Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Generally that is how probability works, but feel free to elaborate.

Nope, it's not even close. For independent events (i.e., events not correlated with each other), the likelihood of the event happening at least once = 1-p^N, where p = the probability of the event NOT happening for each event and N equals the number of events.

If you have a 50/50 chance (or 50%) chance of making a basket in basketball, do you have 100% chance of making at least one shot if you make 2 shots? No. Assuming each basket is an independent event (not correlated with each other), your likelihood of making at least one shot are 1 minus the chance that you will miss both shots or 1-(0.5*0.5) = 75%

In the context of these 5% acceptance rates, if you apply to 10 schools and each has an acceptance rate of 0.05, your chance of NOT being accepted by each one of them is 0.95. Again, assuming each college's decision is independent (not correlated with the decisions of other colleges), your changes of getting in to at least one (i.e., not getting rejected by all of them) = 1-(0.95)^10 = 0.4

But, of course, these events are likely not totally independent (i.e., if you get rejected from one there is probably something that makes you more likely to get rejected from others). Which complicates the statistics....but doesn't get you closer to 0.5 in your scenario.

DP. Thanks for explaining the theory behind this so clearly, but just reading about last year’s acceptance cycle certainly cemented this principle for me. Every kid needs to have a safety they would be happy to attend.

But the really tricky thing is the bolded. The events are not independent, but the relevant factors are completely opaque. It happens every year. Some kid gets in everywhere they apply. Sometimes it’s easy to see why, but sometimes it’s just some normal high stats unconnected UMC white kid. Why did all the ADs love him or her and not some kid that looks pretty identical that got in nowhere? Who the h*ll knows. You won’t know which one your kid is until it’s all over.

My kid is applying to 7 schools EA, and one more either ED II or RD (doesn’t do EA). I’m comfortable with this #, because at least 3 are safeties, two are targets (leaning toward safety), one is a true target and two are reaches. The list is heavy in safeties, because these are the schools my kid likes and I think he’d be happy at any of them. Two have rolling admissions, and if he doesn’t get in, we’ll reconsider a list for RD.

Things that you know about kids admitted to top schools like high stats don’t explain much. It is things that you can’t know like essays or interviews or even things that the kid can’t know like teachers recs must be making the difference

Anonymous wrote:All of these 35/36 ACT kids applying to Pitt as their safety are mucking it up for kids who actually want to go there.

You do understand that Pitt does know how to predict their yield, right?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Generally that is how probability works, but feel free to elaborate.

Nope, it's not even close. For independent events (i.e., events not correlated with each other), the likelihood of the event happening at least once = 1-p^N, where p = the probability of the event NOT happening for each event and N equals the number of events.

If you have a 50/50 chance (or 50%) chance of making a basket in basketball, do you have 100% chance of making at least one shot if you make 2 shots? No. Assuming each basket is an independent event (not correlated with each other), your likelihood of making at least one shot are 1 minus the chance that you will miss both shots or 1-(0.5*0.5) = 75%

In the context of these 5% acceptance rates, if you apply to 10 schools and each has an acceptance rate of 0.05, your chance of NOT being accepted by each one of them is 0.95. Again, assuming each college's decision is independent (not correlated with the decisions of other colleges), your changes of getting in to at least one (i.e., not getting rejected by all of them) = 1-(0.95)^10 = 0.4

But, of course, these events are likely not totally independent (i.e., if you get rejected from one there is probably something that makes you more likely to get rejected from others). Which complicates the statistics....but doesn't get you closer to 0.5 in your scenario.

DP. Thanks for explaining the theory behind this so clearly, but just reading about last year’s acceptance cycle certainly cemented this principle for me. Every kid needs to have a safety they would be happy to attend.

But the really tricky thing is the bolded. The events are not independent, but the relevant factors are completely opaque. It happens every year. Some kid gets in everywhere they apply. Sometimes it’s easy to see why, but sometimes it’s just some normal high stats unconnected UMC white kid. Why did all the ADs love him or her and not some kid that looks pretty identical that got in nowhere? Who the h*ll knows. You won’t know which one your kid is until it’s all over.

My kid is applying to 7 schools EA, and one more either ED II or RD (doesn’t do EA). I’m comfortable with this #, because at least 3 are safeties, two are targets (leaning toward safety), one is a true target and two are reaches. The list is heavy in safeties, because these are the schools my kid likes and I think he’d be happy at any of them. Two have rolling admissions, and if he doesn’t get in, we’ll reconsider a list for RD.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DS applying to six. Cut out a few after getting in at Pitt.

