If you take MoCo out of the equation and run average national ranking stats for 8th grade for the top two VA teams it would look like this:

2026: Pride (9) Stars (7) = #8 average
2027: Pride (23) Stars (42) = #33
2028: Pride (14) Stars (38) = #26
2029 (7th grade for comparison): Pride (23) Stars (26) = #25

VA doesn’t show a unique “drop off” at the 28 level (in fact, it shows a ranking improvement at this age level). But there has been a 3.5X average ranking drop among the top VA teams since the 26s.

Compare this with averaging the rank of the top two DMV teams (8th grade only) during the same years:

2026: Pride (9) Stars (7) = #8 average
2027: BLC (7) Pride (23) = #15
2028: Pride (14) Stars (38) = #26
2029 (7th grade for comparison) BLC (20) Pride (23) = #22

This shows a slightly lower average DMV ranking (3X) since the 26s.

Another trend involves the 2030s. The top three DMV teams in that age group are BLC (17) Stars (41) and Pride Red Loudon (61). Pride Red NoVa currently sits at 115. Some will dismiss this as meaningless since they are in 6th grade. Fine. But history shows teams don’t move dramatically in the rankings (unless there is a defection of talent from one team like what happened with the BLC 28s). It indicates a sizable drop in VA at the 2030 age group.

Takeaways: There was a notable drop in VA rankings at the 2027 level, a notable drop in MoCo rankings at the 2028 level, a worrisome drop in average ranking (for VA and broader DMV) over the past three years, and a notable drop in VA rankings at the 2030 age group.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

You missed a local Florida commit and inadvertently added Charlottesville schools (St Annes-Belfield and Covenant School). The new list is as follows:

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
1 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
2 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver
Total - 10 in top 20 (7 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
0 - Virginia
2 - Duke
Total - 12

Of those 12, here is the club breakdown:
Capital - 9
YJMA - 2
Hero's - 1

It does seem that the 2025s had to deal with much less "flight" of good players to MD teams than the 2028s. I continue to believe any change at 2028 is related to the flight of Montgomery County players to MD teams, which has adversely impacted the local team rankings. I don’t see an overall geographic area talent drop off as compared to prior years.

Breakdown of the 12 by state of residence:

Virginia - 11
Maryland - 1

Ouch!

You’re counting all the Cap girls as “Virginia?”

Sportsrecruits.com shows the following hometowns for the 12:

Alexandria, VA x2
Great Falls, VA x2
Haymarket, VA x2
McLean, VA x2
Vienna, VA x2
Falls Church, VA
Glenwood, MD

OG data guy here. These new data guys (maybe gals?) are crushing it. Much better than me. Keep it coming.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

You missed a local Florida commit and inadvertently added Charlottesville schools (St Annes-Belfield and Covenant School). The new list is as follows:

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
1 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
2 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver
Total - 10 in top 20 (7 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
0 - Virginia
2 - Duke
Total - 12

Of those 12, here is the club breakdown:
Capital - 9
YJMA - 2
Hero's - 1

It does seem that the 2025s had to deal with much less "flight" of good players to MD teams than the 2028s. I continue to believe any change at 2028 is related to the flight of Montgomery County players to MD teams, which has adversely impacted the local team rankings. I don’t see an overall geographic area talent drop off as compared to prior years.

Breakdown of the 12 by state of residence:

Virginia - 11
Maryland - 1

Ouch!

You’re counting all the Cap girls as “Virginia?”

Sportsrecruits.com shows the following hometowns for the 12:

Alexandria, VA x2
Great Falls, VA x2
Haymarket, VA x2
McLean, VA x2
Vienna, VA x2
Falls Church, VA
Glenwood, MD

Let's go NoVA. I'm afraid those numbers are echoes of when the rec programs for early development were outstanding in those towns. We'll see if they sustain.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

You missed a local Florida commit and inadvertently added Charlottesville schools (St Annes-Belfield and Covenant School). The new list is as follows:

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
1 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
2 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver
Total - 10 in top 20 (7 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
0 - Virginia
2 - Duke
Total - 12

Of those 12, here is the club breakdown:
Capital - 9
YJMA - 2
Hero's - 1

It does seem that the 2025s had to deal with much less "flight" of good players to MD teams than the 2028s. I continue to believe any change at 2028 is related to the flight of Montgomery County players to MD teams, which has adversely impacted the local team rankings. I don’t see an overall geographic area talent drop off as compared to prior years.

