Lots of agencies are requiring more in-person work as of January 1. Traffic will be up everywhere in the city.

I have coworkers at my agency who have been on “medical WFH” and now have to start coming in at least a few times per pay period. There’s going to be a change in traffic starting this month.

Anonymous wrote:+1 Why is all of DC dependent on fed workers? Also, I remember dc residents hating us for all the traffic that we bring downtown from boring suburbia. Where was all the love back then?

It’s funny right. They want your money but not only don’t want you. For a city that is itself says that it’s struggling, they sure do put on a lot of airs.

Anonymous wrote:Again, why does this fall on the feds? It’s not fair or logical.

It doesn’t and shouldn’t. Thats the point. DC always keeps running to the Feds to solve their problems. I think that well has run dry and it doesn’t help DC’s cause that Bowser backed the wrong horse and was the chief surrogate for Bloomberg during the primary. Considering that Biden just made South Carolina the first Democratic primary state I doubt that is something that he’s forgotten.

Again, why does this fall on the feds? It’s not fair or logical.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:You are correct---loft conversions worked because they offered huge spaces, extremely high ceilings, big windows. DC was never an industrial town so we don't have the types of warehouses, 19th and early 20th c mills, etc. that work for that sort of thing. The only thing that was similar in DC was old school buildings and the city no longer wishes to sell those off to developers for conversions. Late 20th c office buildings have 8 foot ceilings. Mid block buildings have little natural light, the column layout results in long narrow dark units with low ceilings. Sure, the city could create lousy units and make it all subsidized housing, but do people really want downtown DC to become one huge extremely low income housing project? The working poor won't go for those micro-units----they'd get bigger units and more natural light by staying out in the 1970s garden apartments in Langley Park.

If the feds won't send their workforce back to work, they should eliminate federal income tax for DC residents. THAT would cause people to have an entirely new attitude towards downtown residential development and mitigate the disaster that downtown is slowly becoming. Of course, we'd immediately become the United State equivalent of Monaco---housing prices would spike as the wealthy try to become DC residents.

What exactly will feds back in the office in DC do for the city? Do lines of people wearing shabby Kirkland non-iron shirts suddenly cause the homeless to move out to MD? Will the DC tax collections go way up off sales tax on an $8 burrito at Moe's?

The issue is not the sales tax receipts but the commercial property tax revenue. Empty storefronts depresses commercial property values which leads to lower commercial property tax collected. The sales taxes are a bonus.

Also, return to in-person work might convince Feds not to move out of DC or convince those with long commutes to move into DC. The value proposition obviously changes dramatically.

So it makes a big difference, particularly when Federal jobs are a such a large part of the white collar labor force.

+1 Why is all of DC dependent on fed workers? Also, I remember dc residents hating us for all the traffic that we bring downtown from boring suburbia. Where was all the love back then?

Anonymous wrote:You are correct---loft conversions worked because they offered huge spaces, extremely high ceilings, big windows. DC was never an industrial town so we don't have the types of warehouses, 19th and early 20th c mills, etc. that work for that sort of thing. The only thing that was similar in DC was old school buildings and the city no longer wishes to sell those off to developers for conversions. Late 20th c office buildings have 8 foot ceilings. Mid block buildings have little natural light, the column layout results in long narrow dark units with low ceilings. Sure, the city could create lousy units and make it all subsidized housing, but do people really want downtown DC to become one huge extremely low income housing project? The working poor won't go for those micro-units----they'd get bigger units and more natural light by staying out in the 1970s garden apartments in Langley Park.

If the feds won't send their workforce back to work, they should eliminate federal income tax for DC residents. THAT would cause people to have an entirely new attitude towards downtown residential development and mitigate the disaster that downtown is slowly becoming. Of course, we'd immediately become the United State equivalent of Monaco---housing prices would spike as the wealthy try to become DC residents.

