Looks like Irving is up from 1211 last September to 1238 this September, and Lake Braddock is up from 1458 to 1466. No reason to keep pretending West Springfield isn't going to remain overcrowded for years to come.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Keene Mill ES (THE big AAP center for WSHS) showed a decrease from 825 at the end of last school year to 740 in September? What’s going on with that?

Did one of their feeder schools add level 4 AAP?

I’m not sure, I thought they all had LLIV apart from the two schools that go to Sangster instead of KMES for AAP. It did look like last years 6th grade class/this year’s 7th is pretty large, so maybe they just weren’t weren’t replaced by as many kids. But thats still a big drop off. Does anyone know if they had any de-staffing?

Orange Hunt and Hunt Valley lost teachers this year.

All of those WSHS feeders are decreasing in size.

It is a shame the FCPS won't do residency checks between elementary > middle school and between middle school > high school.

I suspect if FCPS did residency checks at those transitions, as well as enforcing no transfers at schools closed to transfers, that WSHS would have an enrollment very close to capacity instead of several hundred over capacity and would not need to be rezoned.

Cardinal Forest UP 20 students
708 September 2024 vs 728 September 2025

Hunt Valley DOWN 68 students students
724 September 2024 vs 656 September 2025

Keene Mill (AAP center with students from other pyramids) DOWN 72 Students
812 September 2024 vs 740 September 2025

Orange Hunt (German Immersion with kids from other pyramids) DOWN 25 Students
875 September 2024 vs 850 September 2025

Rolling Valley (splits with Key/Lewis, also a special ed center) UP 15 students
519 September 2024 vs 534 September 2025

West Springfield ES DOWN 43 Students
542 September 2024 vs 499 September 2025

** Sangster sends around 100-150 students to WSHS each year. Sangster enrollment is basically flat, with a loss of 1 student.
928 September 2024 vs 927 September 2025


The WSHS pyramid elementary schools are down almost 200 students this year, yet the FCPS CIP projections show WSHS continuing significant growth over the next five years.

Why won't FCPS do a residency check at WSHS to figure out why there is such a discrepancy between their elementary and middle school enrollment, and the high school projections and enrollment?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Will they really release this after 5pm?

I’m guessing between 5-6. Then they’ll all skip town for the long weekend until Tuesday morning.

The weren’t gonna answer questions about all this anyway. I don’t see the point. Pop it out there and go home for the weekend.

Anonymous wrote:Will they really release this after 5pm?

They said Evening. I'd bet a whole lot of money that they're waiting until all the admin are home for the weekend so there's no one that has to answer phone calls about it until Monday.

Our school does the same for AAP decisions, they come out after the AAP teacher has gone home for the weekend and the AAP teacher makes it abundantly clear that she will not be looking at her email or phone messages until she is back in the following week.

Anonymous wrote:Will they really release this after 5pm?

I’m guessing between 5-6. Then they’ll all skip town for the long weekend until Tuesday morning.

Anonymous wrote:Will they really release this after 5pm?

Given it’s already after 4:30 pm, sure looks like it.

Will they really release this after 5pm?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Keene Mill ES (THE big AAP center for WSHS) showed a decrease from 825 at the end of last school year to 740 in September? What’s going on with that?

Did one of their feeder schools add level 4 AAP?

I’m not sure, I thought they all had LLIV apart from the two schools that go to Sangster instead of KMES for AAP. It did look like last years 6th grade class/this year’s 7th is pretty large, so maybe they just weren’t weren’t replaced by as many kids. But thats still a big drop off. Does anyone know if they had any de-staffing?

Orange Hunt and Hunt Valley lost teachers this year.

All of those WSHS feeders are decreasing in size.

It is a shame the FCPS won't do residency checks between elementary > middle school and between middle school > high school.

I suspect if FCPS did residency checks at those transitions, as well as enforcing no transfers at schools closed to transfers, that WSHS would have an enrollment very close to capacity instead of several hundred over capacity and would not need to be rezoned.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Keene Mill ES (THE big AAP center for WSHS) showed a decrease from 825 at the end of last school year to 740 in September? What’s going on with that?

Did one of their feeder schools add level 4 AAP?

I’m not sure, I thought they all had LLIV apart from the two schools that go to Sangster instead of KMES for AAP. It did look like last years 6th grade class/this year’s 7th is pretty large, so maybe they just weren’t weren’t replaced by as many kids. But thats still a big drop off. Does anyone know if they had any de-staffing?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Membership numbers for September have been posted.

