Anonymous wrote:They can cash in on their gentrification bet when they do. And no, price appreciation in gentrifying neighborhoods has almost nothing to do with schools. Just look at Bloomingdale. It has a lot to do with rapid changes in racial and income demographics and the opening of attractive restaurant and retail.

mostly I agree, but I would point out that lots of the people buying in Bloomingdale et al are doing so because prices in WOTP and the better parts of the Hill are so high. If home prices west of the park went down by 20% that would cut into the momentum for gentrification EOTP.

OTOH I'm not sure declines of 20% or more WOTP are possible even if the schools get very bad. There are enough gays/emptynesters/childless folks who are either living in the burbs, or or living in condos, who would buy SFHs if the prices came down, I think.

The current system isn't good, but there's no evidence it isn't sustainable. The current boundary review has shown that chronic crowding and underutilization is more politically palatable than change.

To get back to the original question, yes then here situation is unsustainable in just about all ways. As PP described, Ward 3 schools used to have a lot of OOB openings and one could get in with persistence. Now not so much. The lack of desirable schools is still all too few. And too many kids are simply failing. Overcrowding in some school, empty buildings elsewhere.

All of that is unsustainable.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is not a matter of being less worthy, it is a matter of knowing what the facts on the ground are. I think it is amazing/great/fabulous/understandable/whatever that the city is being gentrified and families are staying and revitalizing the city in many ways. The facts are that most schools outside wards 2, 3 and 4 with a few exceptions have long been abysmal failures, similar to many urban areas outside DC. This is not solely the result of failed dcps policies and this is information that is widely available. Of course the city needs to improve the schools for all, but that is a long term task at this point. The reason that some dcps schools have thrived is that they have had a different cohort of families over the long term, which results in a long history of involved parents and prepared students.

The only point I was supporting was the idea that parents knew what they were getting into or should have. I have extreme sympathy for the dilemma but not for the position that parents did not decide to place themselves in that deli a to solve. Again, I am not speaking here to parents that have been proposed to be zoned out of successful schools or famies that do not have real choices in where they live. And by having no choices I don't mean parents that bought a condo in a gentrifying neighborhood and are underwater or educated parents that work for non profits and refuse to move to nova (where they could afford to live in a decent school district) because of the commute.

When the kids who are currently at Deal were born, Deal was still kind of iffy. Their families didn't plan, they just got lucky. The families who planned are in Montgomery County or private.

I wrote the post you are responding to and you are partially correct. Deal and Wilson have have been decent schools for many years, but the percentage of inbound families that used them was lower. Neither was as desirable as they currently are. I live in AU Park and have educated neighbors whose kids went all the way through Janney, Deal Wilson and are now college graduates. As they would tell me when my children were toddlers, at Wilson you need to be more aware of who your children's teachers are and involved and they can thrive.

When we bought our house we were pregnant and thought we had 12 years before we would have to move under any circumstances, as I was not convinced that we would send our children to Deal and the elementary schools used to go to 6th grade. So I was clearly cognizant of the middle school issue. To say that we did not plan is incorrect, however, because that plan included the option of moving. When my oldest was in K we used to talk amongst the parents of the need to reach a tipping point with the feeder elementary schools. That tipping point happened. We are still two years away from Deal and it has improved beyond my hopes. That increase in desirability,however, happened because or strong administration and programming, engagement with the community by the school, more and more families like mine (and possibly yours) taking the plunge, and the "tipping point" effect/momentum. But Deal was neve a non-starter in the way that many of the schools that are complained about long have been. No one but families in Bethesda and Arlington would have asserted at the time we bought our house that I was gambling with my children's education.

Anonymous wrote:It is not a matter of being less worthy, it is a matter of knowing what the facts on the ground are. I think it is amazing/great/fabulous/understandable/whatever that the city is being gentrified and families are staying and revitalizing the city in many ways. The facts are that most schools outside wards 2, 3 and 4 with a few exceptions have long been abysmal failures, similar to many urban areas outside DC. This is not solely the result of failed dcps policies and this is information that is widely available. Of course the city needs to improve the schools for all, but that is a long term task at this point. The reason that some dcps schools have thrived is that they have had a different cohort of families over the long term, which results in a long history of involved parents and prepared students.

