Anonymous
02/06/2025 15:40
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The contract work isn’t going anywhere longterm. Elon and Bezos make a ton of money on contracts. Part of the plan is probably to take the federal workforce down to a skeleton crew precisely so contractors like AWS and SpaceX can eat up even more of the spending.
This. Why are these zillionares so close to Trump now and some are looking to buy homes here? DC isn't necessarily a vacation spot for the ultra wealthy. They are here to get closer to the government's teet and divert as much of its flow into their direction.. This is absolutely guaranteed to happen and anyone who uses basic logic can see what's going on. The only question remains whether these new opportunities will be created in DC metro or will be entirely relocated to other areas. My guess is both will happen. They aren't going to trash DC, they will leverage whatever is here as it's also going to save money. People who are already trained, know their way around the systems, infrastructure and offices already existing and empty and waiting, transit system and affluence providing nice things high earning employees are going to appreciate.
No, they are here to run the government. It’s been a long time coming, they believe government is for profit and not for what it is meant to be, serves the public. It seems we’re moving towards no separation between, government, church and business.
I agree that’s why, but the reason they WANT to run the government is to enrich themselves by cutting rules and regulations and getting contracts
Yes but only in the space they want contracts.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 15:34
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The contract work isn’t going anywhere longterm. Elon and Bezos make a ton of money on contracts. Part of the plan is probably to take the federal workforce down to a skeleton crew precisely so contractors like AWS and SpaceX can eat up even more of the spending.
This. Why are these zillionares so close to Trump now and some are looking to buy homes here? DC isn't necessarily a vacation spot for the ultra wealthy. They are here to get closer to the government's teet and divert as much of its flow into their direction.. This is absolutely guaranteed to happen and anyone who uses basic logic can see what's going on. The only question remains whether these new opportunities will be created in DC metro or will be entirely relocated to other areas. My guess is both will happen. They aren't going to trash DC, they will leverage whatever is here as it's also going to save money. People who are already trained, know their way around the systems, infrastructure and offices already existing and empty and waiting, transit system and affluence providing nice things high earning employees are going to appreciate.
No, they are here to run the government. It’s been a long time coming, they believe government is for profit and not for what it is meant to be, serves the public. It seems we’re moving towards no separation between, government, church and business.
I agree that’s why, but the reason they WANT to run the government is to enrich themselves by cutting rules and regulations and getting contracts
Anonymous
02/06/2025 15:12
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The contract work isn’t going anywhere longterm. Elon and Bezos make a ton of money on contracts. Part of the plan is probably to take the federal workforce down to a skeleton crew precisely so contractors like AWS and SpaceX can eat up even more of the spending.
This. Why are these zillionares so close to Trump now and some are looking to buy homes here? DC isn't necessarily a vacation spot for the ultra wealthy. They are here to get closer to the government's teet and divert as much of its flow into their direction.. This is absolutely guaranteed to happen and anyone who uses basic logic can see what's going on. The only question remains whether these new opportunities will be created in DC metro or will be entirely relocated to other areas. My guess is both will happen. They aren't going to trash DC, they will leverage whatever is here as it's also going to save money. People who are already trained, know their way around the systems, infrastructure and offices already existing and empty and waiting, transit system and affluence providing nice things high earning employees are going to appreciate.
No, they are here to run the government. It’s been a long time coming, they believe government is for profit and not for what it is meant to be, serves the public. It seems we’re moving towards no separation between, government, church and business.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 14:49
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The contract work isn’t going anywhere longterm. Elon and Bezos make a ton of money on contracts. Part of the plan is probably to take the federal workforce down to a skeleton crew precisely so contractors like AWS and SpaceX can eat up even more of the spending.
Yes in the defense space. Obviously this is not going away. Plenty of us work in other areas of the government and those are going away.
Yes in defense. But AWS still sells to USAID. That USAID contract is ending. DOE. DOL. NOAA. Pick your agency. That piece of contracting work is dropping.
Well Defense is an enormous share of the spending. USAID is a tiny fraction and mostly not in DC. And DOE, DOL etc will go on existing and contracting, probably in greater amounts ultimately given their decimated workforces
USAID is not the only contractor. We have lost contracts at IRS, Energy, Education, HHS, other independent agencies.
