Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 11:42     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Numbers won't look "ridiculously good." MD is doing a great job but with the rest of the US doing so poorly our numbers will go up. People will start venturing out more and our numbers will go up. School will be totally DL by November. We are in a for a rough year.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 10:38     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:I'm sitting right here with my coffee and nothing to do and nowhere to go because I'm in isolation until I get my stupid COVID negative.

Name the countries that have successfully reopened schools and I will look up their new cases per million per day.

(Don't say Israel because they aren't doing so well.)


OK, I lied. I looked up one country for you at random (Belgium) and feel confident that schools are not reopening normally until cases are below 10 new cases per million per day.

They are reopening very very cautiously at 20 new cases per million per day.

No one is reopening at 60 new cases per million per day.

I got my data on daily new cases here:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide


I'm not a data scientist and also not that great at math, so there's always the chance I calculated something incorrectly so please correct me if you see a mistake.

But I am going to go do some housework and other fun stuff while I am isolating. I"ll check back here later this PM to see if you have a country for me that is reopening schools with spread like we have in Maryland.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 10:32     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
I will agree to anything Belgium did.

When our state gets down to 20 new cases per million per day, reopen as Belgium did for a fraction of students and even then only 2 days per week.

What the state gets down to 8 new cases per million per day, reopen as normal.


Belgium: Phase III started when cases were at about 20 new cases per million per day. (Maryland is at 70)


.
Phase 3 — May 18
Classes at school will resume part-time and only for selected years, with a maximum of 10 pupils per classroom. All staff and kids older than 12 will be required to wear face masks. Children and staff should wash hands when entering school, when entering the class, after sneezing and after using a drinks or snacks distributor.

Education in Belgium is governed by the country's Flemish and Francophone language communities (both active in Brussels), which have significant discretion over how rules are applied. In true Belgian tradition, education networks (such as the Catholic or community networks) or individual schools have interpreted the rules differently when providing practical guidelines, making it even more complex for parents.

In Flanders, classes resume for the first, second and last (sixth) year of primary school and the last (sixth) year of secondary school. In the Francophone part of Belgium, only the last years of both primary and secondary schools will partially reopen May 18. The first and second year of primary school and the second year of secondary school may reopen May 25.

Kindergartens and nursery schools will stay closed, at least until the end of May.

Ever since the closing of the schools at the start of the lockdown, schools were obliged to offer daycare for kids whose parents work in a number of crucial professions. Although some schools have told parents that concerned only health care (or supermarket) workers, the official list is actually much broader, including (but not limited to) journalists and communication professionals, judges and lawyers, diplomats or staff of international institutions.

On May 18, daycare will be, in addition, accessible for children whose parents "don't have other options" to take care of their kids while they work. The problem is that if this very broad category is added to the kids who will resume their classes on the same date, it could become difficult for some schools (especially in big cities) to guarantee the strict social-distancing rules.


https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-lifts-its-lockdown-what-is-allowed-and-when/
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 10:27     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
I just looked up one country, Belgium, because I know nothing about their situation.

They resumed classes on May 18th according to news reports. By my calculations at that time they had about 20 new cases per million per day.

The week prior they had this many cases:
284 + 307 + 81 + 146 + 340 + 294 + 318
7 day average new cases = 252

Population of Belgium roughly 11 million

So at the time they "reopend" schools they had about 252 new cases per day for 11 million people.

Or about 23 new cases per million, per day.

But classes were only attended by a fraction of students. Most did distance learning and up until end of school in June classes were only 2 days a week.

Now they are ready to reopen schools more normally (though it is summer break). THeir past week stats:

259 + 87 + 65 + 42 + 107 + 71

Daily average of new cases = 90 / 11 million = 8 new cases per million per day.



Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 10:23     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:The way the numbers are trending in MoCo (latest 7-day average is under 4.5%, hospitalization way down from 1700 to less than 400), and continuing to improve every week, I'm really having a hard time to grasp why we open indoor dining, bars, etc and yet close schools. I'm with you OP. I hope Hogan overrides this.


If we want to have school, we need to close indoor dining and bars.


