait to see what actually happens.

Right now, what you're doing is presenting your own personal best guess as 100% guaranteed certainty, and that's just foolish.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Thrive people are so tiresome. Those numbers came from market values (for recently sold SFH) and assessed values for land only in those neighborhoods, so the latter are low. But, again, where can you get an acre of land for $1 million? Stonebridge paid $31 million for less than acre on East West a few years ago. Some of us here invest in these projects, so the numbers are pretty close at hand.

Terrific. Now, where do the numbers come from for two-unit vs one-unit replacement buildings on properties where previously only one-unit replacement buildings were allowed? From nowhere, because currently there is no such thing in Montgomery County. Which is why you have to make them up.

I assume you’re talking about estimated sales prices now. You can get in the neighborhood by using $/SqFt for MF in the same area as a reference point and then adjust up or down based on whether you think your product will be more or less attractive to buyers than what already exists in the market. That’s exactly the process investors go through when they’re considering how to use land and whether to put a new product in the market. How else do you think it will work once areas are upzoned? Because once the law changes, those buildings still won’t exist. Investors will have to estimate until there are better comparable.

Exactly. You're making up numbers.

You’re the one who made up an acre for $1 million and 8 apartments for $400k each.

How do you think developers will decide what to build after the law changes? Or how a bank decides whether a loan is safe?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Thrive people are so tiresome. Those numbers came from market values (for recently sold SFH) and assessed values for land only in those neighborhoods, so the latter are low. But, again, where can you get an acre of land for $1 million? Stonebridge paid $31 million for less than acre on East West a few years ago. Some of us here invest in these projects, so the numbers are pretty close at hand.

Terrific. Now, where do the numbers come from for two-unit vs one-unit replacement buildings on properties where previously only one-unit replacement buildings were allowed? From nowhere, because currently there is no such thing in Montgomery County. Which is why you have to make them up.

I assume you’re talking about estimated sales prices now. You can get in the neighborhood by using $/SqFt for MF in the same area as a reference point and then adjust up or down based on whether you think your product will be more or less attractive to buyers than what already exists in the market. That’s exactly the process investors go through when they’re considering how to use land and whether to put a new product in the market. How else do you think it will work once areas are upzoned? Because once the law changes, those buildings still won’t exist. Investors will have to estimate until there are better comparable.

Exactly. You're making up numbers.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Thrive people are so tiresome. Those numbers came from market values (for recently sold SFH) and assessed values for land only in those neighborhoods, so the latter are low. But, again, where can you get an acre of land for $1 million? Stonebridge paid $31 million for less than acre on East West a few years ago. Some of us here invest in these projects, so the numbers are pretty close at hand.

Terrific. Now, where do the numbers come from for two-unit vs one-unit replacement buildings on properties where previously only one-unit replacement buildings were allowed? From nowhere, because currently there is no such thing in Montgomery County. Which is why you have to make them up.

I assume you’re talking about estimated sales prices now. You can get in the neighborhood by using $/SqFt for MF in the same area as a reference point and then adjust up or down based on whether you think your product will be more or less attractive to buyers than what already exists in the market. That’s exactly the process investors go through when they’re considering how to use land and whether to put a new product in the market. How else do you think it will work once areas are upzoned? Because once the law changes, those buildings still won’t exist. Investors will have to estimate until there are better comparable.

Build in Frederick

Anonymous wrote:

Thrive people are so tiresome. Those numbers came from market values (for recently sold SFH) and assessed values for land only in those neighborhoods, so the latter are low. But, again, where can you get an acre of land for $1 million? Stonebridge paid $31 million for less than acre on East West a few years ago. Some of us here invest in these projects, so the numbers are pretty close at hand.

Terrific. Now, where do the numbers come from for two-unit vs one-unit replacement buildings on properties where previously only one-unit replacement buildings were allowed? From nowhere, because currently there is no such thing in Montgomery County. Which is why you have to make them up.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Take 1 acre of land. Buy it for $1M. Build one house on it and sell it for $1.5-2M or build 8 condos and sell each for $300K-$400k.

In the first scenario I make $500k to $1M in profit. In the second I make $1.4M to $2.2M. I’ll take the second please and also have 8 times as many people living in the county, performing MC and LC jobs and paying sales tax and real estate tax in my county. It is not about affordable housing, it is about smart business and free markets and not letting rich NIMBYs have their way in hoarding land for large estates and preserved green space.