Initially contracts would be lost as it's expected, because they will have to be reviewed. This happens in the private industry contracting a lot. Consulting companies even those deeply embedded and working with their fortune 500 client lose contracts all the time especially during the reorgs. Often New contracting companies are brought in to replace older vendors or older vendors have to take a step back and "re-submit" the contracts to the new leadership. Often redo some of the initial scoping work, trying to sell business at a different angle consistent with the goal of the new leadership. It's what's going to eventually happen, but the first stage is going to be pure pain because it's about elimination. Restructuring will come later.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 14:31
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The contract work isn’t going anywhere longterm. Elon and Bezos make a ton of money on contracts. Part of the plan is probably to take the federal workforce down to a skeleton crew precisely so contractors like AWS and SpaceX can eat up even more of the spending.
This. Why are these zillionares so close to Trump now and some are looking to buy homes here? DC isn't necessarily a vacation spot for the ultra wealthy. They are here to get closer to the government's teet and divert as much of its flow into their direction.. This is absolutely guaranteed to happen and anyone who uses basic logic can see what's going on. The only question remains whether these new opportunities will be created in DC metro or will be entirely relocated to other areas. My guess is both will happen. They aren't going to trash DC, they will leverage whatever is here as it's also going to save money. People who are already trained, know their way around the systems, infrastructure and offices already existing and empty and waiting, transit system and affluence providing nice things high earning employees are going to appreciate.
I also don’t think Trump is going to be crazy about moving agencies out of DC. A big part of the reason those agencies are in DC in the first place is so they can work with the White House and each other more easily. Spreading them out across the country creates separation from Trump that could limit his control
Anonymous
02/06/2025 14:29
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The contract work isn’t going anywhere longterm. Elon and Bezos make a ton of money on contracts. Part of the plan is probably to take the federal workforce down to a skeleton crew precisely so contractors like AWS and SpaceX can eat up even more of the spending.
Yes in the defense space. Obviously this is not going away. Plenty of us work in other areas of the government and those are going away.
Yes in defense. But AWS still sells to USAID. That USAID contract is ending. DOE. DOL. NOAA. Pick your agency. That piece of contracting work is dropping.
Well Defense is an enormous share of the spending. USAID is a tiny fraction and mostly not in DC. And DOE, DOL etc will go on existing and contracting, probably in greater amounts ultimately given their decimated workforces
USAID is not the only contractor. We have lost contracts at IRS, Energy, Education, HHS, other independent agencies.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 14:23
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:The contract work isn’t going anywhere longterm. Elon and Bezos make a ton of money on contracts. Part of the plan is probably to take the federal workforce down to a skeleton crew precisely so contractors like AWS and SpaceX can eat up even more of the spending.
This. Why are these zillionares so close to Trump now and some are looking to buy homes here? DC isn't necessarily a vacation spot for the ultra wealthy. They are here to get closer to the government's teet and divert as much of its flow into their direction.. This is absolutely guaranteed to happen and anyone who uses basic logic can see what's going on. The only question remains whether these new opportunities will be created in DC metro or will be entirely relocated to other areas. My guess is both will happen. They aren't going to trash DC, they will leverage whatever is here as it's also going to save money. People who are already trained, know their way around the systems, infrastructure and offices already existing and empty and waiting, transit system and affluence providing nice things high earning employees are going to appreciate.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 14:21
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
One thing people underestimate is the effects on private sector companies outside DC. If you're a federal employee, think of all the software programs you use at work -- everything from virus scan programs (usually multiple of them because the threat environment is very complicated), to document management, to benefits. You probably don't notice the companies behind all of them, but most are publicly traded. Now, imagine Musk cuts back on all those software programs, or the agencies find a way to do it themselves due to less in appropriations.
Suddenly, the 10% YOY revenue increases those companies were reporting to their investors stop. Revenues are flat or dropping. That means their stock prices drop because built into those stock prices were an expectation that revenues would continue to go up. With dropping or stagnant revenues, and fewer government customers, those companies now need to do layoffs. And before you now it, we'll be in a recession with no easy way out.
It's going to get ugly, folks.
