Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Putin will launch a Nuke into Germany.

He launches a nuke, and Moscow, Petrograd, and wherever he's trying to hide, cease to be.

But I don't think he will. Nuclear deterrence has always been a bogeyman at the fore of Russian military psyche. As much as they think they can rattle the sabers, they know it would be the end for them if they ever actually pushed the button.

Learn that in our policy class did we, little buttercup? Pfft.

Communist officials let children march in the Chernobyl May day parade in swirling radioactive dust. To this day Belarus has a massive cancer / deformity rate. Former Soviet Union military tactics included the possibility of charging through a tactical nuke strike. And I wouldn't forget Simonyan's little song at the "fore of Russian military psyche".

https://www.thedailybeast.com/rts-margarita-simonyan-belts-out-song-on-russian-state-tv-in-awkward-push-for-more-troops-in-ukraine

After noting that the situation is very difficult, Simonyan decided to sing verses from an old Soviet song, “The March of the Red Cavalry.” [* see note below] Other panelists awkwardly looked down, as she sang and then reiterated the lyrics about moving forward and never backing down. Simonyan went on: “If we back down, what awaits us—and I don’t mean it as hyperbole or metaphorically speaking—is everything that is described in [Adolf] Hitler’s table conversations, written down by his aides and secretaries. With a lot of gusto, he described in great detail how he saw our place on earth. It was a plan to turn us into yahoos—from “Gulliver's Travels”—abominable creatures, resembling human beings. They look just like us, but in reality they’re nothing like us. They can’t read or write, they can barely talk—that was written in Hitler’s table conversations. He even wanted us to lose our language, communicating with the use of signs and gestures.”

Simonyan recounted Hitlers plans to turn Russians into a mass of people, denied basic rights, from vaccination to education. To keep them in a good mood, the enslaved masses would be entertained with happy tunes, constantly being played for their enjoyment. Simonyan argued: “If you think that sounds wild, let’s remember that it isn’t. Let’s remember the 90s when this is exactly what happened. There was fun and music everywhere, but nothing to eat.” Head of RT alleged, in all seriousness: “This is exactly what awaits us in the future if we back down. Are we ready to live that way?” She added: “Let’s not think that this is just some local conflict... For us, this is a question of continuing to exist in our current state.”

Concluding her bizarre performance on Solovyov’s show, Simonyan said: “People ask when, where and how our special operation will end. It will end when all the ‘nerus,’ all the ‘vyrus,’ everyone who wants to turn us into yahoos, everyone who directs them, everyone who brainwashes them, will suffer infamy and shame. It may take 3 months, 3 years or 30 years, so be it. What other choice do we have?” Solovyov replied: “Our other choice? Reduce the whole world to dust. Just not yet.” Smiling, Simonyan** replied, “And we will go to heaven.”

*The significance of the song about The March of the Red Cavalry it's the equivalent of a Custard's Last Stand.
**Symonyan really isn't a true Russian and could even say she's nerus herself?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Ehh, at best they will retain Crimea, and portions of what they currently hold. At worst, they will collapse.

I still question if Putin will survive if the people ever actually learn the truth of how many Russians were pointlessly sent to die in the meat grinder without training, without adequate equipment, and so on. When they realize that what had once been the world's second most powerful and feared military was robbed by Putin and his oligarch buddies. That Russia has become a pariah state.

DP. I was quite happy to sit back and read all the "experts" weigh in on this, but seriously???? Hope you're not a U.S. policymaker or in leadership.



"One S-400 air defence system, which has a range of 248 miles, has been deployed in fields belonging to the Russian State Agricultural University in the northwest of Moscow.
Another has been deployed to the Losiny Ostrov National Park near Sokolniki district in the northeast of the city.
The S-400 is capable of shooting down up to 80 targets simultaneously and is said to be able to travel at a speed of more than 10,000mph."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11647931/Putin-deploys-air-defence-systems-Moscow-amid-fears-Ukrainian-strikes-capital.html

Isn't Ukraine West by Southwest of Moscow? What do you think this is positioned for? Hmm. I wonder.