The only point I was supporting was the idea that parents knew what they were getting into or should have. I have extreme sympathy for the dilemma but not for the position that parents did not decide to place themselves in that deli a to solve. Again, I am not speaking here to parents that have been proposed to be zoned out of successful schools or famies that do not have real choices in where they live. And by having no choices I don't mean parents that bought a condo in a gentrifying neighborhood and are underwater or educated parents that work for non profits and refuse to move to nova (where they could afford to live in a decent school district) because of the commute.

When the kids who are currently at Deal were born, Deal was still kind of iffy. Their families didn't plan, they just got lucky. The families who planned are in Montgomery County or private.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is not a matter of being less worthy, it is a matter of knowing what the facts on the ground are. I think it is amazing/great/fabulous/understandable/whatever that the city is being gentrified and families are staying and revitalizing the city in many ways. The facts are that most schools outside wards 2, 3 and 4 with a few exceptions have long been abysmal failures, similar to many urban areas outside DC. This is not solely the result of failed dcps policies and this is information that is widely available. Of course the city needs to improve the schools for all, but that is a long term task at this point. The reason that some dcps schools have thrived is that they have had a different cohort of families over the long term, which results in a long history of involved parents and prepared students.

The only point I was supporting was the idea that parents knew what they were getting into or should have. I have extreme sympathy for the dilemma but not for the position that parents did not decide to place themselves in that deli a to solve. Again, I am not speaking here to parents that have been proposed to be zoned out of successful schools or famies that do not have real choices in where they live. And by having no choices I don't mean parents that bought a condo in a gentrifying neighborhood and are underwater or educated parents that work for non profits and refuse to move to nova (where they could afford to live in a decent school district) because of the commute.

+100

There are some people in the city who really have no options, but they don't generally post on DCUM. There seem to be many who have options (for example, could live in Silver Spring or less expensive parts of Fairfax), but prefer to buy in a gentrifying area of DC. This can be a great real estate investment but the trade-off is the schools.

It's not a great real estate investment unless the schools also get better -- which I think most gentrifying families were counting on when they bought their homes -- lured by the rhetoric of Michelle Rhee. I hope parents are not still expecting or demanding miracles, even though the promised one did not materialize.

PP here.

If this is true, it doesn't describe anyone I know. I've had a number of friends, colleagues and acquaintances buy houses and condos over the past few years. Those who have or are planning to have children research the schools carefully and make the decision accordingly. Some have high enough incomes that they don't need to make any trade-offs: Bethesda, Arlington, Deal feeder, Oyster. Others have to make more of a trade-off. Silver Spring is a great option for more affordable houses/condos and decent schools. There are parts of Fairfax and Arlington that are also reasonably priced with good schools. Some people have opted for very small condos in good school neighborhoods, choosing to sacrifice space.

Those who don't care about schools have bought in places like Bloomingdale, Columbia Heights/Park View, Brookland, Petworth.

And then there are those who do plan to have kids but bought in gentrifying areas anyway. Their plan, in their own words, is to:

1) not worry about it too much for now because we're not even trying to get pregnant yet
2) maybe go charter or attend the local school until K and see how it goes. Maybe it will be better by then, but we're not optimistic honestly
3) move out to the suburbs, which we really don't want to do right now before it's necessary, but realize we'll have to do at some point for the schools, definitely for middle school and probably earlier

I don't personally know anyone who has expressed the following opinion about those gentrifying areas: For sure, the schools will be just fine in a few years when it matters to us. Michelle Rhee told us so! I have never heard anything like this. People know the score when it comes to DC schools, and they realize they may need to move to the suburbs. They can cash in on their gentrification bet when they do. And no, price appreciation in gentrifying neighborhoods has almost nothing to do with schools. Just look at Bloomingdale. It has a lot to do with rapid changes in racial and income demographics and the opening of attractive restaurant and retail.

