Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All Hardy feeder schools have great principals and involved parents.

It is naive (and shows a poor knowledge of dynamics at these schools) to think that ES feeder school will allow new OB entrants in 5th grade to keep enrollment high. OB slots are given in lower grades, not at higher grades.

This is what it is safe and considerate to state that kids from feeder schools are academically stronger, as most of them have spent at least 4 years in one of the feeder ES.

School budgets are based on the # of pupils in the school. None of the schools will leave $ on the table if they have space for a few more 5th graders.

Anonymous wrote:OP here again.

Related to this point, Mann and Stoddert are adding second 5th grade classes next year. Hyde is adding a third 5th grade class. Key has two 5th grade classes as well.

Compared to the numbers from my previous post, the pool of Hardy students from feeders is expected to expand significantly (based upon these class allocations) next year. That means the best prediction of when Hardy will "flip" is likely after next year.

These data are from http://dcps.dc.gov/DCPS/About+DCPS/Budget+and+Finance/FY16+Fiscal+Report+Card/Initial+School+Budget+Allocations.

If someone has last year's allocations, please compare.

Anonymous wrote:All Hardy feeder schools have great principals and involved parents.

It is naive (and shows a poor knowledge of dynamics at these schools) to think that ES feeder school will allow new OB entrants in 5th grade to keep enrollment high. OB slots are given in lower grades, not at higher grades.

This is what it is safe and considerate to state that kids from feeder schools are academically stronger, as most of them have spent at least 4 years in one of the feeder ES.

Anonymous wrote:OP here.

It is not correct to say that Hardy feeders take in new OOB students in 5th grade to replace those who depart. 5th grade class sizes are simply smaller.

For example,
Mann goes from 46 in 2nd, to 41 in 3rd to 43 in 4th to 18 students in 5th grade.
Key goes from 60 to 61 to 56 to 37.
Stoddert goes from 79 to 62 to 60 to 22.
Hyde goes from 53 to 58 to 54 to 32.

All of these data are from the initial link provided in the first post.

Concerns over hypothetical "new OOB kids" who are unprepared is a false trope. New students are not being added in upper grades at Hardy feeders.

Anonymous wrote:OP here.

It is not correct to say that Hardy feeders take in new OOB students in 5th grade to replace those who depart. 5th grade class sizes are simply smaller.

For example,
Mann goes from 46 in 2nd, to 41 in 3rd to 43 in 4th to 18 students in 5th grade.
Key goes from 60 to 61 to 56 to 37.
Stoddert goes from 79 to 62 to 60 to 22.
Hyde goes from 53 to 58 to 54 to 32.

All of these data are from the initial link provided in the first post.

Concerns over hypothetical "new OOB kids" who are unprepared is a false trope. New students are not being added in upper grades at Hardy feeders.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:People seem to be talking about the alternative to Hardy only in terms of private school. Latin and Basis (and perhaps other charters) are important variables too. I'd love to see the percentage of how many families IB for Hardy entered the lottery for their rising 5th graders. I'm going to guess it's in the 80-90% range. There is no financial cost to play the lottery and if you accept a spot that you win there is no financial cost in terms of tuition, so why not see how your child does and potentially expand your options? And inevitably a number of those families who are IB for Hardy will take the Latin or Basis option when offered, thus decreasing the 5th grade numbers at the Hardy feeder elementary (keep in mind those IB families can decide at any time that they want to go to Hardy. By enrolling at Basis, they don't relinquish their right to Hardy or the elementary feeder). And once that Hardy feeder school realizes they have lost x number of 5th graders, it may go to the waitlist to add children to 5th grade (in order to make enrollment and budget targets). And those children from the waitlist come to the school with unknown education histories. Some of those kids who join a Hardy feeder at 5th grade will be prepared and test well. Some may not. But this is for sure...they will be going to Hardy, because getting access to Hardy was likely a big reason why that family was willing to jump to a new elementary school for just one grade. So, know this...IB families at feeder elementaries will be looking at the 5th grade classes and trying to determine if those are kids they want their kids to be with in 6th grade. So it's not just about getting 5th grade families to make a pact to go to Hardy, it's about stopping the exodus after 4th grade.

