A democrat just told me Harris is going to win Florida and Iowa. Not sure where this surge is coming from but I don’t buy it.

Trump is a terrible candidate. Truly just the worst pick. I’m not saying Harris will definitely win Iowa or nationally. But someone like Haley would be running away with it.

Bad move, GOP.

Anonymous wrote:Isn't John Deere moving out of Iowa for Mexico?

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2024/08/09/john-deere-layoffs-moving-jobs-to-mexico/

Thanks, Kamala/Biden for working to keep jobs in the US.

I'm not sure I believe this poll.

That all started with Trump's tariffs which jacked up their costs. Harley Davidson and others began moving some of their production offshore as well - on Trump's watch, because of Trump policies. Biden-Harris has been fighting to bring it back.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I have a lot of connections to Iowa and a great fondness for that state. The people there are a lot smarter and more thoughtful than many coastal types sometimes seem to think.

I want to believe. 🤞

Lots of Americans are smart and thoughtful. Trump is a turnoff to conservatives. A point that MAGA doesn’t understand. Some will hold their noses, but who wants to be associated with the Trump dumpster fire at this point?

In case it’s not clear I am hoping this poll is correct. I would love Harris to win Iowa. (I realize I used the words “coastal elites”which is a term that many Rs use — but it feels accurate because many coastal folks are, in fact, elite and also can be very disparaging toward the so-called “flyover” states.)

The Iowans I have known are wonderful. It has pained me to see MAGA make such headway there. The world will make more sense to me if Iowa finally defeats Trumpism.

Anonymous wrote:Isn't John Deere moving out of Iowa for Mexico?

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2024/08/09/john-deere-layoffs-moving-jobs-to-mexico/

Thanks, Kamala/Biden for working to keep jobs in the US.

I'm not sure I believe this poll.

Desperation setting in here. We all remember how many manufacturing jobs disappeared under Trump.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Twist, twist, pretzel, pretzel.

Isn't John Deere moving out of Iowa for Mexico?

https://www.hoosieragtoday.com/2024/08/09/john-deere-layoffs-moving-jobs-to-mexico/

Thanks, Kamala/Biden for working to keep jobs in the US.

I'm not sure I believe this poll.

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think she’s going to win Iowa but the people automatically discounting this don’t know anything about polls. Selzer is worshipped by the people who do. Keep in mind - go back a few pages - this makes sense when Trump is only up in Kansas by 5, Harris is up by 12 in the 2nd congressional district and down by only 4 in the 1st, and a Miami University poll of Ohio has him up there by only 3.

+1. Sitting here in Kansas absolutely surrounded by Harris signs (and, no, not in Lawrence). People are tired of his schtick and women here are appalled, including many of the 40-something traditional R voters I know. She probably will not win the state and may not win Iowa either, but these trends suggest potential blowouts elsewhere. I do not want to get my hopes up but at the same time, can’t deny the momentum. Fingers crossed!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

Since we know MAGA always projects what it is doing on others, that must explain all the strong Trump polling. One of the techbros paying out big money to put out those polls?

It’s already been reported that Polymarket is being manipulated by a few big players.

Anonymous wrote:I have a lot of connections to Iowa and a great fondness for that state. The people there are a lot smarter and more thoughtful than many coastal types sometimes seem to think.

I want to believe. 🤞

Lots of Americans are smart and thoughtful. Trump is a turnoff to conservatives. A point that MAGA doesn’t understand. Some will hold their noses, but who wants to be associated with the Trump dumpster fire at this point?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

Since we know MAGA always projects what it is doing on others, that must explain all the strong Trump polling. One of the techbros paying out big money to put out those polls?

Wouldn’t surprise me one iota

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think she’s going to win Iowa but the people automatically discounting this don’t know anything about polls. Selzer is worshipped by the people who do. Keep in mind - go back a few pages - this makes sense when Trump is only up in Kansas by 5, Harris is up by 12 in the 2nd congressional district and down by only 4 in the 1st, and a Miami University poll of Ohio has him up there by only 3.

+1 wouldn’t be surprised at all if he only won Iowa by 2-3 instead of the higher margins he got in 2016 and 2020.

Which would still point to Harris over performing nationwide… and a clean win for her.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is happening people! Thank goodness.

Trump beat Biden in Iowa by 8 pts in 2020. Harris has overtaken him.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Wow. If this comes to pass, Harris will have a Reaganesque victory.

Reagan won 46 states and 489 EVs in 1980.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Lol if you believe this. Have you been to Iowa? I grew up there. The Democrats are dead to those people. I have family members that were Democrats for years, but are now loyal Trump supporters. No chance those people are backing Kamala Harris.

Did you see the post above yours? Ann Seltzer polls are usually very accurate.

Ok. Everyone is wrong sometimes, and here, direct experience strongly indicates this poll is very wrong. It is also an outlier among polls. For all I know, Ann Seltzer got a huge payday to sacrifice some credibility to put out good numbers for Harris. In any event, I do not believe it is accurate. This is based on the experience of having grown up there and having watched people abandon the Democrats first hand.

A Democrat got 47.5% of the vote for Iowa governor in 2018.

That’s a lot different than a national democrat. And kamala harris is a bottom of the barrel national democrat at that. No chance there has been a huge swing in her favor.

Copium

Like i said, you’re free to think whatever you want. Experience tells me you are wrong and Seltzer is wrong.

Except Seltzer has been spot on for the last 12+ years, even as she’s contrasted other polls. I tend to lean on her reliability as a good indicator of where things are vs. your gut.

That’s your choice. I believe she is wrong. I would not even be surprised to learn she got paid big money to put out a poll like this. I fully expect these types of organizations to throw out some last minute polls purporting to show that Kamala Harris is riding high as a last ditch effort to try to push her across the line. It is all BS by a very partisan set at this point.

Since we know MAGA always projects what it is doing on others, that must explain all the strong Trump polling. One of the techbros paying out big money to put out those polls?

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think she’s going to win Iowa but the people automatically discounting this don’t know anything about polls. Selzer is worshipped by the people who do. Keep in mind - go back a few pages - this makes sense when Trump is only up in Kansas by 5, Harris is up by 12 in the 2nd congressional district and down by only 4 in the 1st, and a Miami University poll of Ohio has him up there by only 3.

+1 wouldn’t be surprised at all if he only won Iowa by 2-3 instead of the higher margins he got in 2016 and 2020.