Suddenly, the 10% YOY revenue increases those companies were reporting to their investors stop. Revenues are flat or dropping. That means their stock prices drop because built into those stock prices were an expectation that revenues would continue to go up. With dropping or stagnant revenues, and fewer government customers, those companies now need to do layoffs. And before you now it, we'll be in a recession with no easy way out.
It's going to get ugly, folks.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 14:13
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It's not nearly as expensive everywhere else. Lots of mid-sized cities that are way more affordable, especially in places that people on this board would call flyover country. Those places are safe, have good schools, and don't have nightmare commutes if you have to live far from your job. Broaden your horizons -- there's more to the world than the DMV.
Flyover country is in fact expensive for the people having the median job in those areas. Those places don’t have much professional work, so not sure your audience.
The NYT did a whole piece about how Kalamazoo MI is now too expensive for people working the average job in that area.
Also, go search local press in places like SD and ND and the cost of housing is a big issue.
Your advice above I guess works for somebody that made a ton of $$$s in the DMV and now can semi-retire or something.
FWIW, I'm from Kalamazoo and that article didn't ring true for me. I'm sure that the couple profiled in the article were telling the truth, but it didn't ring globally true at all.
OK. It was fairly well-researched and had many statistics about median home prices, median incomes and the surge in home prices over the last 5 years.
It's kind of silly to say the article didn't ring true for you unless you are in fact in the R/E statistics industry and understand at a granular level what is happening in the Kalamazoo R/E market. Here are some quotes from the article:
Kalamazoo County’s home prices have risen around 40 percent since the pandemic, and rent prices even further.
For all its housing price inflation, Kalamazoo is still so much cheaper than other parts of the country that it was recently named one of America’s most affordable cities for professionals. A darker way of putting it is that Kalamazoo is the final stop in the housing crisis. And that’s the problem with being a place where people move to feel richer: Those who get priced out have no place left to go.
What has happened in Kalamazoo and elsewhere is that many of these older, cheaper units have either fallen into uninhabitable disrepair or been sold to investors who rehab them and raise the rents. Rehabs like that are necessary — even Ms. Tackett-Denney will tell you that her place was a dump — especially in Michigan, where close to half the housing stock was built before 1970. But because so little has been built since 2009, there is less “new” old housing to replace places that are naturally affordable, and the market pushes renters into much more expensive homes.
The McGowens’ house is in White Cloud, a rural city of 1,500 about an hour north of Grand Rapids, where the few local businesses include a funeral home and a fireworks depot. There are no Starbucks or condominium towers. The housing crisis is here all the same.
Kalamazoo is a very affordable place to live. The NYT focusing on the anecdote of this one family that seemed to have financial issues aside from finding a house was misleading.
The point the article and the poster are making is that it's very affordable to people coming from elsewhere. It is not affordable to people who live there.
Also no one on this board who spends hours discussing the best exact zip code in McLean is moving to Kalamazoo. It's all downstream as people move to places like Austin and Nashville and Boise and then folks there get priced out and move to smaller cities to feel wealthy. Everyone wants to feel like a king and eventually you run out of places to go downstream.
This, so well said! People from here want to move to the 2nd tier cities that are already pretty much in the same price range as DC metro if you compare premium area to premium area. When someone still touts how any of these cities are affordable they are looking at sprawl suburbia. They tend to compare premium areas of HCOL areas to the mid range areas of the other cities, and the fools rush in.
I used to look to buy in Dallas after giving up on Bay Area over 2 decades ago. I found areas I liked to be already rather expensive at that time. Nice homes were already in millions. Affordable homes that made sense were badly run down and in need of gut renovation and not even in the most convenient areas I liked. Or they were in Plano, Frisco, where they still had a lot of supply of quickly built up sprawl. But now these are also pricey with all the migration from HCOL states.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 14:07
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:The contract work isn’t going anywhere longterm. Elon and Bezos make a ton of money on contracts. Part of the plan is probably to take the federal workforce down to a skeleton crew precisely so contractors like AWS and SpaceX can eat up even more of the spending.
Yes in the defense space. Obviously this is not going away. Plenty of us work in other areas of the government and those are going away.
Yes in defense. But AWS still sells to USAID. That USAID contract is ending. DOE. DOL. NOAA. Pick your agency. That piece of contracting work is dropping.