Same. DD applying to 5 more after getting in at Pitt.

Seriously, when did Pitt become the go-to DCUM universal safety? Not on our list but I also feel sorry for kids who actually want to go there when it seems like everyone else using it as their backup for Harvard or Duke or whatever.

High stats kid applying to 13

6 reach (3 lottery)
2 "hard target"
2 match
3 likely

Applying to 1 SCEA, 1 state Ea and 1 rolling admission. Applied to Cambridge.

Would have been more matches, but she liked the most likely better than some of the matches. May add 1 more match.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Generally that is how probability works, but feel free to elaborate.

Nope, it's not even close. For independent events (i.e., events not correlated with each other), the likelihood of the event happening at least once = 1-p^N, where p = the probability of the event NOT happening for each event and N equals the number of events.

If you have a 50/50 chance (or 50%) chance of making a basket in basketball, do you have 100% chance of making at least one shot if you make 2 shots? No. Assuming each basket is an independent event (not correlated with each other), your likelihood of making at least one shot are 1 minus the chance that you will miss both shots or 1-(0.5*0.5) = 75%

In the context of these 5% acceptance rates, if you apply to 10 schools and each has an acceptance rate of 0.05, your chance of NOT being accepted by each one of them is 0.95. Again, assuming each college's decision is independent (not correlated with the decisions of other colleges), your changes of getting in to at least one (i.e., not getting rejected by all of them) = 1-(0.95)^10 = 0.4

But, of course, these events are likely not totally independent (i.e., if you get rejected from one there is probably something that makes you more likely to get rejected from others). Which complicates the statistics....but doesn't get you closer to 0.5 in your scenario.

2 by Nov. 1, one ED and one EA. if the ED doesn't work out then will apply to 4 more on list including an EDII.

But 3 of the 6 are ones DC has a good chance of getting in and DC will be happy at any of them.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Yeah, if it did you would just need to apply to 20 schools for a guaranteed admission. Either way, dumb strategy unless applying EA/ED and then reassessing

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. I never said there was a guarantee of anything. In fact, I think I referenced the opposite, "hope".

You cannot apply to multiple private schools EA (only one) and by the time you get the decision, the other application windows will have closed so I would love to hear your strategy on how to approach this.

I suggest you apply to 10 more schools that have an acceptance rate of 5%. Then multiply your 20 schools by 5% to get 100% acceptance rate. Maybe add one more school to be sure for 105%

I hope you are not serious with your post. Find a couple of safety schools that have acceptance rate close to 100 for your kids stats

LOL

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Yeah, if it did you would just need to apply to 20 schools for a guaranteed admission. Either way, dumb strategy unless applying EA/ED and then reassessing

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. I never said there was a guarantee of anything. In fact, I think I referenced the opposite, "hope".

You cannot apply to multiple private schools EA (only one) and by the time you get the decision, the other application windows will have closed so I would love to hear your strategy on how to approach this.

I suggest you apply to 10 more schools that have an acceptance rate of 5%. Then multiply your 20 schools by 5% to get 100% acceptance rate. Maybe add one more school to be sure for 105%

I hope you are not serious with your post. Find a couple of safety schools that have acceptance rate close to 100 for your kids stats

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Yeah, if it did you would just need to apply to 20 schools for a guaranteed admission. Either way, dumb strategy unless applying EA/ED and then reassessing

Probability is the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. I never said there was a guarantee of anything. In fact, I think I referenced the opposite, "hope".

You cannot apply to multiple private schools EA (only one) and by the time you get the decision, the other application windows will have closed so I would love to hear your strategy on how to approach this.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Yeah, if it did you would just need to apply to 20 schools for a guaranteed admission. Either way, dumb strategy unless applying EA/ED and then reassessing

Anonymous wrote:All of these 35/36 ACT kids applying to Pitt as their safety are mucking it up for kids who actually want to go there.

And your kid is mucking it up for kids who actually want to go to your kid's safety. See how that works?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Generally that is how probability works, but feel free to elaborate.

Anonymous wrote:Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.

That's not how the stats work.

Mine is applying to 14. He is in the top range of scores for all of them and maybe I spend too much time on college confidential with noble peace prize winners being rejected at all their schools, but I am hoping he gets in *somewhere*. At least 10 of them have a qualified applicant admit rate of under 5%. So if I multiply that out, it's 50% and the other 4 are a little better but still I feeling like nothing is a true safety on his list. But hoping with 14 that he will hit something.