What exactly will feds back in the office in DC do for the city? Do lines of people wearing shabby Kirkland non-iron shirts suddenly cause the homeless to move out to MD? Will the DC tax collections go way up off sales tax on an $8 burrito at Moe's?

Anonymous wrote:You are correct---loft conversions worked because they offered huge spaces, extremely high ceilings, big windows. DC was never an industrial town so we don't have the types of warehouses, 19th and early 20th c mills, etc. that work for that sort of thing. The only thing that was similar in DC was old school buildings and the city no longer wishes to sell those off to developers for conversions. Late 20th c office buildings have 8 foot ceilings. Mid block buildings have little natural light, the column layout results in long narrow dark units with low ceilings. Sure, the city could create lousy units and make it all subsidized housing, but do people really want downtown DC to become one huge extremely low income housing project? The working poor won't go for those micro-units----they'd get bigger units and more natural light by staying out in the 1970s garden apartments in Langley Park.

If the feds won't send their workforce back to work, they should eliminate federal income tax for DC residents. THAT would cause people to have an entirely new attitude towards downtown residential development and mitigate the disaster that downtown is slowly becoming. Of course, we'd immediately become the United State equivalent of Monaco---housing prices would spike as the wealthy try to become DC residents.

The only way I see these commercial buildings emulating lofts is if they cut through the floor plates and create multi-story units. However, I have zero confidence that the economics of this works out until or unless the value of these buildings drops considerably lower. And at that point, downtown DC would not be a very nice place to be.

I agree that the biggest potential due to the limitations are subsidized low-income housing. However, you are correct that even low-income residents have options and this would be a serious adverse selection situation. Families stay in Wards 7/8 and the burbs, while these potential small and dark units would be occupied by mostly single, formerly unhoused men. That is probably not the vision that the mayor seeks, however the mayor’s goal for downtown is contrary to current policy.

Current policy is to broadly expand housing construction in Ward 3. If there will be more housing options in Ward 3 for higher income folks with lots of amenities, like City Ridge, then who is the target market for downtown? There is no coherent strategy, which is a concern.

If I was mayor, I would probably try to lean into what downtown DC is best set up for, which is as a center for conferences and tourism. Ban AirBnB and short-term rentals unconditionally throughout the city (no exceptions) and look to convert downtown commercial office buildings into hotels, entertainment, etc. Odd units with low ceilings and limited light dont work well for an apartment but are fine for a hotel.

You are correct---loft conversions worked because they offered huge spaces, extremely high ceilings, big windows. DC was never an industrial town so we don't have the types of warehouses, 19th and early 20th c mills, etc. that work for that sort of thing. The only thing that was similar in DC was old school buildings and the city no longer wishes to sell those off to developers for conversions. Late 20th c office buildings have 8 foot ceilings. Mid block buildings have little natural light, the column layout results in long narrow dark units with low ceilings. Sure, the city could create lousy units and make it all subsidized housing, but do people really want downtown DC to become one huge extremely low income housing project? The working poor won't go for those micro-units----they'd get bigger units and more natural light by staying out in the 1970s garden apartments in Langley Park.

If the feds won't send their workforce back to work, they should eliminate federal income tax for DC residents. THAT would cause people to have an entirely new attitude towards downtown residential development and mitigate the disaster that downtown is slowly becoming. Of course, we'd immediately become the United State equivalent of Monaco---housing prices would spike as the wealthy try to become DC residents.

Anonymous wrote:The idea of converting office buildings to residential is not the magic bullet. First, many if not most late 20th century office buildings are not architecturally conducive to conversion due to how the interior columns are placed, use of post-tension concrete in the slabs, etc.---all factors that make it difficult (and very expensive) to redesign to create viable residential units. Second, people choose to live downtown to have a short commute. When you don't have to commute anywhere, there are lots more pleasant neighborhoods to live in around downtown DC for less money. Thinking Connecticut Avenue, Wisconsin Ave., Dupont, Adams Morgan, Union Market, Shaw---all neighborhoods with lots of multifamily buildings and lots more in terms of amenities like restaurants, grocery stores, hardware stores, drycleaners and retail shopping. With the office commuters gone, retail has shuttered downtown---the streets are deserted at 7 pm. The significant amounts of mentally ill homeless and lack of foot traffic makes it feel unsafe. So it would be expensive to convert the buildings, expensive construction equates to expensive rent, and potential renters have better choices elsewhere. The federal workforce not returning to work is having a disastrous rippling effect on all of downtown.