Note that in all of this I am NOT talking about people who bought in a good district and are now facing re-zoning to a worse school, and I am NOT talking about people who truly have no choice in the matter. Those are totally different issues. I am talking about people who have options and choose to buy in gentrifying urban areas with bad schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is not a matter of being less worthy, it is a matter of knowing what the facts on the ground are. I think it is amazing/great/fabulous/understandable/whatever that the city is being gentrified and families are staying and revitalizing the city in many ways. The facts are that most schools outside wards 2, 3 and 4 with a few exceptions have long been abysmal failures, similar to many urban areas outside DC. This is not solely the result of failed dcps policies and this is information that is widely available. Of course the city needs to improve the schools for all, but that is a long term task at this point. The reason that some dcps schools have thrived is that they have had a different cohort of families over the long term, which results in a long history of involved parents and prepared students.

The only point I was supporting was the idea that parents knew what they were getting into or should have. I have extreme sympathy for the dilemma but not for the position that parents did not decide to place themselves in that deli a to solve. Again, I am not speaking here to parents that have been proposed to be zoned out of successful schools or famies that do not have real choices in where they live. And by having no choices I don't mean parents that bought a condo in a gentrifying neighborhood and are underwater or educated parents that work for non profits and refuse to move to nova (where they could afford to live in a decent school district) because of the commute.

+100

There are some people in the city who really have no options, but they don't generally post on DCUM. There seem to be many who have options (for example, could live in Silver Spring or less expensive parts of Fairfax), but prefer to buy in a gentrifying area of DC. This can be a great real estate investment but the trade-off is the schools.

It's not a great real estate investment unless the schools also get better -- which I think most gentrifying families were counting on when they bought their homes -- lured by the rhetoric of Michelle Rhee. I hope parents are not still expecting or demanding miracles, even though the promised one did not materialize.

Not true. Plenty of real estate in DC has been a great investment, doubling or more in value, in spite of the schools. You're looking at it only through your own lens of value.

Yes, it's doubled, but what will happen when you try to sell it to another family with children? Not all the big houses can be sold to empty nesters, gay couples and families opting in advance for private schools or taking a chance on charters.

Check out "white flight" in the 50's to get a sense of what can happen when real estate owners lose confidence in the schools. That's where all your great deals in housing came from.

You want a great place to live, a great investment and a great neighborhood school for your kids?? better mobilize to get it from the city government that supposedly works for you.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is not a matter of being less worthy, it is a matter of knowing what the facts on the ground are. I think it is amazing/great/fabulous/understandable/whatever that the city is being gentrified and families are staying and revitalizing the city in many ways. The facts are that most schools outside wards 2, 3 and 4 with a few exceptions have long been abysmal failures, similar to many urban areas outside DC. This is not solely the result of failed dcps policies and this is information that is widely available. Of course the city needs to improve the schools for all, but that is a long term task at this point. The reason that some dcps schools have thrived is that they have had a different cohort of families over the long term, which results in a long history of involved parents and prepared students.

The only point I was supporting was the idea that parents knew what they were getting into or should have. I have extreme sympathy for the dilemma but not for the position that parents did not decide to place themselves in that deli a to solve. Again, I am not speaking here to parents that have been proposed to be zoned out of successful schools or famies that do not have real choices in where they live. And by having no choices I don't mean parents that bought a condo in a gentrifying neighborhood and are underwater or educated parents that work for non profits and refuse to move to nova (where they could afford to live in a decent school district) because of the commute.

+100

There are some people in the city who really have no options, but they don't generally post on DCUM. There seem to be many who have options (for example, could live in Silver Spring or less expensive parts of Fairfax), but prefer to buy in a gentrifying area of DC. This can be a great real estate investment but the trade-off is the schools.

It's not a great real estate investment unless the schools also get better -- which I think most gentrifying families were counting on when they bought their homes -- lured by the rhetoric of Michelle Rhee. I hope parents are not still expecting or demanding miracles, even though the promised one did not materialize.