Breakdown of the 12 by state of residence:

Virginia - 11
Maryland - 1

Ouch!

You’re counting all the Cap girls as “Virginia?”

Sportsrecruits.com shows the following hometowns for the 12:

Alexandria, VA x2
Great Falls, VA x2
Haymarket, VA x2
McLean, VA x2
Vienna, VA x2
Falls Church, VA
Glenwood, MD

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

You missed a local Florida commit and inadvertently added Charlottesville schools (St Annes-Belfield and Covenant School). The new list is as follows:

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
1 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
2 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver
Total - 10 in top 20 (7 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
0 - Virginia
2 - Duke
Total - 12

Of those 12, here is the club breakdown:
Capital - 9
YJMA - 2
Hero's - 1

It does seem that the 2025s had to deal with much less "flight" of good players to MD teams than the 2028s. I continue to believe any change at 2028 is related to the flight of Montgomery County players to MD teams, which has adversely impacted the local team rankings. I don’t see an overall geographic area talent drop off as compared to prior years.

Breakdown of the 12 by state of residence:

Virginia - 11
Maryland - 1

Ouch!

You’re counting all the Cap girls as “Virginia?”

No, the 11 live in VA. The one from MD lives in Howard County.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

You missed a local Florida commit and inadvertently added Charlottesville schools (St Annes-Belfield and Covenant School). The new list is as follows:

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
1 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
2 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver
Total - 10 in top 20 (7 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
0 - Virginia
2 - Duke
Total - 12

Of those 12, here is the club breakdown:
Capital - 9
YJMA - 2
Hero's - 1

It does seem that the 2025s had to deal with much less "flight" of good players to MD teams than the 2028s. I continue to believe any change at 2028 is related to the flight of Montgomery County players to MD teams, which has adversely impacted the local team rankings. I don’t see an overall geographic area talent drop off as compared to prior years.

Breakdown of the 12 by state of residence:

Virginia - 11
Maryland - 1

Ouch!

You’re counting all the Cap girls as “Virginia?”

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

You missed a local Florida commit and inadvertently added Charlottesville schools (St Annes-Belfield and Covenant School). The new list is as follows:

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
1 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
2 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver
Total - 10 in top 20 (7 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
0 - Virginia
2 - Duke
Total - 12

Of those 12, here is the club breakdown:
Capital - 9
YJMA - 2
Hero's - 1

It does seem that the 2025s had to deal with much less "flight" of good players to MD teams than the 2028s. I continue to believe any change at 2028 is related to the flight of Montgomery County players to MD teams, which has adversely impacted the local team rankings. I don’t see an overall geographic area talent drop off as compared to prior years.

Breakdown of the 12 by state of residence:

Virginia - 11
Maryland - 1

Ouch!

Anonymous wrote:If a girl gets recruited by D1, plays freshman year and then gets to college and decides to quit because she wants a different experience, what are the ramifications? It's hard to make a decision to commit to something so intense at age 15 when you have no concept of what college life is like nor life experience.

The ramifications are she loses any $$ she was getting

Anonymous wrote:If a girl gets recruited by D1, plays freshman year and then gets to college and decides to quit because she wants a different experience, what are the ramifications? It's hard to make a decision to commit to something so intense at age 15 when you have no concept of what college life is like nor life experience.

You don't commit until AT LEAST Sept. 1 of your JUNIOR year so you're off by a year or two...