Well Defense is an enormous share of the spending. USAID is a tiny fraction and mostly not in DC. And DOE, DOL etc will go on existing and contracting, probably in greater amounts ultimately given their decimated workforces
Anonymous
02/06/2025 13:29
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:what sort of financial sense would it make to "panic sell" the roof over your head that you likely have with a sub 5% mortgage rate? Even moving to a MCOL or LCOL location - with rates as high as they are - it makes no financial sense.
Correct. But if job market here becomes non existent relying only on whatever private sector companies are here and whatever is left of Fed functions they cannot possibly cut, then people who are chronically unemployed will be looking to move because they can't afford to live even if their housing is free. People who must work to live will be the first to flee if unable to find jobs for many months. RE market on the lower end would probably get more movement at first.
Those with already accumulated wealth can certainly stay forever, but they won't enjoy living in a place that's declining economically and looking depressed. They won't be selling as they likely have other homes, but they would not be inclined to stay here much and spend money in local economy. The latter is unlikely to happen because DC is still a nation's capital and it's doubtful this administration wants to project an image of despair and rundown everything around them when they invite foreign leaders in. It has to at least "appear" that MAGA is working, right?
Remember when Chinese leader was invited to visit SF and how quickly they cleaned up as if decades old skid rows had never existed?
Anonymous
02/06/2025 13:22
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:Even full time RTO is barely a big deal. You get tons of vacation days holidays. Not that many days at work.
My first job I worked 6 days a week, ten vacation day and ten holidays. That job was very very close to my house or would have been very hard to do.
If I had a 8-4 pm job M-F with 12 Holidays and 5 weeks vacation and sick days I could easily do a long commute.
My spouse is with a private company. So, early morning and late night meetings. It was ok when they could flex but they take a call or two before leaving at 7, calls during the commute, don’t leave till 5-6-7 and them more calls when they get home. It’s not sustainable. Our house is paid off, we have kids who we don’t want to disrupt their lives, etc. it ducks as they were wfh long before Covid.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 13:17
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:We will see. I guess it depends ultimately on how many people get laid off. 10k won’t make a difference. 100k would be huge.
If all these people live here and find themselves suddenly unemployed, yes. It's not about whether they can afford their homes either, you can have a paid off house, but you still need income to pay RE taxes, utilities, maintenance, food, health insurance, other basics just to survive. It's thousands of dollars a month. You can only survive if you have some passive income source from investments, pensions, payouts or whatever or a spouse whose jobs won't be affected. If you rely on earned income you will be toast when you run out of your savings if job market doesn't stabilize and new jobs aren't created to at least partially replace massive job losses. We are trying to guess the unknown and unpredictable. Anything can happen, it could go either way TBH. DC metro could become a dump or will experience even more rapid growth if there some is injection of private capital and replacement of fed jobs.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 13:09
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Anonymous wrote:The people most at risk are those who bought in the last 2-3 years, have high interest rates and not much equity. Even a 5% downturn in home prices could be enough to make selling difficult with the transaction costs. Equally at risk are people who don't have much savings and can't weather the storm for 3-6 months while the chaos ensues.
We lived through 2008 and have over-saved our cash to never be that close to the edge again. If we both lost our jobs we'd be able to maintain our lifestyle for at least a year, probably two, without significant hits to COL (health insurance being the big wild card here). We are fortunate but I worry about all the people who don't have the same cushion.
And to add to this - even if they elect to rent their house out, it'll be hard to match their monthly payment. Owning is so much more expensive than renting. They'll be competing with rentals bought back in 2018 (if not earlier) which can be thousands cheaper.
Anonymous
02/06/2025 13:08
Subject: Is there going to be panic selling?
Even full time RTO is barely a big deal. You get tons of vacation days holidays. Not that many days at work.
My first job I worked 6 days a week, ten vacation day and ten holidays. That job was very very close to my house or would have been very hard to do.
If I had a 8-4 pm job M-F with 12 Holidays and 5 weeks vacation and sick days I could easily do a long commute.
My first job I worked 6 days a week, ten vacation day and ten holidays. That job was very very close to my house or would have been very hard to do.
If I had a 8-4 pm job M-F with 12 Holidays and 5 weeks vacation and sick days I could easily do a long commute.