And if you're IB for Hardy, you're automatically IB for Wilson, so you can leave the DCPS system for 3-4 years to attend a charter middle and then come back by right (if they don't want to do high school at the charter). That is not an option for a family like mine...we attend a Hardy feeder school OOB and if we want our children to have Wilson as an option, we have to commit to Hardy because if we leave for Latin or Basis, we take ourselves out of the feeder path. So are committed to going to Hardy because we are encouraged by what is going on there (thanks for affirming this plan, OP, with the data analysis) and because we want Wilson to be an option for us.

Some good points here, especially the one about entrants in 5th grade due to departures for charters and privates. This is important because many posters in these Hardy threads, and even the Hardy principal, like to use the feeder school percentage. The rationale usually given is that OOB in feeders are as well prepared as IB kids. But this assumes that OOB kids have been at the feeder for all ES, which as you explain may not always be the case.

Also good to keep in mind your point that OOB families who enter a feeder with plans for Wilson, are committed to Hardy, whereas IB families can opt out for MS and return for HS.

Related question re: OOB families, if there was no Rhee feeder right to Wilson, would Hardy still be as popular for OOB families? Not trying to stir the pot on the feeder issue, just wondering if in fact there are OOB families that are not keen on Hardy but see it as the only entry to Wilson, now that Deal and Wilson do not take OOB except via feeders.

Anonymous wrote:People seem to be talking about the alternative to Hardy only in terms of private school. Latin and Basis (and perhaps other charters) are important variables too. I'd love to see the percentage of how many families IB for Hardy entered the lottery for their rising 5th graders. I'm going to guess it's in the 80-90% range. There is no financial cost to play the lottery and if you accept a spot that you win there is no financial cost in terms of tuition, so why not see how your child does and potentially expand your options? And inevitably a number of those families who are IB for Hardy will take the Latin or Basis option when offered, thus decreasing the 5th grade numbers at the Hardy feeder elementary (keep in mind those IB families can decide at any time that they want to go to Hardy. By enrolling at Basis, they don't relinquish their right to Hardy or the elementary feeder). And once that Hardy feeder school realizes they have lost x number of 5th graders, it may go to the waitlist to add children to 5th grade (in order to make enrollment and budget targets). And those children from the waitlist come to the school with unknown education histories. Some of those kids who join a Hardy feeder at 5th grade will be prepared and test well. Some may not. But this is for sure...they will be going to Hardy, because getting access to Hardy was likely a big reason why that family was willing to jump to a new elementary school for just one grade. So, know this...IB families at feeder elementaries will be looking at the 5th grade classes and trying to determine if those are kids they want their kids to be with in 6th grade. So it's not just about getting 5th grade families to make a pact to go to Hardy, it's about stopping the exodus after 4th grade.

And if you're IB for Hardy, you're automatically IB for Wilson, so you can leave the DCPS system for 3-4 years to attend a charter middle and then come back by right (if they don't want to do high school at the charter). That is not an option for a family like mine...we attend a Hardy feeder school OOB and if we want our children to have Wilson as an option, we have to commit to Hardy because if we leave for Latin or Basis, we take ourselves out of the feeder path. So are committed to going to Hardy because we are encouraged by what is going on there (thanks for affirming this plan, OP, with the data analysis) and because we want Wilson to be an option for us.

Anonymous wrote:Just one edit to my very last paragraph. I should have said, people with money, who are at least somewhat risk averse. Risk aversion is commonly assumed, and I think it's a valid assumption here. Why take a risk or accept compromise when private school or Bethesda are reasonably within reach, albeit not without some cost?

OP here. I know I need to reply. It will take me a while. Later afternoon or tonight at the earliest. I'm not ducking you.