Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Life goes on. After an 8 week period during the 1918-19 Spanish Flu the flu died off. People moved on with their lives.

This is wildly, laughably wrong. The Spanish flu had 3 major waves in the US starting in 1918 and continuing until 1920. The second -- which came as restrictions were being relaxed -- killed most people, but people were still dying from the Spanish flu in 1920.

Agreed.

Dr. Fauci said yesterday that a fall wave is "inevitable." We will have at least one more wave and possibly two.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lots of details about their plans too. How could colleges afford to have social distancing in classes and dorm rooms (podcast says all singles, no roommates)? How would they have room for that?

And what happens when one person in a dorm inevitably gets it? They’d have to evacuate everyone, right? But then where do those kids go?

With the flu, some schools move kids out of the dorms and into a sick bay in the campus health center.

I think this guy is full of sh*t. It's easy to say he has spoken with "many" universities and professors without naming names. It's like when Trump says "many people are saying...". I can tell you first hand that there is a lot of concern among professors about going back to campus in the fall and all the risks that it brings. Universities are under pressure to get students to enroll for the fall. Mine has opened up fall registration without telling students that at least some courses are very likely to be switched to online. In order to do social distancing they are going to have fewer students per course AND fewer overall courses to allow extra time for cleaning between classes. There is no way to do this without a significant number of courses moving to the online format. They do not have the details worked out yet, at all. They want students to commit first, then worry about the details later.

I hope there is a follow-up to this. It was very informative but perhaps premature.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I almost think it's more of an optimistic outlook to think colleges won't open. If they do, it will be putting their financial interests over public health.

I really object to the Public health vs financial interests argument. The economy includes public health interests.

I agree. All the more reason colleges shouldn't go back.

It’s why they should.

If everything reopens to save the economy then we have a huge second wave, that just hurts the economy more.

I'm in a risk category, but even I want the economy to open back up because so many people will be homeless or not have food. You can't possibly think they will keep the economy closed continuously through fall.

If we had a national social welfare plan we would be coping better. Not perfectly, but better. Instead we have the states competing with each other and handling state by state issues that could have been handled centrally -- such as by a military "quartermaster" type of program for supplies, with a temporary income for those who need it. Instead we got "let the states get their own supplies" and $1200 one-time checks, which are not an income. And fat-walleted companies getting approved for funds intended to help small businesses. And so on. The result will be reopening followed by resurgence of the virus and far worse economic and health outcomes than we've already seen so far.

I'd love to say that science will save the day because I know doctors and researchers are working as fast as they can; however, I have no confidence that once there is a treatment drug and/or vaccine, the administration will know how to get it out to everyone, everywhere, quickly. They'll leave it to states and to insurance companies and people will miss out.

Even in a big city like Boston, the off-campus housing market would be pretty rough if colleges couldn't house their current numbers on campus. >30 colleges.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Colleges desperately want to re-open. Few can afford the financial hit if classes are online in fall: they will lose tuitions.

If states/localities allow them to open, they will open. They will not be more cautious than governments.

That said, they may well open with changed rules (renting extra space so kids aren't crowded in dorms, alternating live class attendance with Zoom days to reduce classroom crowding, making kids reserve times in cafeterias, etc.)

- Working in higher ed

The first thing they should get rid of is any requirement that kids live on campus, even for freshmen. I didn't live on campus and had an amazing undergrad experience. That way, nervous parents can choose to get a one bedroom apartment for their kids, or whatever they are comfortable with. Having said that, there's really no way to truly contain covid 19 on a college campus. Kids are going to hang out in close proximity together outside of classes. The living alone aspect would provide a sense of security (albeit a false one) for parents who are on the fence.

You don't realize that not every college is located in an area with enough available rental stock to house all the students you'd be talking about tossing into the private rental market. Even students who want to live off campus can't necessarily find rentals.

Some colleges are in small towns. Others, like our DD's college, are in large town/small city areas with some apartments and houses but nowhere near enough to accommodate the numbers of students you'd like to see renting under your scenario.

Anonymous wrote:Life goes on. After an 8 week period during the 1918-19 Spanish Flu the flu died off. People moved on with their lives.

This is wildly, laughably wrong. The Spanish flu had 3 major waves in the US starting in 1918 and continuing until 1920. The second -- which came as restrictions were being relaxed -- killed most people, but people were still dying from the Spanish flu in 1920.

Anonymous wrote:Wuhan China who originated this virus was able to open up their 8 million person city after 8-10 weeks. Business is getting back to normal with some restrictions particularly on in bound travel to prevent reinfection.

