Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.

Posters have claimed DMV players are leaving for MD teams in large numbers, and that this "drain" has caused a drop in DMV-area rankings (specifically in Montgomery County).

Below is a look at the number of DMV-area players currently on the top three MD teams for each year based on available data (Source: SportsRecruits roster pages. Note: 2028 hometown player info is not available.) No player is identified by name - only by their home towns.

The top three MD teams were selected based on the assumption that the DMV players on those teams represent some of the best of the DC-area. They represent the "drain" some have alleged is taking place. There are likely other DMV-area players on other MD teams, but the likelihood that those players would have a rank-moving impact on any DMV-area team they could have played for (had they stayed in, or returned to, the DMV) is assumed to be low.

While the data does show a growing number of DMV players have joined MD teams over the past two years, in total, it isn't a sizable number. (Nine players at its height, which was last year, the 2027s).

It's worth noting the 2027s were the same year the top two DMV teams (BLC and Pride) maintained a national rank average of 11% over their three year campaign (#15 for 8th grade only). Put another way, the year that saw the largest number of DMV defections to Md also saw the lowest average national ranking for the best DMV teams in recent history.

All of this points to the fact that the MD teams are not "draining" the DMV of a measurable number of players that would have a seismic impact on the ranking of the DMV teams they left behind (had they stayed). Only time will tell what will happen with the 2028s ...

2025
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Montgomery Village)
M&D Black - 0
Skywalkers Blue - 0
TOTAL = 1 (Upper MoCo)

2026
Hero’s Green - 1 (Upper MoCo - Damascus), 1 (Kensington), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Integrity Green - 1 (VA)
M&D Black- 2 (VA)
** Adding Skywalkers Blue as they were ranked #15 - 2 (Potomac)
TOTAL = 8 (1 Upper MoCo, 4 Lower MoCo, 3 VA)

2027
Hero’s Green - 1 (DC), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Potomac)
M&D Black - 1 (Sandy Spring), 1 (Spencerville), 1 (Rockville), 1 (Chevy Chase)
Skywalkers Blue: 1 (N Potomac) 1 (VA)
TOTAL = 9 (1 DC, 7 Lower MoCo, 1 VA)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hero's has really been a big beneficiary of MC Elite spiraling across all age groups. MC Elite 2027s really never were very good as many of the lower A/B level girls went to Next Level or Rebels if they didn't make BLC or go to Baltimore teams.

Hero's is also Howard county so not exactly Baltimore, more in between Baltimore and Dc

MoCo should be considered D.C. while Howard should be considered Baltimore. Howard is closer to Baltimore and no one living there is going to choose a D.C. team over a Baltimore team if they can make the top Baltimore teams (Hero's, M&D, SkyWalkers, etc.)

Why does this person care so much about this part?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.

YJMA 2030 is solid and will get better this spring. The top 2030 team in in the area by a wide margin is BLC. The same goes for 2031 and 2032. BLC has down a great job with the younger grades.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

absolutely, the top 2030 team in the area is YJMA at #11, a team made of nearly entirely MCElite girls from last spring. Too bad they can't keep these teams together across multiple years.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hero's has really been a big beneficiary of MC Elite spiraling across all age groups. MC Elite 2027s really never were very good as many of the lower A/B level girls went to Next Level or Rebels if they didn't make BLC or go to Baltimore teams.

Hero's is also Howard county so not exactly Baltimore, more in between Baltimore and Dc

MoCo should be considered D.C. while Howard should be considered Baltimore. Howard is closer to Baltimore and no one living there is going to choose a D.C. team over a Baltimore team if they can make the top Baltimore teams (Hero's, M&D, SkyWalkers, etc.)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hero's has really been a big beneficiary of MC Elite spiraling across all age groups. MC Elite 2027s really never were very good as many of the lower A/B level girls went to Next Level or Rebels if they didn't make BLC or go to Baltimore teams.

Hero's is also Howard county so not exactly Baltimore, more in between Baltimore and Dc

Speaking of Rebels, I wonder if they can get any traction. Seems like it should/would be a great pipeline for GC, but no 28 team? Maybe building back up with the younger years?

I am not aware of any girls at ‘27 or ‘28 who started at MCE and then went to Heroes.

Anonymous wrote:Hero's has really been a big beneficiary of MC Elite spiraling across all age groups. MC Elite 2027s really never were very good as many of the lower A/B level girls went to Next Level or Rebels if they didn't make BLC or go to Baltimore teams.

Hero's is also Howard county so not exactly Baltimore, more in between Baltimore and Dc

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hero's has really been a big beneficiary of MC Elite spiraling across all age groups. MC Elite 2027s really never were very good as many of the lower A/B level girls went to Next Level or Rebels if they didn't make BLC or go to Baltimore teams.

Hero's is also Howard county so not exactly Baltimore, more in between Baltimore and Dc

Speaking of Rebels, I wonder if they can get any traction. Seems like it should/would be a great pipeline for GC, but no 28 team? Maybe building back up with the younger years?

Anonymous wrote:Hero's has really been a big beneficiary of MC Elite spiraling across all age groups. MC Elite 2027s really never were very good as many of the lower A/B level girls went to Next Level or Rebels if they didn't make BLC or go to Baltimore teams.

Hero's is also Howard county so not exactly Baltimore, more in between Baltimore and Dc

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Per PP, it’s not lack of talent, it’s the talent drain to Baltimore teams. Anecdotally, I’m aware of multiple DC area girls playing for Baltimore teams bc they feel teams around here are lacking.

I’m also aware of girls approaching HS that plan to try out for Baltimore teams prior to HS and would prefer to play there instead of Capital.