Not true. Plenty of real estate in DC has been a great investment, doubling or more in value, in spite of the schools. You're looking at it only through your own lens of value.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is not a matter of being less worthy, it is a matter of knowing what the facts on the ground are. I think it is amazing/great/fabulous/understandable/whatever that the city is being gentrified and families are staying and revitalizing the city in many ways. The facts are that most schools outside wards 2, 3 and 4 with a few exceptions have long been abysmal failures, similar to many urban areas outside DC. This is not solely the result of failed dcps policies and this is information that is widely available. Of course the city needs to improve the schools for all, but that is a long term task at this point. The reason that some dcps schools have thrived is that they have had a different cohort of families over the long term, which results in a long history of involved parents and prepared students.

The only point I was supporting was the idea that parents knew what they were getting into or should have. I have extreme sympathy for the dilemma but not for the position that parents did not decide to place themselves in that deli a to solve. Again, I am not speaking here to parents that have been proposed to be zoned out of successful schools or famies that do not have real choices in where they live. And by having no choices I don't mean parents that bought a condo in a gentrifying neighborhood and are underwater or educated parents that work for non profits and refuse to move to nova (where they could afford to live in a decent school district) because of the commute.

+100

There are some people in the city who really have no options, but they don't generally post on DCUM. There seem to be many who have options (for example, could live in Silver Spring or less expensive parts of Fairfax), but prefer to buy in a gentrifying area of DC. This can be a great real estate investment but the trade-off is the schools.

It's not a great real estate investment unless the schools also get better -- which I think most gentrifying families were counting on when they bought their homes -- lured by the rhetoric of Michelle Rhee. I hope parents are not still expecting or demanding miracles, even though the promised one did not materialize.

Thanks, pps, for keeping this conversation unusually civil.

Anonymous wrote:It is not a matter of being less worthy, it is a matter of knowing what the facts on the ground are. I think it is amazing/great/fabulous/understandable/whatever that the city is being gentrified and families are staying and revitalizing the city in many ways. The facts are that most schools outside wards 2, 3 and 4 with a few exceptions have long been abysmal failures, similar to many urban areas outside DC. This is not solely the result of failed dcps policies and this is information that is widely available. Of course the city needs to improve the schools for all, but that is a long term task at this point. The reason that some dcps schools have thrived is that they have had a different cohort of families over the long term, which results in a long history of involved parents and prepared students.

The only point I was supporting was the idea that parents knew what they were getting into or should have. I have extreme sympathy for the dilemma but not for the position that parents did not decide to place themselves in that deli a to solve. Again, I am not speaking here to parents that have been proposed to be zoned out of successful schools or famies that do not have real choices in where they live. And by having no choices I don't mean parents that bought a condo in a gentrifying neighborhood and are underwater or educated parents that work for non profits and refuse to move to nova (where they could afford to live in a decent school district) because of the commute.

+100

There are some people in the city who really have no options, but they don't generally post on DCUM. There seem to be many who have options (for example, could live in Silver Spring or less expensive parts of Fairfax), but prefer to buy in a gentrifying area of DC. This can be a great real estate investment but the trade-off is the schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think the new application middle school at Ron Brown is an attempt to address these exact issues, by aggregating and separating out the "others" referred to above -- the kids ready to learn at or near grade level, without significant behavior issues, who are now being hurt by being grouped together with their unprepared/unruly peers.

Where are you getting this information? DCPS says Ron Brown is CLOSING this year.

It's in the latest DME proposal.

They are opening a new application middle school ease of the river. I participated in a survey about it: under what circumstances would you send your child to an application middle school in Ward 7 or 8? Does it depend on transportation, curriculum etc.

Anonymous wrote:I think the new application middle school at Ron Brown is an attempt to address these exact issues, by aggregating and separating out the "others" referred to above -- the kids ready to learn at or near grade level, without significant behavior issues, who are now being hurt by being grouped together with their unprepared/unruly peers.

Where are you getting this information? DCPS says Ron Brown is CLOSING this year.

I think the new application middle school at Ron Brown is an attempt to address these exact issues, by aggregating and separating out the "others" referred to above -- the kids ready to learn at or near grade level, without significant behavior issues, who are now being hurt by being grouped together with their unprepared/unruly peers.