Anonymous wrote:Everything in the Rust Belt is fading. Kids don’t want to be in a freezing cold dying region outside of perhaps Catholics at Notre Dame. You can’t pull the wool over their eyes, they pull up YouTube instagram and TikTok and see how cold grey and dreary those regions are most of the school year.

Except U of Michigan is still extremely popular.

Anonymous wrote:State flagships will be popular. Particularly the Honors programs.

A lot of Ivies will decline in popularity. Particularly Harvard and Yale. They'll be regarded as rich kid and DEI schools, and not taken seriously for undergrad.

Schools going up will be the other major privates - Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice, Northwestern. And some publics like Michigan, Berkeley, and UCLA. MIT will continue to be regarded as the best school in America. Stanford will do fine.

Among SLACS, no real change. Amherst, Williams, and Bowdoin

There will be more interest in the academies. West Point and Annapolis will be roughly equal. Then Air Force.

Not a lot of change. Except in the Ivy League. Harvard, Yale, Penn, Brown, and Columbia are declining institutions. Princeton and Cornell will do fine

Because?

Anonymous wrote:I think we will witness the fall of the ivy league and I say that as an ivy grad.

I am one , too, and I wonder the same. If it's basically the same crap shoot to get into Harvard versus Vanderbilt...

Univ. of Florida's prestige will only grow. Massive state. The dream school of many Florida high school graduates. It'll take time, but the prestige will enhance. UMiami should rise by being the Latin American destination of internationals.

I think that the forecasted demise of Ivies and other selective privates is overblown.

The middle tier and below have more to fear.

Looking at it from a geographic sense, Johns Hopkins and Georgetown is THE game in the DC area for selective privates. New York has NYU. Boston, being Boston, has several privates that are targets for very smart, very wealthy international applicants.

Schools will continue to get flooded with applications, so even though student quality at the best schools isn't really changing, they'll continue to see their acceptance rates drop to crazy levels.

Some schools will cave to pressure and get rid of legacy admissions and ED.

Anonymous wrote:State flagships will be popular. Particularly the Honors programs.

A lot of Ivies will decline in popularity. Particularly Harvard and Yale. They'll be regarded as rich kid and DEI schools, and not taken seriously for undergrad.

Schools going up will be the other major privates - Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice, Northwestern. And some publics like Michigan, Berkeley, and UCLA. MIT will continue to be regarded as the best school in America. Stanford will do fine.

Among SLACS, no real change. Amherst, Williams, and Bowdoin

There will be more interest in the academies. West Point and Annapolis will be roughly equal. Then Air Force.

Not a lot of change. Except in the Ivy League. Harvard, Yale, Penn, Brown, and Columbia are declining institutions. Princeton and Cornell will do fine

Among SLACs, there has been a shift that I think will continue away from the NESCAC schools, which have location challenges and have been slower on the eng and CS front. I'd expect Swarthmore to be ranked first again by USNWR in the next 5-10 years and wouldn't be shocked if Pomona took a turn at the top as well. The best women's colleges have been positioning themselves well too (Wellesley and Smith in particular with endowment growth and investment in STEM).

Elite schools will continue to care deeply about athletics at the D1 and D3 levels and will double down on recruiting athletes from a wider set of backgrounds. D3 football and basketball have become more racially diverse (less white) and other sports will likely follow.

Schools that are good but not as set for how USNWR now rank will likely be hurt a bit. Chicago is probably more a 10-15 school now (and historically) with 20 more likely than top 4 or 5. WashU is another example. Cornell won't be on the receiving end of "worst" Ivy jokes either as more publications regularly rank them ahead of the schools they row.

Stanford's combination of CS / STEM leadership and $$ (their total assets, not just endowment, even surpass Harvard's now) will make it the biggest name of the next 25 years.

Anonymous wrote:State flagships are the next “thing”. Families will increasingly balk at spending outrageous sums for Larla to vape and whine about micro aggressions at obscure private schools.

Employers will increasingly balk at dealing with obnoxious super-woke hires from ivies. Without leading to a lucrative employment pipeline, their desirability will slowly ebb.

I agree with this.

Anonymous wrote:I predict more Jesuit schools won't break the top 20 but will move into the space BC held 15 years ago.

Schools like Marquette, Gonzaga, U of San Diego, Loyola Chicago, Regis U, Loyola Marymount, Seattle U

for UMC families with A- kids these colleges provide a solid education while side stepping the culture wars. They're right-sized schools in urban (ish) locations with friendly kids, fun sports, dependable career placement all at a reasonable COA w merit.

Loyola Marymount is for sure on the rise! Pretty crazy. It was such an average school, and now it’s gotten fairly competitive. Lots of celebrity kids end up there too.

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Anonymous wrote:- The top 20 national universities will be seen as peers. HPY will lose some prestige, while schools like Chicago, Duke, and Vanderbilt will become their peers.

- The best SLACs (not including the military academies) will grow in stature and size as more kids want a quality education - not just a name - and STEM requires more economic scale.

- The best state universities will also become more coveted, grow, and accept more OOS students. 50% OOS will become the norm for these schools.

Sadly, I disagree with this. More kids will want ROI rather than a quality education.

The top SLACs are getting more international apps and I expect that trend will continue. USNWR has an outsized influence, especially in a few countries with massive populations, and their separate ranking makes those top SLACs attractive, especially those in or near cities like Wellesley, Swarthmore, and Pomona.

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Anonymous wrote:Rutgers is like a cross between UMD and UVA. Top in-state students want UVA. Maryland, especially with CS, retains many of the best Maryland students. Rutgers isn't seen as a state school which keeps home the best and brightest.
Maybe because of all the other choices available in the northeast-SLACS, Jesuits, private R1 schools. Or it's the wacky take a bus to class campus feel.
UVA and UNC are already insanely competitive to get into. I shudder to think what it will look like in 10 years.

Rutgers is ranked In the 40s and will rise going forward.
Out of 4,000+ colleges, not bad!

Rutgers- New Brunswick's acceptance rate is 67%. Its yield is pretty low, so for right now, many, many students use it as a safety.

Contrast with UVA, UNC, UofF, Michigan, etc.

But time will tell if based on the factors above, things change.

Rutgers wasn't being compared to already elite public flagships ( you can scratch Florida...don't know how that got snuck in there with UNC, UVA and Michigan). However, within 10 years, state flagships will rise in popularity , and Rutgers stands to remain well within the top 40 or so.

DP. You know Florida is ranked #28 in National Universities, and #6 in publics, right?
https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/university-of-florida-1535/overall-rankings

Solid school, but way behind Berkeley, UCLA, Michigan, UNC, UVA in prestige.

Certainly at the U of Texas Austin and top southern flagships level.

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Anonymous wrote:Rutgers is like a cross between UMD and UVA. Top in-state students want UVA. Maryland, especially with CS, retains many of the best Maryland students. Rutgers isn't seen as a state school which keeps home the best and brightest.
Maybe because of all the other choices available in the northeast-SLACS, Jesuits, private R1 schools. Or it's the wacky take a bus to class campus feel.
UVA and UNC are already insanely competitive to get into. I shudder to think what it will look like in 10 years.

Rutgers is ranked In the 40s and will rise going forward.
Out of 4,000+ colleges, not bad!

Rutgers- New Brunswick's acceptance rate is 67%. Its yield is pretty low, so for right now, many, many students use it as a safety.

Contrast with UVA, UNC, UofF, Michigan, etc.

But time will tell if based on the factors above, things change.

Rutgers wasn't being compared to already elite public flagships ( you can scratch Florida...don't know how that got snuck in there with UNC, UVA and Michigan). However, within 10 years, state flagships will rise in popularity , and Rutgers stands to remain well within the top 40 or so.

DP. You know Florida is ranked #28 in National Universities, and #6 in publics, right?
https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/university-of-florida-1535/overall-rankings

Anonymous wrote:State flagships are the next “thing”. Families will increasingly balk at spending outrageous sums for Larla to vape and whine about micro aggressions at obscure private schools.

Employers will increasingly balk at dealing with obnoxious super-woke hires from ivies. Without leading to a lucrative employment pipeline, their desirability will slowly ebb.

THIS ^^. Nailed it. And not just flagships - lots of publics will be in demand.

State flagships will be popular. Particularly the Honors programs.

A lot of Ivies will decline in popularity. Particularly Harvard and Yale. They'll be regarded as rich kid and DEI schools, and not taken seriously for undergrad.

Schools going up will be the other major privates - Duke, Vanderbilt, Rice, Northwestern. And some publics like Michigan, Berkeley, and UCLA. MIT will continue to be regarded as the best school in America. Stanford will do fine.

Among SLACS, no real change. Amherst, Williams, and Bowdoin

There will be more interest in the academies. West Point and Annapolis will be roughly equal. Then Air Force.

Not a lot of change. Except in the Ivy League. Harvard, Yale, Penn, Brown, and Columbia are declining institutions. Princeton and Cornell will do fine

Anonymous wrote:I think we will witness the fall of the ivy league and I say that as an ivy grad.

Agree. Yale grad.

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Anonymous wrote:Agree that state flagships will continue to become popular.

I see nobody has mentioned the "demographic cliff" that begins in 2 years. It will be interesting to see how a shrinking population in U.S. and abroad will impact university program and pricing decisions. I wonder if flagships will need to expand their "consortiums" with other states for in-state tuition as their populations decline?

Also not mentioned is the growing trend for U.S. kids to go to the U.K. or other countries for favorable tuition rates. As more of these countries wise up and expand their English speaking offerings, U.S. colleges will need to factor in yet another competitor when trying to hit the merit aid sweet spot. $40k to $50k COA won't cut it when Europe can be half the price even with travel. And Canadian universities although they have an international premium fee are attractive when there is 25% xr rate discount.

IMO, it won't be a hard fall. The "cliff" will be more likely a gentle rolling hill.

True but schools outside of the top 25 or so will still have to make up the widening shortfall of applicants while covering large costs.

Almost agree if you said top 50-60 with an exception or two and top SLACs and top flagships.