Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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I tried to watch the Mark Halperin interview of Ann Selzer but gave up because right wingers suck as interviewers, but she was pretty clear about her methodology that, though they talked to all 1000 people they random dialed, they only poll likely voters, which was about 800 people. Who are the most reliable voters? Old ladies.

It was one poll, Harris probably isn’t winning Iowa and the maga pps are still losing their minds over this.

Halperin is not a right winger.

He has a history of racism and sexual harassment so I think he fits in perfectly in the right wing

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I tried to watch the Mark Halperin interview of Ann Selzer but gave up because right wingers suck as interviewers, but she was pretty clear about her methodology that, though they talked to all 1000 people they random dialed, they only poll likely voters, which was about 800 people. Who are the most reliable voters? Old ladies.

It was one poll, Harris probably isn’t winning Iowa and the maga pps are still losing their minds over this.

Halperin is not a right winger.

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Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.

The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.

I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.

There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.

I don’t know ANY

Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.

Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.

I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.

+1 and immigration

Anyone invested in the market is much better off now than under Trump. If that isn’t you, you might want to reconsider your investment strategies.

The dollar weakened on Monday after the Iowa poll came out. Think about that and what it says about what Wall Street investors think would happen in a Harris presidency.

Anonymous wrote:Anyone who is voting for Trump because of the “economy” is just a liar or so moronic that they are detached from reality.

All of Trump’s policies will literally stoke inflation overnight. It will explode the deficit 2.5x higher than Harris’s budget. It will lead to a big decline in the stock market aside from a handful of favored companies he corruptly exempts from tariffs.

If you’re still saying economy for Trump, you’re either stupid or a con artist.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Anyone who is voting for Trump because of the “economy” is just a liar or so moronic that they are detached from reality.

All of Trump’s policies will literally stoke inflation overnight. It will explode the deficit 2.5x higher than Harris’s budget. It will lead to a big decline in the stock market aside from a handful of favored companies he corruptly exempts from tariffs.

If you’re still saying economy for Trump, you’re either stupid or a con artist.

You were probably one of those insisting that the inflation reduction act would actually reduce inflation. Or that Biden’s infrastructure spending wouldn’t make inflation worse. We see you.

Anonymous wrote:Anyone who is voting for Trump because of the “economy” is just a liar or so moronic that they are detached from reality.

All of Trump’s policies will literally stoke inflation overnight. It will explode the deficit 2.5x higher than Harris’s budget. It will lead to a big decline in the stock market aside from a handful of favored companies he corruptly exempts from tariffs.

If you’re still saying economy for Trump, you’re either stupid or a con artist.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.

The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.

I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.

There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.

I don’t know ANY

Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.

Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.

I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.

+1 and immigration

Anyone invested in the market is much better off now than under Trump. If that isn’t you, you might want to reconsider your investment strategies.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.

The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.

I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.

There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.

Trump is bad for all the other issues women care about as well. Educated women know Trump is an incompetent idiot. A lot of men know it too but they are too invested in Republican Party patronage to break with Trump.

Agree to disagree. Educated women can and often do reach different conclusions.

They demonstrably don't. Unless you meant uneducated women can and often do reach different conclusions. Educated voters have been breaking towards Democrats for the past few cycles now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.

The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.

I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.

There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.

Trump is bad for all the other issues women care about as well. Educated women know Trump is an incompetent idiot. A lot of men know it too but they are too invested in Republican Party patronage to break with Trump.

Agree to disagree. Educated women can and often do reach different conclusions.

They demonstrably don't. Unless you meant uneducated women can and often do reach different conclusions. Educated voters have been breaking towards Democrats for the past few cycles now.

Unless you have data supporting the claim that 100% of “educated” women vote Democrat, sit down.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.

The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.

I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.

There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.

I don’t know ANY

Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.

Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.

I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.

+1 and immigration

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I tried to watch the Mark Halperin interview of Ann Selzer but gave up because right wingers suck as interviewers, but she was pretty clear about her methodology that, though they talked to all 1000 people they random dialed, they only poll likely voters, which was about 800 people. Who are the most reliable voters? Old ladies.

It was one poll, Harris probably isn’t winning Iowa and the maga pps are still losing their minds over this.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.

The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.

I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.

There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.

Trump is bad for all the other issues women care about as well. Educated women know Trump is an incompetent idiot. A lot of men know it too but they are too invested in Republican Party patronage to break with Trump.

Agree to disagree. Educated women can and often do reach different conclusions.

They demonstrably don't. Unless you meant uneducated women can and often do reach different conclusions. Educated voters have been breaking towards Democrats for the past few cycles now.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts

Statewide, voters virtually tie in preference for a Democrat or a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.

By a 16-point margin, likely Iowa voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan and Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks are competing.

By a 7-point advantage, likely voters prefer a Democrat over a Republican in the 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/03/iowa-poll-democrats-preferred-over-republicans-congress-nunn-baccam-miller-meeks-bohannan-hinson/75988058007/

I did a lot of organizing and canvassing in Iowa in 2020, and we just barely eked out a Democratic victory in only one of the four congressional districts.

If the above is true, this is an enormous shift in 4 years. Huge.

More likely that is evidence this is a bad poll. The newspaper is not releasing the crosstabs.
Incumbents without scandal don't lose by these big margins. In 2022, the biggest was 8, by someone who was hurt by redistricting.

But this incumbent is a rubber stamp for the dysfunctional do-nothing GOP House, in a district that is only R+3, is mostly urban (to the extent that Davenport and Iowa City are urban), and may prefer a representative who believes that the government should function competently. This seat had flipped back and forth in four consecutive elections before 2022 when it was redrawn.

Flipping is plausible. D+16 is not.

You might think so, but there could be a big shift among women in these cities. There appears to be a snowball effect among older women and college women, as there was in other cities and suburbs in 2018 and 2020. The release of the poll may actually contribute to it.

The assumption that other women feel the same way you do is very 2016.

I’m telling you what happens in realignment elections. This is a realignment election. A bunch of “safe” House districts shifted 20%+ in 1994 and 2006 and 2010 and 2018. It’s more common in mid-terms but Trump is gifting Democrats a potential landslide of women voters this year.

There are too many women who feel that there are issues more important than abortion.

Honestly, if you truly believe in the influence of women voters, which you should, then you would recognize that they have already expressed their views. We are not where we are today solely because of male voters.

I don’t know ANY

Because you surely are familiar with the political views of women across the nation. This idea is exactly why you’re wrong.

Sure lots of issues, but none as big as reproductive rights.

I would bet the economy drives more votes than reproductive rights.

Anonymous wrote:DP. You're right. Educated women are not dumb because they vote for Trump. Agreed.

They're morally bankrupt.