Anonymous wrote:Unless PE imports a bunch of migrant labor, that's not going to happen. We're talking AI resistant, not "whatabout if we imported millions of South American laborers". Different problem.

But yeah, if we flop back to open borders AND see increasing AI use? Well, yeah, we're all going to be serfs.

Anonymous wrote:Keep doing what you're doing then. The Amish (spiritual cousins of the Mennonites) are the fastest-growing demographic in the country, but you say it's impossible for them to have secure jobs.

The bottom line is that they never left the trades, they don't spend ostentatiously, and they enter the workforce at 14 and never look back.

"Impossible" my @ss.

Anonymous wrote:Unless PE imports a bunch of migrant labor, that's not going to happen. We're talking AI resistant, not "whatabout if we imported millions of South American laborers". Different problem.

But yeah, if we flop back to open borders AND see increasing AI use? Well, yeah, we're all going to be serfs.

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

This is one of those things like when people say "if you don't like working for minimum wage, just find a better job" that while it can be true for anybody, it cannot be true for everybody.

Yes, many blue collar workers successfully transition into management or ownership, but it's impossible for everyone to do it because every step up the ladder you go, you're winnowing out multiple people. You hand wave the winnowed away saying they are drunks and divorcees but there are assuredly plenty of people for whom they were not able to become managers or owners simply because there aren't enough of those job available for every single blue collar worker to transition into.

I'm the PP about the trades. My perspective comes from having grown up conservative Mennonite. Blue collar isn't just an option in those circles, it's universal unless you leave the church (which my family did, no hard feelings, wonderful people). It's not what you're thinking regarding becoming a manager by some kind of stiff competition, and where you borrow 7 figures from the bank to launch your DC house-building company. It's incremental progress, starting in your teens, zero debt, hiring people you know and trust, organically building a book of repeat clients and a great reputation, etc. By middle age it is then commonplace (in those circles) to have a well-established small business that doesn't do anything fancy except build quality stuff at fair prices. It is also commonplace for the guy in his 40s to not be thrashing his body at this point.

Yes people get injured sometimes, but on the other hand, nobody is clinically depressed or alcoholic or hitting his wife, etc.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are being complacent, but for those of us in middle age, there's nothing to do except dance until the music stops.

I'm 44. If I could do it over I would be a house builder. But 44 is too late to start that journey.

If you had started in construction at 20, what would you do at 44+ when your body is giving out? An economy dependent on manual labor requires a robust social safety net. That's why there were so many union actions before the tech revolution.

Our politicians want everybody (else) in manual jobs but they don't want the workplace safety, healthcare, pensions, etc that people literally fought and died to get in order to make those jobs tolerable.

This is a common myth among people unfamiliar with the trades. Owner-operators and small businesses are very common in the building trades. I'm not saying it's easy, but it's a non-white collar path with some security and inherent value. A lot of my friends who started in construction in their late teens (when I also worked construction in the summer) are owners of small-mid construction businesses now. Basically, anybody who didn't get sidelined by heavy drinking or a nasty divorce is in a very comfortable situation. So am I, but I wouldn't recommend my white-collar route to my son with AI coming fast.

Very comfortable situation? I call bs. Some are but without a doubt they don't have reasonable retirement savings and no matching contributions etc. Their retirement, unless they can sell their business for a significant profit, is bleak.