Where are you going to get an acre of land for $1 million? In Chevy Chase, that’s 6-7 lots. It’s about the same in E Bethesda or Woodside. It’s a little less in Edgemoor. Land alone would be worth well over $1 million. You’d probably end up spending at least $2 million on land alone even around Woodside, and would be more like $6-$10 million around Bethesda or Chevy Chase. In your sales plan, you’re under water before you’ve even built the structure. That could maybe work around Wheaton, but there are lower risk ways of making $1.4 to $2 million in profit, like building 4 SFH on your acre of land.

Dumb a$$. It was a scenario. Start with whatever base amount you’d like. More homes on the same space makes more money.

If you're going to try to use scenarios to illustrate the value of Thrive, you need to work with numbers from the real world. Both you and Thrive treat Montgomery County as a made-up place instead of a place in the real world.

It matters because you can't charge whatever you want for a unit in a MF dwelling so SFH or some other use might be the most profitable use for a piece of land in the real world instead of a fantasy place you made up.

"You need to work with numbers from the real world!"

says the poster who is making up numbers.

Thrive people are so tiresome. Those numbers came from market values (for recently sold SFH) and assessed values for land only in those neighborhoods, so the latter are low. But, again, where can you get an acre of land for $1 million? Stonebridge paid $31 million for less than acre on East West a few years ago. Some of us here invest in these projects, so the numbers are pretty close at hand.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Take 1 acre of land. Buy it for $1M. Build one house on it and sell it for $1.5-2M or build 8 condos and sell each for $300K-$400k.

In the first scenario I make $500k to $1M in profit. In the second I make $1.4M to $2.2M. I’ll take the second please and also have 8 times as many people living in the county, performing MC and LC jobs and paying sales tax and real estate tax in my county. It is not about affordable housing, it is about smart business and free markets and not letting rich NIMBYs have their way in hoarding land for large estates and preserved green space.

Where are you going to get an acre of land for $1 million? In Chevy Chase, that’s 6-7 lots. It’s about the same in E Bethesda or Woodside. It’s a little less in Edgemoor. Land alone would be worth well over $1 million. You’d probably end up spending at least $2 million on land alone even around Woodside, and would be more like $6-$10 million around Bethesda or Chevy Chase. In your sales plan, you’re under water before you’ve even built the structure. That could maybe work around Wheaton, but there are lower risk ways of making $1.4 to $2 million in profit, like building 4 SFH on your acre of land.

Dumb a$$. It was a scenario. Start with whatever base amount you’d like. More homes on the same space makes more money.

If you're going to try to use scenarios to illustrate the value of Thrive, you need to work with numbers from the real world. Both you and Thrive treat Montgomery County as a made-up place instead of a place in the real world.

It matters because you can't charge whatever you want for a unit in a MF dwelling so SFH or some other use might be the most profitable use for a piece of land in the real world instead of a fantasy place you made up.

"You need to work with numbers from the real world!"

says the poster who is making up numbers.

But that poster has STRONG FEELINGS which override reality.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Take 1 acre of land. Buy it for $1M. Build one house on it and sell it for $1.5-2M or build 8 condos and sell each for $300K-$400k.

In the first scenario I make $500k to $1M in profit. In the second I make $1.4M to $2.2M. I’ll take the second please and also have 8 times as many people living in the county, performing MC and LC jobs and paying sales tax and real estate tax in my county. It is not about affordable housing, it is about smart business and free markets and not letting rich NIMBYs have their way in hoarding land for large estates and preserved green space.

Where are you going to get an acre of land for $1 million? In Chevy Chase, that’s 6-7 lots. It’s about the same in E Bethesda or Woodside. It’s a little less in Edgemoor. Land alone would be worth well over $1 million. You’d probably end up spending at least $2 million on land alone even around Woodside, and would be more like $6-$10 million around Bethesda or Chevy Chase. In your sales plan, you’re under water before you’ve even built the structure. That could maybe work around Wheaton, but there are lower risk ways of making $1.4 to $2 million in profit, like building 4 SFH on your acre of land.

Dumb a$$. It was a scenario. Start with whatever base amount you’d like. More homes on the same space makes more money.

