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Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

That's impossible to know. What is possible to know is the COVID rates that go up when schools open. What a mystery, eh?

Rates are also going up where schools are closed. So what's your point?

The issue is... what else changed? What stayed the same?
Some things you can account for.
PA example - bars, restaurants, churches, sports - all open in June. Rates doubled from August & September to October... weather was still nice so no big surge of indoor activity... So what happened?
1. School resumed.
2. Labor Day parties, soccer tournaments, etc
Rates doubled again in November. Is it
1. school spread
2. Halloween parties
3. Trump rallies
4. Less daylight = more indoor activity
OR
5. all of the above
Honestly, contact tracing with no testing does very little when it comes to people being asymptomatic but possibly spreading. Possible scenario: Amy had COVID and was in class with Bob and Charlie. Neither have symptoms, never take a test. Bob and Charlie play baseball and soccer. Dave and Emery from these sports get COVID... but no idea where they got it from, because they weren't in class or in contact with Amy or anyone else who was sick.
So, my son's school... just quarantined the entire 7th grade - they were hybrid, but because the teachers were exposed, they had to move the entire grade to remote. "Maya" was notified that she was in close contact with one of the people that tested positive (3 cases in last 2 weeks). Maya is currently "not feeling well". Maya's brother, "Maurice", who is in elementary (full time) is riding around the neighborhood looking for kids to go play with him. Several do. I see them playing at the park. So... when Maurice's friends get COVID, will they realize the spread came from the middle school sibling? Probably not.
So many cases are "no idea where it came from" when the reality is, its asymptomatic people that have no clue they are spreading it.

I would add colleges returning, although I think that bars and restaurants play a big role. Bars and restaurants opened in most counties by the end of June. I found this article from July which showed that by July 20, the number of younger people (19-24 age group) was rising in some areas.

https://www.theintell.com/story/news/2020/07/20/coronavirus-cases-rising-in-southeast-pa-among-those-19-to-24/42051915/

By July 15, the Governor phased back the reopening by instituting new restrictions, including closing bars that don't serve food, limiting indoor gatherings to 25 and reducing restaurant capacity to 25%

https://www.fox43.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/pa-department-of-health-releases-information-on-covid-19-case-investigations-including-some-bars-and-restaurants-data/521-1651a052-02be-4f3b-a8d9-4a255668e556

Restrictions on bars and restaurants in Philadelphia continued through at least August. This article from July 23 also noted a concerning increase in cases associated with younger people crowding into bars and restaurants.

https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/07/23/pennsylvania-health-officials-focued-on-reversing-trend-of-rising-covid-19-cases-in-state/

Here is a resource with a timeline for reopening decisions. Note that on September 21, restaurants were permitted to reopen at 50% capacity. Restrictions on large gathering were lifted a few weeks later.

https://ballotpedia.org/Documenting_Pennsylvania%27s_reopening_and_path_to_recovery_from_the_coronavirus_(COVID-19)_pandemic,_2020


PA's increase in cases started really accelerating after those restrictions were lifted. This is similar to what we have seen in Maryland where most schools did not reopen. You call tell me that it is schools and not bars or indoor dining, but there seems to be a pattern. Why are PA and Maryland the same, despite one state opening schools and the other keeping them closed?

Where I am is not Philadelphia (that is not a mid-sized city... and no rural areas in Philadelphia County). Plus a lot of Philadelphia schools have remained closed.
Where I am at, there's a few small colleges, nothing big... but I do agree, that plays a role.
The crowds in restaurants has remained the same. When counties moved to green initially in May & June, it was 50% occupancy. It was lowered to 25% July 16 - but I don't think it was ever enforced. I saw no change in the places I go to. The bar rule is that you have to serve food with alcohol. The ongoing joke is that you can get COVID drinking a beer... but not if you drink beer and eat a hamburger. I know places that will sell you a "food voucher" that counts as "serving food" so you can buy a beer.
There's also a hundred different ways to interpret the restrictions. Everyone is interpreting it the way they want.
The problem is, the government is trying to legislate things to influence or change behavior... and it's not working.
The "large gatherings" - it was after the fact. Hershey Park was open ALL SUMMER. So... large gatherings were already happening. The auto show received a "special" permit to still hold their large "gathering" over the summer. The Governor is actually taking a lot of heat for his special treatment of certain companies or activities.