It doesn't help that Virginia has already moved into Phase 3. We live in a transient area and DC, MD, and Northern Virginia (basically the DMV) should have collaborated their phasing. Have you seen how many cars go back and forth across the American Legion daily? It's a fools errand to think that this won't have an impact on us here in Montgomery County. I also agree that bars and gyms should have remained shut down except for outdoor gym programs. I think Maryland has done an fantastic job of trying to manage COVID-19, but there no border walls between states or counties. Don't forget all of the people running off to the beaches in MD and Delaware.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 10:11     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
I'm sitting right here with my coffee and nothing to do and nowhere to go because I'm in isolation until I get my stupid COVID negative.

Name the countries that have successfully reopened schools and I will look up their new cases per million per day.

(Don't say Israel because they aren't doing so well.)
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 10:08     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

Maryland is yellow. The key metrics are declining - positivity rates, hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths. Same with MoCo. That doesn't mean throw caution to the wind, but let's be intellectually honest.





But new cases per million per day is increasing. And Maryland is at 70 new cases per million per day. It's way too high. Germany is at 3.5 new cases per day.



There are many countries that opened up schools with numbers not at Germany level. You want to shut down everything until we reach Germany levels?


Please. Name them.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 10:02     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

Maryland is yellow. The key metrics are declining - positivity rates, hospitalizations, ICUs, and deaths. Same with MoCo. That doesn't mean throw caution to the wind, but let's be intellectually honest.





But new cases per million per day is increasing. And Maryland is at 70 new cases per million per day. It's way too high. Germany is at 3.5 new cases per day.



There are many countries that opened up schools with numbers not at Germany level. You want to shut down everything until we reach Germany levels?
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 09:55     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Well if we cannot have results within two days, I don't know how all these test-contact trace-isolate schemes are going to work, with people going to work and parties and living in dorm rooms.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 09:53     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:But I am assuming most people in my situation who get tested but feel asymptomatic or not very ill and are waiting 7 days for a test aren't really isolating. It defies logic that they are. This is a reason we know that you need quick test results to reduce spread.


Yeah, but no one has an accurate rapid test. You could get the processing time down, but right now there is not an accurate rapid test on the market.



There's no test results within three hours? My friend with COVID symptoms went to a site where she had to wait and got a negative test within 3 hours.


My understanding is those tests are not particularly accurate.

I know there are rapid tests on the market, but the accuracy is not terrific.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 09:52     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:But I am assuming most people in my situation who get tested but feel asymptomatic or not very ill and are waiting 7 days for a test aren't really isolating. It defies logic that they are. This is a reason we know that you need quick test results to reduce spread.


Yeah, but no one has an accurate rapid test. You could get the processing time down, but right now there is not an accurate rapid test on the market.



There's no test results within three hours? My friend with COVID symptoms went to a site where she had to wait and got a negative test within 3 hours.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 09:50     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:
You are tempted to go to the pool and shopping, but not so much to school. Got it.


Help me understand something about your comment. If a worker feels ill with COVID symptoms, and goes to get a COVID test, but the results take 7 days to return, and she feels better in the meantime -- do you want her to return to school if she feels better without the negative COVID test?

I know that this was what was required of health care workers -- they could work as long as they had no symptoms, right? But that was while the rest of the population was under strict lockdown.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 09:48     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:But I am assuming most people in my situation who get tested but feel asymptomatic or not very ill and are waiting 7 days for a test aren't really isolating. It defies logic that they are. This is a reason we know that you need quick test results to reduce spread.


Yeah, but no one has an accurate rapid test. You could get the processing time down, but right now there is not an accurate rapid test on the market.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 09:47     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
But I am assuming most people in my situation who get tested but feel asymptomatic or not very ill and are waiting 7 days for a test aren't really isolating. It defies logic that they are. This is a reason we know that you need quick test results to reduce spread.
Anonymous
Post 07/11/2020 09:45     Subject: Re:Any chance if numbers are ridiculously good in August Hogan will override Smith?
Anonymous wrote:
You are tempted to go to the pool and shopping, but not so much to school. Got it.


I feel fine now; my level of illness is such that if school were in session I'd certainly be back at work.

But not if I was told to stay in isolation until my COVID test came back, which is what I was told -- because we know COVID can spread even if you are feeling OK.