"Its purpose is the protection of civil and military point and area targets, for motorised or mechanised troops up to regimental size or as defensive asset of higher ranking air defence systems like S-300/S-400. The system has capability for anti-munitions missions.
Additional missiles, one specifically designed to engage unmanned aerial vehicles, and another one hypersonic, developing speeds of more than Mach 5, have been developed for the Pantsir system."
On 19 January 2023, pictures posted online show that a Pantsir air defence system has been placed on two buildings in Moscow. Including the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Education. Such a deployment of point defence systems is not unheard of, the US government uses NASAMS and Avenger systems to protect Washington D.C., this is the first time they have been deployed in Moscow.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

I wonder why you'd need a short-range hypersonic surface-to-air missile deployed on Moscow rooftops and not somewhere between Ukraine and Moscow? Hmm. It must be to shoot down all those hypersonic Ukrainian drones buzzing all the chicks at Gorky Park.. yeah.. that's it.

"Z" can stand for Zapad, but I think the Atlantic put it best in this article:

"An Army of Zombies is leading us to Hell"
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/09/russia-exile-putin-military-draft/671541/

You really don't understand what's happening at all. In wars where many people die, the population becomes desensitized to death. They stop caring about anything. They stop resisting. There is no logic or empathy anymore. That void has been filled with ruthlessness and despair. From Putin's perspective, the more that die the better. It helps cement their resolve.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am?

This is the same air defense system that they claimed could easily shoot down and defeat HIMARS. But which has completely failed to do so.

Russian overhyping and believing too much in their own propaganda. Pantsir, S-300 and S-400 air defense systems deployed in Ukraine have largely failed against HIMARS and in fact a number of those Russian air defense systems deployed to Ukraine have been destroyed over the last year. And, in cases where they were captured or studied after being destroyed, they showed signs of extremely poor maintenance. Imagine, dry-rotted tires on a $15 million dollar Pantsir launcher. Putin's oligarch buddies were paid countless millions in maintenance and supply contracts for the military, but just stole the money and built yachts and dachas, bought condos in Dubai and everything else. That is the sad state of the Russian military these days.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Ehh, at best they will retain Crimea, and portions of what they currently hold. At worst, they will collapse.

I still question if Putin will survive if the people ever actually learn the truth of how many Russians were pointlessly sent to die in the meat grinder without training, without adequate equipment, and so on. When they realize that what had once been the world's second most powerful and feared military was robbed by Putin and his oligarch buddies. That Russia has become a pariah state.

DP. I was quite happy to sit back and read all the "experts" weigh in on this, but seriously???? Hope you're not a U.S. policymaker or in leadership.



"One S-400 air defence system, which has a range of 248 miles, has been deployed in fields belonging to the Russian State Agricultural University in the northwest of Moscow.
Another has been deployed to the Losiny Ostrov National Park near Sokolniki district in the northeast of the city.
The S-400 is capable of shooting down up to 80 targets simultaneously and is said to be able to travel at a speed of more than 10,000mph."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11647931/Putin-deploys-air-defence-systems-Moscow-amid-fears-Ukrainian-strikes-capital.html

Isn't Ukraine West by Southwest of Moscow? What do you think this is positioned for? Hmm. I wonder.

"Its purpose is the protection of civil and military point and area targets, for motorised or mechanised troops up to regimental size or as defensive asset of higher ranking air defence systems like S-300/S-400. The system has capability for anti-munitions missions.
Additional missiles, one specifically designed to engage unmanned aerial vehicles, and another one hypersonic, developing speeds of more than Mach 5, have been developed for the Pantsir system."
On 19 January 2023, pictures posted online show that a Pantsir air defence system has been placed on two buildings in Moscow. Including the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Education. Such a deployment of point defence systems is not unheard of, the US government uses NASAMS and Avenger systems to protect Washington D.C., this is the first time they have been deployed in Moscow.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

I wonder why you'd need a short-range hypersonic surface-to-air missile deployed on Moscow rooftops and not somewhere between Ukraine and Moscow? Hmm. It must be to shoot down all those hypersonic Ukrainian drones buzzing all the chicks at Gorky Park.. yeah.. that's it.

