Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

It's just going to get worse for Trump. He's doing absolutely nothing to pull in voters. In fact, he's actively pushing away moderates/independents with his behavior and/or outright telling them they're not welcome in the MAGA tent. And he's becoming increasingly unhinged and incoherent, which will make matters for him worse. There's a big segment of Haley/DeSantis voters who will just sit out.

Trump seems pretty lazy this time. Is he even campaigning? Biden at least has a full-time job.

Trump has held two campaign events since Super Tuesday which was a month ago.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

It's just going to get worse for Trump. He's doing absolutely nothing to pull in voters. In fact, he's actively pushing away moderates/independents with his behavior and/or outright telling them they're not welcome in the MAGA tent. And he's becoming increasingly unhinged and incoherent, which will make matters for him worse. There's a big segment of Haley/DeSantis voters who will just sit out.

Trump seems pretty lazy this time. Is he even campaigning? Biden at least has a full-time job.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

It's just going to get worse for Trump. He's doing absolutely nothing to pull in voters. In fact, he's actively pushing away moderates/independents with his behavior and/or outright telling them they're not welcome in the MAGA tent. And he's becoming increasingly unhinged and incoherent, which will make matters for him worse. There's a big segment of Haley/DeSantis voters who will just sit out.

Trump seems pretty lazy this time. Is he even campaigning? Biden at least has a full-time job.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

It's just going to get worse for Trump. He's doing absolutely nothing to pull in voters. In fact, he's actively pushing away moderates/independents with his behavior and/or outright telling them they're not welcome in the MAGA tent. And he's becoming increasingly unhinged and incoherent, which will make matters for him worse. There's a big segment of Haley/DeSantis voters who will just sit out.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Normal people are just starting to tune in. It’s going to keep getting worse for Trump as more and more of them realize he’s the nominee yet again. People hate him.

Anonymous wrote:

yeah we're going to have an a/b test here in real time

Anonymous wrote:Pollsters are having a really hard time figuring out the accurate sample for who actually shows up to vote on Election Day. Especially post-Roe, where Democrats are over-performing the polls by 5-15 points on Election Day, even in deeply red districts.

In short, pollsters - due their PTSD from 2016 where they were so off the mark - are oversampling Republicans and Trump supporters in particular.

Good read on the issue:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-can-election-2024-polls-really-tell-us/

I think this is particular is the crux of the issue:

[i]
We face a momentous presidential election year in 2024, with polling caught in a feedback loop: Response rates—a measure of how many participate in a poll—are declining. Declining response rates lead to a greater likelihood of polling error, which in turn leads to greater mistrust in polls. Mistrust in polls leads to even lower response rates. And the cycle continues.
....
Third, election polls have a unique characteristic not encountered in any other survey: they survey a population that does not (yet) exist. Election pollsters must predict who will actually vote. Their likely-voter models tend to be 80 percent accurate, leaving quite a bit of imprecision in deciding who among those polled should actually count in a “horse race” estimate.

More and more people are declining to answer polls, so pollsters have more difficulty achieving a representative sample of the voting age population. Those who do answer polls tend to probably fit into certain demographic buckets that have time to answer the phone and speak with a random person (older, poorer, unemployed). Sorry, but I think you're a rube and a sucker if you sit on the phone and answer a political poll. It's the same naïve people who talk to scammers in Africa or Asia.

[i]
We face a momentous presidential election year in 2024, with polling caught in a feedback loop: Response rates—a measure of how many participate in a poll—are declining. Declining response rates lead to a greater likelihood of polling error, which in turn leads to greater mistrust in polls. Mistrust in polls leads to even lower response rates. And the cycle continues.
....
Third, election polls have a unique characteristic not encountered in any other survey: they survey a population that does not (yet) exist. Election pollsters must predict who will actually vote. Their likely-voter models tend to be 80 percent accurate, leaving quite a bit of imprecision in deciding who among those polled should actually count in a “horse race” estimate.

Anonymous wrote: