We know what explains the TJ drop. What explains the FCPS drop?

To recap, it appears the number of FCPS NMSF went down from 264 to 191 (about 28% decline), the number from TJ went down by 84 (slightly over 50% decline), and the number from other high schools went up 11 (about 10% increase).

It's very hard to see this as anything other than a testament to how the FCPS School Board has prioritized a geographical spoils system at TJ over academic merit (both at TJ and county-wide).

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They also had a very low cutoff score last year.

Yes, the VA selection index went up by 3 pts. It was oddly low last year.

What's VA index this year?

The cutoff for Class of 2025 NMSF in VA is 222 this year, up 3 point from last year. Same as Maryland and higher than most states, except for Massachusetts and NJ (and DC).

Commended is 208, regardless of state.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ok. But no one implemented the admissions changes so that psat scores would remain super high. They were implemented knowing they would drop. So the dropping is not a surprise. It’s anticipated. More interested in seeing college admissions info for this group than their psat scores. We have to wait for that.

College admissions is not a measure of merit. I can totally see better results due to more diversity. But, should TJ play the admission games?

I really, really don't think that better admissions was what the school board/Gatehouse was going for when they changed TJ admissions. They were going - by their own words - for a student body more reflective of the racial makeup of our area. Whether you agree with that or disagree with that, it's what they said.

Anonymous wrote:Ok. But no one implemented the admissions changes so that psat scores would remain super high. They were implemented knowing they would drop. So the dropping is not a surprise. It’s anticipated. More interested in seeing college admissions info for this group than their psat scores. We have to wait for that.

College admissions is not a measure of merit. I can totally see better results due to more diversity. But, should TJ play the admission games?

Ok. But no one implemented the admissions changes so that psat scores would remain super high. They were implemented knowing they would drop. So the dropping is not a surprise. It’s anticipated. More interested in seeing college admissions info for this group than their psat scores. We have to wait for that.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That is a shockingly low number for TJ! When my kid were there, it was usually about 150 each year.

To be honest, nothing shocking about it when admission is no longer solely based on merit

You mean, no longer based on standardized test scores. If you stop admitting based on standardized test scores, you should expect to see a significant drop in standardized test scores, right? If the psat is your measure of success, then the admissions change is a bad idea. But are sky high psat scores the goal here?

Standardized test scores are the single best measures of cognitive ability that can reasonably be measured in a general educational setting.
There is no debate among psychologists about that.
The value of cognitive ability in academic achievement is also not controversial at all.

The overwhelming majority of countries use a single test or a series of tests to determine who goes to which colleges.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That is a shockingly low number for TJ! When my kid were there, it was usually about 150 each year.

To be honest, nothing shocking about it when admission is no longer solely based on merit

You mean, no longer based on standardized test scores. If you stop admitting based on standardized test scores, you should expect to see a significant drop in standardized test scores, right? If the psat is your measure of success, then the admissions change is a bad idea. But are sky high psat scores the goal here?

Given that standardized test scores have always been shown to be a good predictor of student success in college, why wouldn't they be a good predictor of student success in what was touted to me in 1998 as "college for 14 year olds" by my homeroom teacher at TJ?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:That is a shockingly low number for TJ! When my kid were there, it was usually about 150 each year.

To be honest, nothing shocking about it when admission is no longer solely based on merit

You mean, no longer based on standardized test scores. If you stop admitting based on standardized test scores, you should expect to see a significant drop in standardized test scores, right? If the psat is your measure of success, then the admissions change is a bad idea. But are sky high psat scores the goal here?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I see it as a TJ fail. The other schools in fcps didn't see their number decreased, only Tj and by half.

But the schools in stronger areas *should* have had a much larger number of kids capable of making NMSF, since the switch in TJ admissions w/ its geographic quotas. If the base school numbers didn't go up by a lot, it does suggest a county-wide problem.

Maybe? but there is also a chance that those kids who might have been accepted with the old system and are now at base school would have performed better on PSAT had they had the opportunity to attend TJ.

So the total number of NMSF went down in Virginia compared to other states? That would make sense.

No, the number of NMSF stay the same in VA. Each state is allotted a certain number and that didn't change. It just means that now TJ no longer has 150+ top scorers in the state but only 80. Some other students from other schools throughout VA score better than TJ students. So in terms of NMSF, TJ class of 2025 is weaker than all the previous TJ classes.

I assume if FCPS as a whole went down then other counties in Virginia went up.

Honestly given the articles from a few years ago about people fleeing the close-in suburbs to go to more rural counties because they could work from home, this might make sense. It also does seem like other systems in VA are beefing up their educational quality. Friends who moved to the Newport News area indicate more rigor than here.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I see it as a TJ fail. The other schools in fcps didn't see their number decreased, only Tj and by half.

But the schools in stronger areas *should* have had a much larger number of kids capable of making NMSF, since the switch in TJ admissions w/ its geographic quotas. If the base school numbers didn't go up by a lot, it does suggest a county-wide problem.

Maybe? but there is also a chance that those kids who might have been accepted with the old system and are now at base school would have performed better on PSAT had they had the opportunity to attend TJ.

So the total number of NMSF went down in Virginia compared to other states? That would make sense.

No, the number of NMSF stay the same in VA. Each state is allotted a certain number and that didn't change. It just means that now TJ no longer has 150+ top scorers in the state but only 80. Some other students from other schools throughout VA score better than TJ students. So in terms of NMSF, TJ class of 2025 is weaker than all the previous TJ classes.

Maybe the number of commended will go up in TJ and Virginia. When do they come out?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I see it as a TJ fail. The other schools in fcps didn't see their number decreased, only Tj and by half.

But the schools in stronger areas *should* have had a much larger number of kids capable of making NMSF, since the switch in TJ admissions w/ its geographic quotas. If the base school numbers didn't go up by a lot, it does suggest a county-wide problem.

Maybe? but there is also a chance that those kids who might have been accepted with the old system and are now at base school would have performed better on PSAT had they had the opportunity to attend TJ.

So the total number of NMSF went down in Virginia compared to other states? That would make sense.

^ asking rhe above since I thought n msg was about the PSATs you take your junior year so there is a year lag in what gets announced.

I’m confused. Are the stats here from last year for the class of 2024 and wasn’t that the last class to graduate under the old system?

The first class in the new system I thought is class of 2025 and don’t there NMPF stats come out this month?