Anonymous wrote:I don't think you can judge much at all pre-puberty. The problem is, late to puberty kids sometimes have trouble keeping up with the early to puberty kids and they give up the sport entirely or just get different opportunities, etc. It is worse in team sports than individual sports though so I would not worry about it until he is on the other side of puberty.

+1

I don't think you can judge much at all pre-puberty. The problem is, late to puberty kids sometimes have trouble keeping up with the early to puberty kids and they give up the sport entirely or just get different opportunities, etc. It is worse in team sports than individual sports though so I would not worry about it until he is on the other side of puberty.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Necro post, but here's some data:
We reviewed the top 500 recruits in the USA (and excluding international swimmers) and looked at their 100freestyle times from back when they were 10 years old searching for correlation.

2024 Top 100 Recruits:
62.71% had AA or better times when they were 10.
93.22% had BB or better.
Only 1.69% had below B.

2024 Top 300 Recruits:
52.54% had AA or better times when they were 10.
91.53% had BB or better.
2.26% had below B times.

2024 Top 500 Recruits:
48.22% had AA or better times when they were 10.
88.67% had BB or better.
2.59% had below B times.

Almost all of the top 500 swimmers were recruited into D-I (or Ivy/MIT) programs. Less then 10 went into D2/D3.

So, yes, it turns out you can tell whether a kid will be fast.

If I read your post correctly, this means that there is a whole other world of swimmers - 2/3 of them - below the top 500 who go on to swim in college in D2 and D3. I don’t know about swimming, but for my kid’s sport the number of players are about equally split between D1/D2/D3. And D3 is FUN.

Thanks for bumping this. What sport

It also totally depends on training. Some kids swim 2 -3 days a week max until they decide to get serious about it. They may not have AA+ cute simply bc they don’t swim that much yet. Then once they put in the time in the pool, they improve significantly. Kids doing the max workout schedule and not making these cuts are less likely to improve.

[necro datafreak here]
Yes that's true. The Op and much of the discussion after was regarding scholarships, though, so we limited our focus to the top 500.

There was a study done years ago that showed only 10% of the top 100, 10-year olds remained in the top 100 when they were 16. We found this study limited and backwards....

at 10 kids do lots of other sports. A stud athlete who is great at swimming, basketball, and baseball at 10 VERY likely would quit swim to do something more fun.

That's why we limited our focus to PRESENT top athletes and just looked where they were when they were 10. They, obviously, were the true commits to the sport.

We're confident in what our data says...if your kid isn't in the ballpark at 10 he/she (very) likely won't be at 16 BUT (and this is a big but) if the parents are both swimmers or tall/fit/athletic we keep particularly close looks at their kids, even if they may be BB or worse as youngsters.

Anonymous wrote:Necro post, but here's some data:
We reviewed the top 500 recruits in the USA (and excluding international swimmers) and looked at their 100freestyle times from back when they were 10 years old searching for correlation.

2024 Top 100 Recruits:
62.71% had AA or better times when they were 10.
93.22% had BB or better.
Only 1.69% had below B.

2024 Top 300 Recruits:
52.54% had AA or better times when they were 10.
91.53% had BB or better.
2.26% had below B times.

2024 Top 500 Recruits:
48.22% had AA or better times when they were 10.
88.67% had BB or better.
2.59% had below B times.

Almost all of the top 500 swimmers were recruited into D-I (or Ivy/MIT) programs. Less then 10 went into D2/D3.

So, yes, it turns out you can tell whether a kid will be fast.

If I read your post correctly, this means that there is a whole other world of swimmers - 2/3 of them - below the top 500 who go on to swim in college in D2 and D3. I don’t know about swimming, but for my kid’s sport the number of players are about equally split between D1/D2/D3. And D3 is FUN.

Anonymous wrote:Also (less for OP and more for others that may find this), we chose 10 year old times to review because, in age group swimming, there are no times more worthless to compare then age group 11-12 in boys.

Some 12 year old boys have hit puberty and started to shave. Some 11 year olds are still little children that sleep with teddy bears.

This makes national standards for that age group completely bonkers.

Thank you for doing this research. Between the ages of 11-12, there can be as much as 5 year biological age gap between boys, so it makes sense that many boys drop swimming around then. I would guess that many late maturers are lost at this stage because they get discouraged. 11-12 can encompass a lot of different tanner stages.

Only 11% of 10u top 16 swimmers were top 16 when they turned 17-18. Even though you could interpret this as being fast at 10u doesn’t matter, it still is a good predictor of being an elite swimmer. One in 10 of those kids will be an elite top 16 17-18 year old whereas the chances of a BB 10u of being a top 16 swimmer is much much less. What is interesting is that even at age 15/16, only half of those swimmers were still top 16 one to two years later. The slides do not break this out by male/female,
I would assume that males are more likely to “come from nowhere” due to the fact that it’s more common for them to have varying puberty duration and late growth that extends into late teen years and even their 20’s.

Also (less for OP and more for others that may find this), we chose 10 year old times to review because, in age group swimming, there are no times more worthless to compare then age group 11-12 in boys.

Some 12 year old boys have hit puberty and started to shave. Some 11 year olds are still little children that sleep with teddy bears.

This makes national standards for that age group completely bonkers.

Necro post, but here's some data:
We reviewed the top 500 recruits in the USA (and excluding international swimmers) and looked at their 100freestyle times from back when they were 10 years old searching for correlation.

2024 Top 100 Recruits:
62.71% had AA or better times when they were 10.
93.22% had BB or better.
Only 1.69% had below B.

2024 Top 300 Recruits:
52.54% had AA or better times when they were 10.
91.53% had BB or better.
2.26% had below B times.

2024 Top 500 Recruits:
48.22% had AA or better times when they were 10.
88.67% had BB or better.
2.59% had below B times.

Almost all of the top 500 swimmers were recruited into D-I (or Ivy/MIT) programs. Less then 10 went into D2/D3.

So, yes, it turns out you can tell whether a kid will be fast.

Anonymous wrote:Not looking for scholarship…but child thinks he wants to swim in college

Do kids sometimes get good all of a sudden? Right now my child has not really grown and is struggling to keep up.
With the taller kids.

Just trying to help set realistic expectations.

My now 17 year old swimmer was almost unbeatable from 6-10 years old. At 11, the stress and some medical problems kicked in and it was like he just couldn't compete with kids he'd easily beat a year ago. Self esteem took a hit and we all thought it was going to end. He cut back on days in the pool and we figured he'd ride it out and focus on fun at that point.

Something happened at 14 and his energy came back and he was on fire again. IT CAN HAPPEN! It might take moving to a new team or changing things up though.
He's very small so technique had to be perfect (and it was pretty good).
He is still small - 5'7" but he will swim in college.

12 can be tough because he may not build muscle which is what he needs. Get some private lessons and make sure his technique is good and then find out what he can do to get stronger. A coach told us strength was key and I fully believe they were right.

I'm seeing kids age 15-18 who are really fluctuating. One year they are a star and the next year they struggle. I think it's really tough to predict BUT if he loves it. don't give up. It is way too early to predict.