I put office conversions on the same level as industrial loft conversions in the late 90s. The main reason they were successful initially is that they offered a huge amenity, space. Sure they were initially in neighborhoods that offered few amenities at first, however they were able to entice people by offering lots of space. I’m not sure how the economics of that works out for a lot of commercial buildings right now that may still have some residual value, even if it’s substantially lower than before.

What is the amenity that they plan to offer people if the plan is to convert these large office buildings into small windowless micro studios and Jr 1-BDs? I agree that they will be a hard sell without having something special to offer people and “downtown living” is really not enough.

The idea of converting office buildings to residential is not the magic bullet. First, many if not most late 20th century office buildings are not architecturally conducive to conversion due to how the interior columns are placed, use of post-tension concrete in the slabs, etc.---all factors that make it difficult (and very expensive) to redesign to create viable residential units. Second, people choose to live downtown to have a short commute. When you don't have to commute anywhere, there are lots more pleasant neighborhoods to live in around downtown DC for less money. Thinking Connecticut Avenue, Wisconsin Ave., Dupont, Adams Morgan, Union Market, Shaw---all neighborhoods with lots of multifamily buildings and lots more in terms of amenities like restaurants, grocery stores, hardware stores, drycleaners and retail shopping. With the office commuters gone, retail has shuttered downtown---the streets are deserted at 7 pm. The significant amounts of mentally ill homeless and lack of foot traffic makes it feel unsafe. So it would be expensive to convert the buildings, expensive construction equates to expensive rent, and potential renters have better choices elsewhere. The federal workforce not returning to work is having a disastrous rippling effect on all of downtown.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mayor Bowser has now unveiled her proposal for downtown DC and it’s wild stuff that is primarily reliant on the Federal government and the real estate industry making financial donations to the city for absolutely zero reason.

Here’s the plan:
- Increase residents in downtown by 15,000 in 5 years with a long term goal to have 100,000 residents living in downtown DC. How? Doesn’t say.
- Have the Federal government end remote work. How and why would they do this? Doesn’t say.
- Have the Federal government give away federal office buildings that are underutilized for either use by non-profits or conversion to housing (give away to developers?). How and why would they do this? Doesn’t say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/12/15/dc-office-residential-conversions-downtown/

Also committed not to increasing property taxes. That should worry everyone about DCs future financial condition that these discussions are taking place. These folks are fundamentally unserious.

Federal remote work will significantly scale back at some point — it’ll be more like the private sector, where a few days a week are required in the office. (Or, if a Republican is president again, it’ll be all in-person.) I don’t think that’s such a pipe dream.

No it won’t. Federal salaries have not kept pace with the private sector. As a result, it is very difficult for even high ranking Federal officials to live within a decent commuting distance. The choices are very basic, radically increase salaries or continue to allow extensive remote work. Doesn’t matter if it’s a Democrat or Republican, this bell cannot be unrung.

Federal salaries were already not at par with the private sector before remote work, though, so why would that be the reason they keep feds working all-remotely much longer than private employers do?