It is not rocket science why they left and it all comes down to recruiting end of discussion on that BLC just doesn’t have the connections so why risk it if your DD is good enough to make a top MD team or Cap

if there was more to those girls leaving BLC for Heros the dad posting here obviously knows it and has an axe to grind...the rest of us just have to read the rambling without him ever getting to the actual axe

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Let's sum this up on the 2028s. About 6-7 Moco players left for Heros. The BLC 28 team imploded as a result. Several Nova players left for MD teams but Pride and Stars are still there. If those 10 or so players currently on MD teams all come back to try out for Capital, that makes the 28 pool of players only stronger, not weaker. What else is there to argue about?

Chances of 10 actually leaving an MD club to tryout for Cap? Seems slim. Might get 5 that make the move back.

Why does it matter if 1 makes the move back or all of them make it back? That is irrelevant to the topic. The discussion is more about a larger group than normal moved to MD teams than on an average year.

not sure why it matters that a larger group than normal made the move but again I think it is because of the following:

1- MC Elite was done at that point and everyone knew it
2- BLC was the only other option for MoCo girls and they did not yet trust the process - at the time the 27s were an anomaly and parents did not want to risk so they (did what many in the past had already done but in smaller numbers because many just stayed at MC Elite instead) went to "MD clubs"

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Let's sum this up on the 2028s. About 6-7 Moco players left for Heros. The BLC 28 team imploded as a result. Several Nova players left for MD teams but Pride and Stars are still there. If those 10 or so players currently on MD teams all come back to try out for Capital, that makes the 28 pool of players only stronger, not weaker. What else is there to argue about?

Chances of 10 actually leaving an MD club to tryout for Cap? Seems slim. Might get 5 that make the move back.

Why does it matter if 1 makes the move back or all of them make it back? That is irrelevant to the topic. The discussion is more about a larger group than normal moved to MD teams than on an average year.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we need some data to settle this.

Using top 20 (200 or so players committing per year), and players from Northern Virginia, DC, Maryland who go to school at DC/MoCo High Schools.

--Local 2025s committed to Top 20

Schools in preseason top 20
1 - UNC
2 - Michigan
1 - JMU
2 - JHU
1 - Florida
1- ND
2 - Denver

Total - 10 in top 20 (6 in top 10)

Schools that have averaged a top 20 finish over the last decade:
2 - Virginia
2 - Duke

Total - 14

Acknowledging that a reasonable argument has been made that the 2028 class is not as strong as 2025 and others, with 10-14 players from the Northern Virginia, DC, and MD committing to the top 20 schools this year, it is fair to imagine that the number for the 2028s is likely to be at least 5 and as high as 8-9.

So still a steep climb and challenging odds, but very likely to be more than 1-2 girls from the DC area 2028 class.

Data Guy, you are annoying but I respect your work.

I will take it.

Data Guy, you did all that research and did not even notice the club affiliation of the local players? You even doubled down on (your own) “reasonable argument” that 2028 is not as strong as other years. Are you generally bad at analysis, or just having an “off” day?

Looks like other "data guy" is even more annoying.

First, club affiliation wasn't relevant--plenty of Baltimore club parents posting here, and I'm guessing many are from MoCo. No need to rehash the speculation on whether top MoCo players may try out for Capital. But if there are going to DC area schools, I would argue that we get to claim them.

Second, you are having trouble tracking who is making what argument, which is understandable given this is an anonymous board. I'm on the side that believes the 2028 issue is primarily a MoCO teams challenge, and that the talent of the class in the area overall, is in a similar range to prior year. I'm simply deploying a simple technique of analysis and persuasion by assuming my interlocutors position for the sake of argument, and showing that--even if it's accurate--the conclusion on the instant issue (1-2 from DC area to top 20) is likely to be wrong.

Let's sum this up on the 2028s. About 6-7 Moco players left for Heros. The BLC 28 team imploded as a result. Several Nova players left for MD teams but Pride and Stars are still there. If those 10 or so players currently on MD teams all come back to try out for Capital, that makes the 28 pool of players only stronger, not weaker. What else is there to argue about?

This can’t be Data Guy. He surely knows it was 5 who left for Heroes.

If a girl gets recruited by D1, plays freshman year and then gets to college and decides to quit because she wants a different experience, what are the ramifications? It's hard to make a decision to commit to something so intense at age 15 when you have no concept of what college life is like nor life experience.