Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Which brings us to a point yet to be made on this thread but made elsewhere.....how annoying that MC Elite ran themselves into the ground....none of this conversation would be happening if they would have stayed the "elite" place for girls lax in MoCo....they would have had many top 10 teams coming through for high school....shame

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

There isn't a unique talent drop in MoCo at the 28 level. If we're talking "anomalies" of good teams, the BLC 27s would fit the same description. These are the highest performing MoCo teams at 8th grade using all available data:

2025: MC Elite (#68)
2026: BLC (#77)
2027: BLC (#7)
2028: Next Level (#67)

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You may say I took the bait, but I looked at the rankings data for local clubs 8th grade seasons from 25s-28s.

If you take out the rankings anomaly caused by BLC's historically-strong 2027 team (which had a number of players who now play for Baltimore clubs), and historically weak 2028 team, the rest of the DC-area teams are about on par with the '25, '26, '27 teams in average ranking.

Stars (#38) and Pride (#14) are consistent with historical track records. Next Level's actually better (at #67). If we want to count Renegades' successor, 3D Maryland, who has their highest ranked club yet with the 2028s (#36), that further balances the scales.

The big drop-offs are the local Maryland (MOCO) teams, BLC (#201 down from #7 for the 2027s) and MC Elite (#177), which are ranked much lower than historical averages. This thread has talked at length about how top players that may have traditionally played in MOCO are now playing with Baltimore clubs at the 2028 level, and whether any might consider coming back and trying out for Capital.

So the data does not support the conclusion that the local area 2028s are not as strong as prior years. It does appear, however, that MOCO talent may indeed have moved North for club play.

Proof will be mid season 2024-25 when the Capital '28s have built a track record.

2028 is an off year for talent across the board, unfortunately. It’s too bad — every now and again there’s a drop.

The best of BLC 2027 went to Capital (about ten players). BLC 2029 is a top 20 team - no sign of any players moving to Balto. They would have done so by now if they felt they needed / wanted to. It doesn’t make sense for them to move since they’re on a Capital track. When you check the Capital 2024 and 2025 commits and compare them with Hero’s, Capital has the edge in sending girls to better schools and programs.

Fairly weak argument to respond to a substantive post with a declarative statement and no supporting data. If you want to back your statement, great, if not I will remain unpersuaded that there is some dramatic change--your clever condescension notwithstanding.

Stats that show the local talent at the 2028 level is “off”:

- Prior to HS, at 2026, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #33. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #77; BLC 7th grade = #85 (77+85 / 2 = #81 average) **6th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 8th grade = #9; 7th grade = #7 (9 + 7 / 2 = #8 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #14 (7 + 14 / 2 = #11 average)
- 81 + 8 + 11 / 3 = 33
- Prior to HS, at 2027, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #24. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #7; 7th grade = #7; 6th grade = #4 (7 + 7 + 4 / 3 = #6 average)
- Pride 8th grade = #23; 7th grade = #14; 6th grade = #10 (23 + 14 + 10 / 3 = #16 average)
- Stars 8th grade = #42; 7th grade = #64; 6th grade = #43 (42 + 64 + 43 / 3 = #50 average)
- 6 + 16 + 50 / 3 = 24
- Prior to HS, at 2028, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) averaged a national ranking of #72. The math (rounded):
- BLC 8th grade = #201; 7th grade = #157; BLC 6th grade = #118 (201+157+118 / 3 = #159 average
- Pride 8th grade = #14; 7th grade = #19; 6th grade = #17 (14 + 19 + 17 / 3 = #17 average
- Stars 8th grade = #38; 7th grade = #45; 6th grade = #36 (38 + 45 + 36 / 3 = #40 average
- 159 + 17 + 40 / 3 = 72
- At 2029, the top three DMV teams (BLC, Pride Red, Stars LB) average a national ranking of #19. The math (rounded):
- BLC 7th grade = #20; 6th grade = #11 (20 + 11 / 2 = #16 average) ** 5th grade stats are unavailable
- Pride 7th grade = #23; 6th grade = #15 (23 + 15 / 2 = #19 average)
- Stars 7th grade = #26; 6th grade = #20 (26 + 20 / 2 = #23 average)
- 16 + 19 + 23 / 3 = 19

Bro... That's pretty extensive analysis. Shows Pride is on track as usual, among other things. Are you the same poster, or do we have two willing to wade through the historical for us?