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Anonymous wrote:I love how "keen observers" miss the alarmingly high COVID rates in countries with open schools, and in areas of the US with open schools. If anything, politics have forced schools to open when they should have stayed shut.

Did you read the article? There is no correlation between covid rates and school openings. I’m still agog at supposedly progressive and intelligent DC parents who don’t get this.

NP. My observational data...
I'm not in DMV. Live just outside a mid-sized city in Pennsylvania. County has a mix of urban, suburban, and rural population. State shut down severely in late March. Phased re-opening started mid-May, but my county did not re-open until mid-June. The limitations have varied from month to month with the government updating / changing /refining restrictions, but restaurants and bars have been open since mid-June. Kids returned to travel soccer and baseball in June. Gyms re-opened in June. Kids camps opened, to include indoor (like gymnastics) in June. Churches began in person services - initially limited to 25 in person, but that increased to 50% of fire code max occupancy.
State has a mandatory mask mandate. I rarely see anyone not wearing a mask, except for outside.
My county has 8 school districts, plus a variety of private and charter schools. Roughly half began school in late August or early September under a hybrid model, and half went back full time. A few remained full online. One of my children went back in a hybrid model in late August (in the biggest district in the county with 14k students), the other remained online (charter). In October, the largest district began full in person for elementary (middle and high remained hybrid). My son's charter school went hybrid in October. Since late September, various schools have had some classes / sections / grades /entire school quarantined for 2 weeks.
July - averaged 19 new cases a day
August - averaged 22 new cases a day
September - averaged 17 new cases per day
October - averaged 36 new cases per day - over double the month prior
November - so far, averaging 76 new cases per day - again, over double the previous month.
Correlation does not equal causation... but the what changed from August to October? Schools re-opening.

Except the actual research I posted above states that school reopening is NOT correlated with spread.

Except it wasn't research.
https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/11/03/schools-need-to-be-bolder-about-reopening.html - editorial
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/21/925794511/were-the-risks-of-reopening-schools-exaggerated - 2 were international studies, one from a daycare setting, plus "anecdotal." If you haven't noticed, schools in the US vary from schools in Europe. Plus in the Spain study, there was already high community spread, so it didn't really matter.
https://policylab.chop.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/publications/PolicyLab-Policy-Review-Evidence-Guidance-In-Person-Schooling-COVID-19-Nov-2020.pdf - not a study. Plus, the recommendation was:
"we would encourage continued reopening of schools in the absence of evidence of linked transmission occurring in schools within the area, and in the absence of rapidly accelerating community
transmission (i.e., quickly approaching or reaching 9% or greater test positivity)."
In my county, percent positivity went from 5% before school re-opening to 9% in November. So, it would recommend closure at this point in time.
So sorry your limited hasty "studies" don't apply to every school district in the US. And thanks for cherry picking studies that only support your argument. There's a lot more that don't.

Right - you're smarter and better in formed than the dean of Public Health at Brown, the experts at CHOP, and numerous researchers world-wide. Oh, and you're also smarter than countless private school administrators and parents, as well as the leadership of the entire nation of Germany.

But hey, I would welcome an actual, informed debate on this, but as you very well know, all we had was the teacher's unions screaming "IT'S NOT SAFE" in cities where all the wealthy white kids were going to private schools in person.

Actually, I am informed and used the words from the study against you. Helps if you actually read the study to see the conditions.

Way to miss the point. (As well as misrepresent that research, but you do you.)

Way to miss the point... I quoted the CHOP recommendations, which specifically point to percent positivity as a criteria... but hey, you do you.

Where did I disagree with the CHOP positivity recommendations? I didn't. What's uncontroverted is that in cities like DC and SF, we MET those criteria and still did not open. Because politics tilted towards the teachers union, and not towards children and parents.

As for you dismissing Dr. Jha's opinion -- well, that's pretty arrogant of you.

And moreover, my entire point is that these decisions should be made in consideration of the actual research and public health recommendations, which they quite clearly were not. They were decided based on local politics, not science or public health.

My point is there's plenty of research to support any argument/decision. Any school that reopened - or stay closed - or used hybrid - cherry picked research and professional opinions to support whatever model they decided to go with.
I'm not "dismissing" his opinion - but you called it research. Words have meaning... It's his opinion.