If you're going to try to use scenarios to illustrate the value of Thrive, you need to work with numbers from the real world. Both you and Thrive treat Montgomery County as a made-up place instead of a place in the real world.

It matters because you can't charge whatever you want for a unit in a MF dwelling so SFH or some other use might be the most profitable use for a piece of land in the real world instead of a fantasy place you made up.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Take 1 acre of land. Buy it for $1M. Build one house on it and sell it for $1.5-2M or build 8 condos and sell each for $300K-$400k.

In the first scenario I make $500k to $1M in profit. In the second I make $1.4M to $2.2M. I’ll take the second please and also have 8 times as many people living in the county, performing MC and LC jobs and paying sales tax and real estate tax in my county. It is not about affordable housing, it is about smart business and free markets and not letting rich NIMBYs have their way in hoarding land for large estates and preserved green space.

Where are you going to get an acre of land for $1 million? In Chevy Chase, that’s 6-7 lots. It’s about the same in E Bethesda or Woodside. It’s a little less in Edgemoor. Land alone would be worth well over $1 million. You’d probably end up spending at least $2 million on land alone even around Woodside, and would be more like $6-$10 million around Bethesda or Chevy Chase. In your sales plan, you’re under water before you’ve even built the structure. That could maybe work around Wheaton, but there are lower risk ways of making $1.4 to $2 million in profit, like building 4 SFH on your acre of land.

Dumb a$$. It was a scenario. Start with whatever base amount you’d like. More homes on the same space makes more money.

DP. It matters because you need scale to get the profit. Take 1/3 acre, two or three condos at $300k or $400k and you are losing compared to a SFH at $1.5million. Building four condos on 1/3 acre is just about the break even point. Those are going to be small condos. You do know developers aren't stupid?

Excellent points. Developers aren’t stupid but clearly pro-Thrive people are.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Take 1 acre of land. Buy it for $1M. Build one house on it and sell it for $1.5-2M or build 8 condos and sell each for $300K-$400k.

In the first scenario I make $500k to $1M in profit. In the second I make $1.4M to $2.2M. I’ll take the second please and also have 8 times as many people living in the county, performing MC and LC jobs and paying sales tax and real estate tax in my county. It is not about affordable housing, it is about smart business and free markets and not letting rich NIMBYs have their way in hoarding land for large estates and preserved green space.

Where are you going to get an acre of land for $1 million? In Chevy Chase, that’s 6-7 lots. It’s about the same in E Bethesda or Woodside. It’s a little less in Edgemoor. Land alone would be worth well over $1 million. You’d probably end up spending at least $2 million on land alone even around Woodside, and would be more like $6-$10 million around Bethesda or Chevy Chase. In your sales plan, you’re under water before you’ve even built the structure. That could maybe work around Wheaton, but there are lower risk ways of making $1.4 to $2 million in profit, like building 4 SFH on your acre of land.

Dumb a$$. It was a scenario. Start with whatever base amount you’d like. More homes on the same space makes more money.

DP. It matters because you need scale to get the profit. Take 1/3 acre, two or three condos at $300k or $400k and you are losing compared to a SFH at $1.5million. Building four condos on 1/3 acre is just about the break even point. Those are going to be small condos. You do know developers aren't stupid?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Take 1 acre of land. Buy it for $1M. Build one house on it and sell it for $1.5-2M or build 8 condos and sell each for $300K-$400k.

In the first scenario I make $500k to $1M in profit. In the second I make $1.4M to $2.2M. I’ll take the second please and also have 8 times as many people living in the county, performing MC and LC jobs and paying sales tax and real estate tax in my county. It is not about affordable housing, it is about smart business and free markets and not letting rich NIMBYs have their way in hoarding land for large estates and preserved green space.

Where are you going to get an acre of land for $1 million? In Chevy Chase, that’s 6-7 lots. It’s about the same in E Bethesda or Woodside. It’s a little less in Edgemoor. Land alone would be worth well over $1 million. You’d probably end up spending at least $2 million on land alone even around Woodside, and would be more like $6-$10 million around Bethesda or Chevy Chase. In your sales plan, you’re under water before you’ve even built the structure. That could maybe work around Wheaton, but there are lower risk ways of making $1.4 to $2 million in profit, like building 4 SFH on your acre of land.

Dumb a$$. It was a scenario. Start with whatever base amount you’d like. More homes on the same space makes more money.