One issue, if we know 2028 local players who were at BLC went to Hero's, and who were at Stars and Pride went to M&D, are those 6-10 girls, if they were back on Stars or MOCO teams enough to have brought the local area clubs 2028s back in line, or close to historical averages?

Also, I would offer that the true assessment will be whether the 2028s can match Capital's trajectory for the 2025s-27s. IF so, perhaps the rankings analysis above missed some intangibles, or girls playing in Baltimore returned, or there was a coaching factor.

Even if there were ten of the strongest 28 DMV players on MD teams right now (there are fewer than that), and all of them came back, that would average ~three players per each DMV team. Unless each is a Charlotte North prodigy none of us has heard about, they wouldn’t dramatically dent the 2.2X delta that exists when compared against the 26s, the 3X delta v the 27s, and the 3.8X delta v the 29s. The talent for the 28s is just off, and the stats seem to bear this out.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

No doubt the MoCo teams exhibited the biggest drop in the 28 year. Respectfully I might disagree with the assessment that the Stars 26s were “abnormally good.” Stars 2029 currently has a national average of #23 (based on past two years of data). The club has definitely struggled the past two years, no question about that. But the 29s seem to be performing well.

If I recall correctly, 2028 Stars may have been ranked in the 20s at various times over the years, but I could be wrong about that. 2029 Stars are currently ranked 26, which seems pretty normal to me. There is a HUGE difference between a top 30 team and a top 10 team I continue to believe stars 2026 was an anomaly.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

No doubt the MoCo teams exhibited the biggest drop in the 28 year. Respectfully I might disagree with the assessment that the Stars 26s were “abnormally good.” Stars 2029 currently has a national average of #23 (based on past two years of data). The club has definitely struggled the past two years, no question about that. But the 29s seem to be performing well.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

2028 NOVA teams are roughly in line with historical averages for 8th grade year rankings. I see no dropoff that can't be explained by an abnormally good 2026 Stars team in their 8th grade year (ranked 7). The lack of talent at 2028 is in Montgomery County.

8th Grade Year Rankings
Pride 2028 - 14
Pride 2027 - 23
Pride 2026 - 9
Pride 2025 - 13
Pride 8th Grade Average - 15

Stars 2028 - 38
Stars 2027 - 42
Stars 2026 - 7
Stars 2025 - 38
Stars 8th Grade Average - 31

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.

NoVa too. Stars is / was a top 25 team for the 26s and 29s. Pride remained strong throughout but Stars fell to #50 average rank in 2027 and #40 average rank in 2028.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

Ok, I’m being serious here, so hear me out.

You live find abba making all this days. Now go back to every East they have these rankings and look at the average rankings these teams had when they were all in eighth grade and compare it to where the 28s are currently ranked and give us that data please

Not being a jerk, I am genuinely interested

8th grade only - top three DMV teams

2026: #27 average national rank

2027: #24 average national rank

2028: #40 average national rank

*7th grade only, just for comparison: 23 nat average rank.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

Ok, I’m being serious here, so hear me out.

You live find abba making all this days. Now go back to every East they have these rankings and look at the average rankings these teams had when they were all in eighth grade and compare it to where the 28s are currently ranked and give us that data please

Not being a jerk, I am genuinely interested

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Um, Next Level ‘29 is the best DMV team and has been for a few years.

You are correct. Thank you. This actually lowers the 2029 average national ranking of the top two DMV teams to 15%.

So the numbers are:

2026s: 10% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2027s: 11% average national ranking (BLC and Pride)

2028s: 29% average national ranking (Pride and Stars)

2029s: 15% average national ranking (BLC and Next Level)

I’m convinced. The flight of talented local 2028 MoCo players to MD teams had a detrimental impact on the MoCo teams, which everyone already knew.

I have still seen nothing to suggest local 2028 talent is “off”.

Looks like Montgomery County talent is "off". I wonder what happend in 2009/2010 that would have resulted in such a lack of talent across the county.