"Z" can stand for Zapad, but I think the Atlantic put it best in this article:

"An Army of Zombies is leading us to Hell"
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/09/russia-exile-putin-military-draft/671541/

You really don't understand what's happening at all. In wars where many people die, the population becomes desensitized to death. They stop caring about anything. They stop resisting. There is no logic or empathy anymore. That void has been filled with ruthlessness and despair. From Putin's perspective, the more that die the better. It helps cement their resolve.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am?

This is the same air defense system that they claimed could easily shoot down and defeat HIMARS. But which has completely failed to do so.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

Keep up kid. "Dog" in Russian or other Slavic dialects can refer to or be slang for a former Soviet Union satellite, a lackey, an impotent person (ex. barking dogs yap but the caravan moves on).

Anonymous wrote:Putin will launch a Nuke into Germany.

He launches a nuke, and Moscow, Petrograd, and wherever he's trying to hide, cease to be.

But I don't think he will. Nuclear deterrence has always been a bogeyman at the fore of Russian military psyche. As much as they think they can rattle the sabers, they know it would be the end for them if they ever actually pushed the button.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Yeah, weird, because it translates from Mongolian to "Do you want to be a dog's brother?"

Anonymous wrote:

Ehh, at best they will retain Crimea, and portions of what they currently hold. At worst, they will collapse.

I still question if Putin will survive if the people ever actually learn the truth of how many Russians were pointlessly sent to die in the meat grinder without training, without adequate equipment, and so on. When they realize that what had once been the world's second most powerful and feared military was robbed by Putin and his oligarch buddies. That Russia has become a pariah state.

DP. I was quite happy to sit back and read all the "experts" weigh in on this, but seriously???? Hope you're not a U.S. policymaker or in leadership.



"One S-400 air defence system, which has a range of 248 miles, has been deployed in fields belonging to the Russian State Agricultural University in the northwest of Moscow.
Another has been deployed to the Losiny Ostrov National Park near Sokolniki district in the northeast of the city.
The S-400 is capable of shooting down up to 80 targets simultaneously and is said to be able to travel at a speed of more than 10,000mph."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11647931/Putin-deploys-air-defence-systems-Moscow-amid-fears-Ukrainian-strikes-capital.html

Isn't Ukraine West by Southwest of Moscow? What do you think this is positioned for? Hmm. I wonder.

"Its purpose is the protection of civil and military point and area targets, for motorised or mechanised troops up to regimental size or as defensive asset of higher ranking air defence systems like S-300/S-400. The system has capability for anti-munitions missions.
Additional missiles, one specifically designed to engage unmanned aerial vehicles, and another one hypersonic, developing speeds of more than Mach 5, have been developed for the Pantsir system."
On 19 January 2023, pictures posted online show that a Pantsir air defence system has been placed on two buildings in Moscow. Including the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Education. Such a deployment of point defence systems is not unheard of, the US government uses NASAMS and Avenger systems to protect Washington D.C., this is the first time they have been deployed in Moscow.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

I wonder why you'd need a short-range hypersonic surface-to-air missile deployed on Moscow rooftops and not somewhere between Ukraine and Moscow? Hmm. It must be to shoot down all those hypersonic Ukrainian drones buzzing all the chicks at Gorky Park.. yeah.. that's it.

"Z" can stand for Zapad, but I think the Atlantic put it best in this article:

"An Army of Zombies is leading us to Hell"
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/09/russia-exile-putin-military-draft/671541/

You really don't understand what's happening at all. In wars where many people die, the population becomes desensitized to death. They stop caring about anything. They stop resisting. There is no logic or empathy anymore. That void has been filled with ruthlessness and despair. From Putin's perspective, the more that die the better. It helps cement their resolve.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am?