Will Thru adjust its proposals to reflect the latest numbers, or shouldn't it do so? If not, they should go ahead and release the revised maps now and not wait until Friday evening.

They really should take the new numbers into consideration. Lewis is now down to 1540 total. Taxpayers should not be funding any new additions until all capacity in the county is taken advantage of.

Lewis is a money pit dump that needs to just be closed. Full stop.

Making the signature program at a school one that focuses on left-wing advocacy (the "Lewis Leadership Program") was not a smart move. It was the pet project of Karen Keys Gamarra, who saddled Lewis with this program and then bailed on the School Board.

Should have been called Central Springfield HS also. Naming it Lewis was a complete joke.

Anonymous wrote:More importantly, look at the schools that are growing even in spite of the recent trend. Look at Coates and Oak Hill, both likely feeders to the new western HS. That is proof of where growth is coming now, and planning for it with the new school will look like a very good decision in the future (like the decision not to close Marshall HS in the past).

It doesn't account for all the growth, but Oak Hill did add FECEP this year. Also, it is an AAP center.

Anonymous wrote:More importantly, look at the schools that are growing even in spite of the recent trend. Look at Coates and Oak Hill, both likely feeders to the new western HS. That is proof of where growth is coming now, and planning for it with the new school will look like a very good decision in the future (like the decision not to close Marshall HS in the past).

Well, maybe. On the other hand, Herndon High went down from to 2074 this September from 2230 last September, so it now has 675 vacant seats.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.

The population trend is for fewer numbers of children. No, the population hasn’t peaked yet - but the number of children has. The highest birth rate was before the recession in 2007ish and it’s been all downhill from there with some additional peaks and valleys along the way, but nothing as high as the peak birth years. I don’t know why Fairfax county in particular would buck this trend.

Birth rates are going back up starting in 2022. We don't have to reach the 2007 peak to still be increasing in numbers.

Birth rates are almost to 2016 levels, which is much lower than the pre recession peak 2007-2009 birth rates of our current juniors and seniors.

The number of FCPS students will decrease dramatically once the current high school students, the very last of the post 9-11 Baby Boom graduates.

Temporarily, and then after the dip following the peak works its way through the numbers will start going up again. The decrease is just a reversion to the mean rate of increase. We ran hot for a bit so the numbers got inflated. It's not like the student population is about to start going down permanently.

No, look at the data.

It will go up from 2021-2025 births, but it will not match the post 9-11 Baby Boom

Again, growth doesn't have to match the post 9-11 baby boom rate to still be growth. After the numbers temporarily drop when that one bump of larger class sizes pass through we will still have growth again, just not at the peak rate from post 9-11.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Fairfax, Langley, and South Lakes (and TJ) are essentially flat. So only 6 HS saw a real increase. And it obviously wasn’t enough to offset the decreases at every other school.

Just curious, what if any inference would you draw from all this when it comes to the current boundary review? Are you saying the overall decline is big enough that they should put things on hold?

I mean the whole exercise seems silly now that they’re acquiring and making boundaries for a whole new high school … there are some places that need capacity relief, like Coates, but it seems like everything else can be left well enough alone at this point. And if we fast forward 10-20 years, we may be looking at needing to close or consolidate schools in some areas.

If you honestly believe there will be fewer people in Fairfax County in 10-20 years you are beyond hope of reason.

The population trend is for fewer numbers of children. No, the population hasn’t peaked yet - but the number of children has. The highest birth rate was before the recession in 2007ish and it’s been all downhill from there with some additional peaks and valleys along the way, but nothing as high as the peak birth years. I don’t know why Fairfax county in particular would buck this trend.

Birth rates are going back up starting in 2022. We don't have to reach the 2007 peak to still be increasing in numbers.

Birth rates are almost to 2016 levels, which is much lower than the pre recession peak 2007-2009 birth rates of our current juniors and seniors.

The number of FCPS students will decrease dramatically once the current high school students, the very last of the post 9-11 Baby Boom graduates.

Temporarily, and then after the dip following the peak works its way through the numbers will start going up again. The decrease is just a reversion to the mean rate of increase. We ran hot for a bit so the numbers got inflated. It's not like the student population is about to start going down permanently.

No, look at the data.

It will go up from 2021-2025 births, but it will not match the post 9-11 Baby Boom

More importantly, look at the schools that are growing even in spite of the recent trend. Look at Coates and Oak Hill, both likely feeders to the new western HS. That is proof of where growth is coming now, and planning for it with the new school will look like a very good decision in the future (like the decision not to close Marshall HS in the past).