Everyone had to wear a mask if they went out during those ten weeks. Have you been to a grocery store here lately? Many people without masks. Everything was locked down. Here I saw a police officer breaking up a soccer game one one of the public fields yesterday. You have our VP and President walking around without masks. That would not happen in China. You can't compare the two situations.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I almost think it's more of an optimistic outlook to think colleges won't open. If they do, it will be putting their financial interests over public health.

I really object to the Public health vs financial interests argument. The economy includes public health interests.

I agree. All the more reason colleges shouldn't go back.

It’s why they should.

If everything reopens to save the economy then we have a huge second wave, that just hurts the economy more.

I'm in a risk category, but even I want the economy to open back up because so many people will be homeless or not have food. You can't possibly think they will keep the economy closed continuously through fall.

Anonymous wrote:Colleges desperately want to re-open. Few can afford the financial hit if classes are online in fall: they will lose tuitions.

If states/localities allow them to open, they will open. They will not be more cautious than governments.

That said, they may well open with changed rules (renting extra space so kids aren't crowded in dorms, alternating live class attendance with Zoom days to reduce classroom crowding, making kids reserve times in cafeterias, etc.)

- Working in higher ed

The first thing they should get rid of is any requirement that kids live on campus, even for freshmen. I didn't live on campus and had an amazing undergrad experience. That way, nervous parents can choose to get a one bedroom apartment for their kids, or whatever they are comfortable with. Having said that, there's really no way to truly contain covid 19 on a college campus. Kids are going to hang out in close proximity together outside of classes. The living alone aspect would provide a sense of security (albeit a false one) for parents who are on the fence.

Really good outline of the options colleges are considering:

https://insidehighered.com/digital-learning/blogs/learning-innovation/15-fall-scenarios?fbclid=IwAR2RbHJZVXnNJyjOezISHd5LgOLO48ypgOwApHYUbrVdKa_kk5mJHZuNAxI#.XqGrxqhHJeU.facebook

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's a money thing.

Brown's President spoke this week about the SERIOUS financial difficulty facing schools this Fall.

https://www.wpri.com/news/education/colleges-could-permanently-close-if-they-dont-reopen-this-fall-brown-u-president-warns/

“Even before the coronavirus pandemic there were predictions that large numbers of universities and colleges would have to close for financial reasons in the coming decade,” Paxson said in a Zoom interview Sunday evening. “A lot of them were teetering on the brink financially, and this is the kind of thing that if a university or a small college has to go an entire semester without tuition, room and board, I don’t see how they make it.”



I'm not sure Brown is hurting but there are certainly some smaller schools that might find themselves in trouble with Fall's revenue.

Actually, the smaller private schools may be less in danger as they have smaller numbers to fill, smaller budgets to cover and more control over adapting to the virus. I'm most worried about the mid-sized/larger schools that got beyond their skis in the competitive college arms race and the non-flagship public colleges in states with no funds to bail them out.

I think all schools will face different challenges, but yeah I'd probably be most worried if I were Ohio State.

Anonymous wrote:It's a money thing.

Brown's President spoke this week about the SERIOUS financial difficulty facing schools this Fall.

https://www.wpri.com/news/education/colleges-could-permanently-close-if-they-dont-reopen-this-fall-brown-u-president-warns/

“Even before the coronavirus pandemic there were predictions that large numbers of universities and colleges would have to close for financial reasons in the coming decade,” Paxson said in a Zoom interview Sunday evening. “A lot of them were teetering on the brink financially, and this is the kind of thing that if a university or a small college has to go an entire semester without tuition, room and board, I don’t see how they make it.”



I'm not sure Brown is hurting but there are certainly some smaller schools that might find themselves in trouble with Fall's revenue.

Actually, the smaller private schools may be less in danger as they have smaller numbers to fill, smaller budgets to cover and more control over adapting to the virus. I'm most worried about the mid-sized/larger schools that got beyond their skis in the competitive college arms race and the non-flagship public colleges in states with no funds to bail them out.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That guy has so many facts wrong, I had to stop reading. NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THE VIRUS IS GOING TO DO. It may start coming back in a couple of weeks with all the dumsh*t states reopening. Look at Germany - they started easing social distancing and now the number of cases is starting to tick up again.

No one - except Tony Fauci and Bill Gates - seems to be able to wrap their brain around how different and how serious this virus is. Sure, you can reopen colleges and dorms, but how many seriously ill and dead college students, professors, and food service workers will you accept? One, two, ten, twenty? And say you have an outbreak at the University of Mississippi - do they have enough medical capacity to handle 5000 sick students?

You seem incredibly naive and angry. Maybe listen again slowly, it is valuable information that was disclaimed 100x over as "no one knows for certain what will happen -- this is their plan though" etc etc,

Spivey is a terrible hack. The only thing he is good for is leaking US News rankings for law schools.