Once a benefit is given it will be harder to take away. If your hope is that a new Republican President in 2 years will snap their fingers and force Federal employees back to FT in-office work after 5 years of remote work to satisfy a request of the DC government then I’d say LOL. Federal workers already lived far away and with remote work many have moved even further away. If this is DCs downtown revitalization strategy, the city is doomed. At minimum your best case scenario is that the city needs to wait at least two more years for a return of Federal workers downtown. What happens to downtown in the meantime? And how does the real estate sector respond? Do they take that gamble or do they mark down their losses now and hope to convert to other uses? None of it makes sense and you have to wonder why they are trying to alleviate concerns about tax increases now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mayor Bowser has now unveiled her proposal for downtown DC and it’s wild stuff that is primarily reliant on the Federal government and the real estate industry making financial donations to the city for absolutely zero reason.

Here’s the plan:
- Increase residents in downtown by 15,000 in 5 years with a long term goal to have 100,000 residents living in downtown DC. How? Doesn’t say.
- Have the Federal government end remote work. How and why would they do this? Doesn’t say.
- Have the Federal government give away federal office buildings that are underutilized for either use by non-profits or conversion to housing (give away to developers?). How and why would they do this? Doesn’t say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/12/15/dc-office-residential-conversions-downtown/

Also committed not to increasing property taxes. That should worry everyone about DCs future financial condition that these discussions are taking place. These folks are fundamentally unserious.

Federal remote work will significantly scale back at some point — it’ll be more like the private sector, where a few days a week are required in the office. (Or, if a Republican is president again, it’ll be all in-person.) I don’t think that’s such a pipe dream.

No it won’t. Federal salaries have not kept pace with the private sector. As a result, it is very difficult for even high ranking Federal officials to live within a decent commuting distance. The choices are very basic, radically increase salaries or continue to allow extensive remote work. Doesn’t matter if it’s a Democrat or Republican, this bell cannot be unrung.

Federal salaries were already not at par with the private sector before remote work, though, so why would that be the reason they keep feds working all-remotely much longer than private employers do?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mayor Bowser has now unveiled her proposal for downtown DC and it’s wild stuff that is primarily reliant on the Federal government and the real estate industry making financial donations to the city for absolutely zero reason.

Here’s the plan:
- Increase residents in downtown by 15,000 in 5 years with a long term goal to have 100,000 residents living in downtown DC. How? Doesn’t say.
- Have the Federal government end remote work. How and why would they do this? Doesn’t say.
- Have the Federal government give away federal office buildings that are underutilized for either use by non-profits or conversion to housing (give away to developers?). How and why would they do this? Doesn’t say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/12/15/dc-office-residential-conversions-downtown/

Also committed not to increasing property taxes. That should worry everyone about DCs future financial condition that these discussions are taking place. These folks are fundamentally unserious.

Federal remote work will significantly scale back at some point — it’ll be more like the private sector, where a few days a week are required in the office. (Or, if a Republican is president again, it’ll be all in-person.) I don’t think that’s such a pipe dream.

No it won’t. Federal salaries have not kept pace with the private sector. As a result, it is very difficult for even high ranking Federal officials to live within a decent commuting distance. The choices are very basic, radically increase salaries or continue to allow extensive remote work. Doesn’t matter if it’s a Democrat or Republican, this bell cannot be unrung.

Anonymous wrote:Mayor Bowser has now unveiled her proposal for downtown DC and it’s wild stuff that is primarily reliant on the Federal government and the real estate industry making financial donations to the city for absolutely zero reason.

Here’s the plan:
- Increase residents in downtown by 15,000 in 5 years with a long term goal to have 100,000 residents living in downtown DC. How? Doesn’t say.
- Have the Federal government end remote work. How and why would they do this? Doesn’t say.
- Have the Federal government give away federal office buildings that are underutilized for either use by non-profits or conversion to housing (give away to developers?). How and why would they do this? Doesn’t say.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2022/12/15/dc-office-residential-conversions-downtown/

Also committed not to increasing property taxes. That should worry everyone about DCs future financial condition that these discussions are taking place. These folks are fundamentally unserious.

Federal remote work will significantly scale back at some point — it’ll be more like the private sector, where a few days a week are required in the office. (Or, if a Republican is president again, it’ll be all in-person.) I don’t think that’s such a pipe dream.