Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m confused. 2006 was a birth boomlet year. Birth rates took a dive in 2008–Great Recession. So how is class of ‘25 (kids born in 2006 and 2007) going to be lowest in years?

Can I draw you a picture of a cliff?

2025 is the top of the cliff, down from there.

"Cliff" is a total misnomer. 2025 is when the numbers start going down gradually, just as they've been going up gradually since around 1990. Here's the National Center for Education Statistics' data:

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d17/tables/dt17_219.10.asp

The bigger factor will be if people continue to believe it's worth the cost.

I found another interesting article on this subject.

So if you graph demographic projections, the precipitous descent resembles a cliff beginning in 2025. Over the succeeding four years, the number of 18-year-olds will decrease by 15%.

How does that translate into enrollment figures? During that four-year span, colleges will lose approximately 576,000 students. Unfortunately for higher education, this situation isn't an aberration. College enrollments have been declining steadily since 2012. During COVID-19's apex — from 2019 to 2022 — undergraduate enrollment dropped by 7%.

Colleges in the Northeast and Midwest, regions that for years have been experiencing population declines due to migration patterns, will be hit hardest. Grawe's projections suggest both regions will see their college-going populations drop by more than 15% through 2029. That's sobering news for small, tuition-dependent private colleges in those states already teetering on shaky financial footing.

https://www.bestcolleges.com/news/analysis/looming-enrollment-cliff-poses-serious-threat-to-colleges/

Anonymous wrote:That a few tiny privates amongst 5,000 have chosen to close after covid or are consolidating (many on the list are doing that) is hardly the "more and more" you say to start this thread. A number of privates were already financially strained or had closed - like Sweet Briar - before Covid. Covid hit my college hard too, but it's pulling through. I've heard of one or two colleges on this list and they are consolidating. I think it should have closed or consolidated a long time ago.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in academia. It's alarmist. 91 have closed or merged since 2016. That's 13/year. Let's say about half merged, so it's 5-6 that close per year. They are schools you've never heard of, like Presentation College in South Dakota, Cazenovia College in New York, and Holy Names University in California (449 students).

Then there's Judson College that closed in 2021.. because the had only 12 students enroll that year (it's a Baptist women's college).

We're seeing 5-10 colleges close per year, and we have over 1,000 R-1 and R-2 universities, and if you add in community colleges you're at about 5,000.

Compared to 20 years ago, we see a lot more international students, especially from China. The demand remains.

You claim to be in academia, and yet you say there are over "1,000 R-1 and R-2 universities" in the US? Complete BS. R 1 colleges are 146. R 2 colleges are 133. You must be a graduate of Judson College to drop a lie like this.

Ok I was winging it and more pointing out there's 1,000+ big universities out there, but even looking at the research universtities, you need to add on the other campuses of a lot on those list, and you get close to 1,000. For example, UWisconsin has Madison and Milwaukee campuses but not Stevens Point or Whitewater.. but those are decent schools and will draw applicants just as well due to the UW name. A bunch of SUNY and CUNY campuses left off. Many Texas State campuses. In MD, no Frostburg nor Townson listed.

OK. Just trying to understand your post. Winging it from someone that claims to be in {academia}?

You say you are from "academia" and you say it's "alarmist". You say you were "winging it" when you professed there are over 1,000 R-1 R-2 universities in the US? Yet there are less than 300 R-1 and R-2 universities in the US.

Good lord, can you call yourself a teacher if you lie about basic facts? What exactly do you teach your kids in school? Are you a public, private teacher?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in academia. It's alarmist. 91 have closed or merged since 2016. That's 13/year. Let's say about half merged, so it's 5-6 that close per year. They are schools you've never heard of, like Presentation College in South Dakota, Cazenovia College in New York, and Holy Names University in California (449 students).

Then there's Judson College that closed in 2021.. because the had only 12 students enroll that year (it's a Baptist women's college).

We're seeing 5-10 colleges close per year, and we have over 1,000 R-1 and R-2 universities, and if you add in community colleges you're at about 5,000.

Compared to 20 years ago, we see a lot more international students, especially from China. The demand remains.

You claim to be in academia, and yet you say there are over "1,000 R-1 and R-2 universities" in the US? Complete BS. R 1 colleges are 146. R 2 colleges are 133. You must be a graduate of Judson College to drop a lie like this.

Ok I was winging it and more pointing out there's 1,000+ big universities out there, but even looking at the research universtities, you need to add on the other campuses of a lot on those list, and you get close to 1,000. For example, UWisconsin has Madison and Milwaukee campuses but not Stevens Point or Whitewater.. but those are decent schools and will draw applicants just as well due to the UW name. A bunch of SUNY and CUNY campuses left off. Many Texas State campuses. In MD, no Frostburg nor Townson listed.

Anonymous wrote:
Have had house rentals at a large university for years. The student tenants have been getting less resilient and less independent every year since 2005. Before that they found their own rentals and signed leases by themselves. They would repair many of their own property damage. They went on road trips, built stages for their parties.. that type of stuff. Real coming of age fun and independence. Parents are all over every decision and they are glued to their phones now. They are 5-10 years behind in maturity than before and although there are exceptions they have lower level senses of humor, imagination and very low resilience. I don’t see much advantage in not just staying home and learning on line. Parents are hovering so much that in general the kids aren’t picking up life skills and the parents are just wasting their money.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in academia. It's alarmist. 91 have closed or merged since 2016. That's 13/year. Let's say about half merged, so it's 5-6 that close per year. They are schools you've never heard of, like Presentation College in South Dakota, Cazenovia College in New York, and Holy Names University in California (449 students).