Putin will launch a Nuke into Germany.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

This thread got weird

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Chechen

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Why are you posting in Mongolian?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

Patronymics are not used in Chechen so it's quite irrelevant.

Нохчийн мотт ахь буьйц?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

I think Kadyrov will try to do a power grab. I suspect Prigozhin may as well. Although by the same token I sometimes wonder if Prigozhin may also be on constant guard lest he himself fall out of a window.

I know people like to throw around these scenarios, but they’re kinda ridiculous. You all have watched too many movies and clearly don’t know anything about Kadyrov or Prigozhin beyond what you read in a couple news articles.

Actually, no. I actually have written articles about Prigozhin and his involvement with PMCs and the Internet Research Agency. And I also am quite familiar with Kadyrov, Chechnya, Chechen politics from 1991 to present, and Russian Federation internal politics in general. The scenarios talked about in this thread are no more ridiculous than the current situation Russia is in, which is pretty ridiculous. If you actually think the points made are ridiculous, then what do you see as realistic? There is no "normalcy" in Russia, never has been. At least look at the last 30 years and notice how many extremely "ridiculous" events have happened. Some points made may be facetious, but not entirely out of the realm of possibility. It would be more ridiculous if you asserted with 100% confidence what will happen in Russia in 10 years. That's why everyone in this thread is just speculating and we should all realize that.

You keep reciting your credentials like they mean anything but the fact of the matter is that most of what passes for "analysis" of Russia in the US is driven entirely by agenda not facts.

I’m not even the PP you were initially referring to (the Kadyrov post), I’m only saying I do actually know what I’m talking about, and I’m not saying I know what will happen. But I won’t count out even absurd-sounding possibilities. If anything you sound arrogant, or overly offended, when you dismiss any interpretation as agenda-driven. There are a dozen different speculations in this thread and I wouldn’t count out any of them, nobody has gone so far as to say that Putin is just going to blow up the world or that he’s going to become enlightened on an ayahuasca trip and call for world peace.

Do I personally think Kadyrov will try and power grab in Moscow and get his hands on the nukes? No. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he does something reckless if the house of cards crumbles.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm kind of worried about what Kadyrov will do without Putin. I hope if Putin goes, that R.A.K. goes with him (interesting that Kadyrov's initials mean "cancer" in Russian) Hopefully he and his TikTok army will become irrelevant, or better yet, maybe the TikTok army will turn against him once the cash spigot is off.

I think Kadyrov will try to do a power grab. I suspect Prigozhin may as well. Although by the same token I sometimes wonder if Prigozhin may also be on constant guard lest he himself fall out of a window.

I know people like to throw around these scenarios, but they’re kinda ridiculous. You all have watched too many movies and clearly don’t know anything about Kadyrov or Prigozhin beyond what you read in a couple news articles.

Actually, no. I actually have written articles about Prigozhin and his involvement with PMCs and the Internet Research Agency. And I also am quite familiar with Kadyrov, Chechnya, Chechen politics from 1991 to present, and Russian Federation internal politics in general. The scenarios talked about in this thread are no more ridiculous than the current situation Russia is in, which is pretty ridiculous. If you actually think the points made are ridiculous, then what do you see as realistic? There is no "normalcy" in Russia, never has been. At least look at the last 30 years and notice how many extremely "ridiculous" events have happened. Some points made may be facetious, but not entirely out of the realm of possibility. It would be more ridiculous if you asserted with 100% confidence what will happen in Russia in 10 years. That's why everyone in this thread is just speculating and we should all realize that.

You keep reciting your credentials like they mean anything but the fact of the matter is that most of what passes for "analysis" of Russia in the US is driven entirely by agenda not facts.

[quote=Anonymous

Ehh, at best they will retain Crimea, and portions of what they currently hold. At worst, they will collapse.

I still question if Putin will survive if the people ever actually learn the truth of how many Russians were pointlessly sent to die in the meat grinder without training, without adequate equipment, and so on. When they realize that what had once been the world's second most powerful and feared military was robbed by Putin and his oligarch buddies. That Russia has become a pariah state.