Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Granted, I’m a little behind but just listened to a Frontline podcast with Julia Ioffe. She feels that Putin’s inner circle circle has shrunk to only a few advisors who may be crazier than Putin is. She feels he will not stop until he has ground Ukraine “to a fine dust”.

His inner circle has been shrinking for several years, and he has always had advisors who are crazier than him.

I think it's long past time that we stopped calling them crazy. They're just stupid. Crazy gives them too much credit. They're actually thinking this through and planning these fiascos. It's all been intentional. They're just stupid.

I don't think Putin is crazy. Just watch some of his interviews, such as this one a few years ago with Charlie Rose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l69tRETnlo&t=2388s

He is alert, focused, and logical, and seems more on-the-ball than many of our own leaders.

I think his reasoning approach with respect to Ukraine is as follows:

1. He doesn't believe that NATO is purely a defensive organization. He thinks that NATO -- or the United States -- would like to topple his regime. He has seen the United States topple regimes in several countries, he believes that we may have played a hand in the 2014 revolution in Ukraine.

2. He recognizes that Ukraine is rapidly coming under the influence of the West, both economically and militarily. On Nov 10, 2021, the US and Ukraine signed a strategic partnership that will increase the flow of military support to Ukraine.

3. On the current trajectory, Putin believes that Ukraine will indeed become part of NATO, perhaps 5 to 10 years down the road.

4. Based on points 1, 2 and 3, Putin feels backed into a corner. Unless he does something, Russia will soon be encircled by NATO countries.

5. Given that Ukraine has been improving its military with help from the West, Putin feels that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing for Russia to push back against NATO, and ensure that Ukraine remains outside of NATO.

6. Based on all of the facts/assumptions above, he decided that an invasion was necessary for his regime's long-term survival. He views this invasion as a form of pro-active defense, as opposed to a purely offensive move designed solely to expand Russia's territory. I doubt he wants to absorb Ukraine into Russia; rather, he simply wants to make sure it remains outside of NATO's grasp.

Of course, I'm speculating. None of us can read Putin's mind. But in his interviews he is always quite lucid and calm -- never emotion -- always under control. And time and time again he has stressed that the Russian government views Ukraine's potential accession into NATO as a red line. Russia cannot accept NATO membership for Ukraine. They view this accession as a security risk, recognizing that many "defensive" weapon systems can also be used for offense.

I don't think we are dealing with a mad-man. I think we are dealing with somebody who truly believes (rightly or wrongly) that Russia's long-term survival is at stake, and is willing to do whatever is necessary to keep NATO's paws off of Ukraine.

Yes, this is a spot-on summary of Putin’s mentality. Kudos!

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If we get more involved per Zelensky's request this morning -- do we really think Putin will use the nuclear option? Is he really that crazy?

Not a chance.

We don’t just watch US media in our house. We monitor international news from Europe (in German).

While sensationalist US news sources reported Putin recently put Russian nuclear forces on alert, the US sources failed to explain the meaning of that alert.

European news explained the relevant alert system goes from 0 to 5. Putin elevated it from 0 to 1. Moreover, that move cost Putin virtually nothing in Rubles/dollars, but it certainly had value as a threat against Western intervention. It was essentially a cost-free bluff. It is meaningless.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.


Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

No. The Rs might not like the "green deal", but parts of it are going to be coming more quickly now. Warp speed on it. Just like the vaccine. It's a matter of national security and defense.

What is needed is what will not happen: a grand compromise. Let's do much of the green deal in terms of wind, solar, etc. The let's get Keystone back on line, encourage drilling, sell new leases. We need alternative sources of energy and oil and gas and we need both now. There is a deal here a Reagan could have done in the name of national security. But I see no prospects for it.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
There have been reports from Macron and others who have known Putin for years that he is acting unusually. He seems more delusional and more paranoid and less in touch with reality than he was 2 years ago. (The video that you posted in from 2015, so not indicative of his present state of mind.)

Those that have interacted with him recently think he's a nutter.


Macron is an idiot boy who thinks he's king maker. He's so far out of his league and isn't even aware of it. Anyone who has followed Putin knows he is the same ruthless autocrat as ever. He's been methodically marching toward this for years. First Chechnya, then Crimea, Syria, Ukraine. So far no one has stopped him, in fact thought they could "work with him." And he's proving his theory right now that US & NATO are too weak/scared to intervene. He may not "take Ukraine" but he will flatten it and Germany will buy continue to buy Russian gas and US companies will continue to do business there.

No. The Rs might not like the "green deal", but parts of it are going to be coming more quickly now. Warp speed on it. Just like the vaccine. It's a matter of national security and defense.

Anonymous wrote:If we get more involved per Zelensky's request this morning -- do we really think Putin will use the nuclear option? Is he really that crazy?

Anonymous wrote:Since NATO countries can’t support Ukraine, is it possible to temporarily assign our military and planes to be under Ukraine command? We can call them volunteers to avoid escalating with Russia so the war doesn’t expand but at the same time secure victory for Ukraine.