Then there's Judson College that closed in 2021.. because the had only 12 students enroll that year (it's a Baptist women's college).

We're seeing 5-10 colleges close per year, and we have over 1,000 R-1 and R-2 universities, and if you add in community colleges you're at about 5,000.

Compared to 20 years ago, we see a lot more international students, especially from China. The demand remains.

I don't think international students are interested in mediocre schools.

They come here for semi-prestigious to prestigious schools.

There's no demand for mediocre schools.

There is absolutely demand for mediocre schools -- from mediocre international students. They're not all getting into the top 25, and there are plenty of middle class Chinese willing to pay for their kid to go to any school in the US as that's considered prestigious enough.

There are 3000+ 4 year schools in the US. When I said mediocre, say #200+ on USN&WR.
International student's are not interested in small schools and bad locations
Shit ton of schools are not in demand by international students and won't be saved by them.

For example, #212 Bethel University has 58 international students.
#212 is not even bad out of 3000+

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m confused. 2006 was a birth boomlet year. Birth rates took a dive in 2008–Great Recession. So how is class of ‘25 (kids born in 2006 and 2007) going to be lowest in years?

Can I draw you a picture of a cliff?

2025 is the top of the cliff, down from there.

"Cliff" is a total misnomer. 2025 is when the numbers start going down gradually, just as they've been going up gradually since around 1990. Here's the National Center for Education Statistics' data:

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d17/tables/dt17_219.10.asp

The bigger factor will be if people continue to believe it's worth the cost.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in academia. It's alarmist. 91 have closed or merged since 2016. That's 13/year. Let's say about half merged, so it's 5-6 that close per year. They are schools you've never heard of, like Presentation College in South Dakota, Cazenovia College in New York, and Holy Names University in California (449 students).

Then there's Judson College that closed in 2021.. because the had only 12 students enroll that year (it's a Baptist women's college).

We're seeing 5-10 colleges close per year, and we have over 1,000 R-1 and R-2 universities, and if you add in community colleges you're at about 5,000.

Compared to 20 years ago, we see a lot more international students, especially from China. The demand remains.

I don't think international students are interested in mediocre schools.

They come here for semi-prestigious to prestigious schools.

There's no demand for mediocre schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in academia. It's alarmist. 91 have closed or merged since 2016. That's 13/year. Let's say about half merged, so it's 5-6 that close per year. They are schools you've never heard of, like Presentation College in South Dakota, Cazenovia College in New York, and Holy Names University in California (449 students).

Then there's Judson College that closed in 2021.. because the had only 12 students enroll that year (it's a Baptist women's college).

We're seeing 5-10 colleges close per year, and we have over 1,000 R-1 and R-2 universities, and if you add in community colleges you're at about 5,000.

Compared to 20 years ago, we see a lot more international students, especially from China. The demand remains.

I don't think international students are interested in mediocre schools.

They come here for semi-prestigious to prestigious schools.

There's no demand for mediocre schools.

There is absolutely demand for mediocre schools -- from mediocre international students. They're not all getting into the top 25, and there are plenty of middle class Chinese willing to pay for their kid to go to any school in the US as that's considered prestigious enough.

There are 3000+ 4 year schools in the US. When I said mediocre, say #200+ on USN&WR.
International student's are not interested in small schools and bad locations
Shit ton of schools are not in demand by international students and won't be saved by them.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm in academia. It's alarmist. 91 have closed or merged since 2016. That's 13/year. Let's say about half merged, so it's 5-6 that close per year. They are schools you've never heard of, like Presentation College in South Dakota, Cazenovia College in New York, and Holy Names University in California (449 students).

Then there's Judson College that closed in 2021.. because the had only 12 students enroll that year (it's a Baptist women's college).

We're seeing 5-10 colleges close per year, and we have over 1,000 R-1 and R-2 universities, and if you add in community colleges you're at about 5,000.

Compared to 20 years ago, we see a lot more international students, especially from China. The demand remains.

I don't think international students are interested in mediocre schools.

They come here for semi-prestigious to prestigious schools.

There's no demand for mediocre schools.

There is absolutely demand for mediocre schools -- from mediocre international students. They're not all getting into the top 25, and there are plenty of middle class Chinese willing to pay for their kid to go to any school in the US as that's considered prestigious enough.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:A lot of them appear to be slacs, and STEM degrees are a lot more popular then ever before.

SLACs also offer STEM degrees.

"Liberal arts education (from Latin liberalis "free" and ars "art or principled practice"), also known as the liberal arts and pure sciences, is the traditional academic course of study in Western higher education." --Wikipedia

The top places to study STEM do not include SLACs

Cal Tech is a SLAC.

Anonymous wrote:I was just talking about this with a professor at WVU. She said enrollment is significantly down and the administration is running scared. All sorts of cost-saving initiatives have been implemented. She is a bit bemused by admin’s reaction, as she said the demographic cliff has long been anticipated and they’ve had ample time to plan for it.