Anonymous
12/04/2018 15:05
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Neither party would ever admit this publicly, but in the foreseeable future, the winners of all presidential elections will likely be determined by how they do in the somewhere between six and twelve "tipping point" states and those are really the only ones that matter.
That has been the case for decades.
When was the last time that our largest state, California, mattered?
Anonymous
12/04/2018 15:04
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It doesn't have to be 16-18 million throughout the country so long as you can get enough voters in Detroit (13K), Milwaukee (27K), Philadelphia (68K), Miami (114K), or Charlotte and Raleigh (177K) to overturn Trump's parenthetical margins of victory in those states.
You are trying to win next war based on last one's metrics.
Not the best recipe.
Why not? It sounds like you think there are no lessons learned from 2016 re: urban turnout in MI, WI, PA, FL, and NC.
+1 Democrats have learned a ton since 2016 (witness the Blue Wave in 2018 of 40+ House Members). The silver lining of having Trump as POTUS is the strengthening of the Democratic party for the next generation.
Remember that Dems lost 69 seats in Congress in 2010...and yet Obama won in 2012.
Obama's approval levels were far higher than that of Trump who is about as popular as cholera.
Choose to delude yourself all you want....
According to 538 stats website, 684 days into the Presidency (today), Obama's approval rate was 46%.
Trump's is 42.2%.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 15:01
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Neither party would ever admit this publicly, but in the foreseeable future, the winners of all presidential elections will likely be determined by how they do in the somewhere between six and twelve "tipping point" states and those are really the only ones that matter.
most people who know anything about politics will admit that the swing states are the key to the elections
but I think the imbalance in the electoral college has to be addressed at some point. we have now had 2 elections in less than 20 years where the EC winner was NOT the popular vote winner. And this last one was such a large margin. The tyranny of the MINORITY situation this is creating is going to break us sooner rather than later.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 14:57
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Neither party would ever admit this publicly, but in the foreseeable future, the winners of all presidential elections will likely be determined by how they do in the somewhere between six and twelve "tipping point" states and those are really the only ones that matter.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 14:40
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It doesn't have to be 16-18 million throughout the country so long as you can get enough voters in Detroit (13K), Milwaukee (27K), Philadelphia (68K), Miami (114K), or Charlotte and Raleigh (177K) to overturn Trump's parenthetical margins of victory in those states.
You are trying to win next war based on last one's metrics.
Not the best recipe.
Why not? It sounds like you think there are no lessons learned from 2016 re: urban turnout in MI, WI, PA, FL, and NC.
+1 Democrats have learned a ton since 2016 (witness the Blue Wave in 2018 of 40+ House Members). The silver lining of having Trump as POTUS is the strengthening of the Democratic party for the next generation.
Remember that Dems lost 69 seats in Congress in 2010...and yet Obama won in 2012.
Obama's approval levels were far higher than that of Trump who is about as popular as cholera.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 14:38
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It doesn't have to be 16-18 million throughout the country so long as you can get enough voters in Detroit (13K), Milwaukee (27K), Philadelphia (68K), Miami (114K), or Charlotte and Raleigh (177K) to overturn Trump's parenthetical margins of victory in those states.
You are trying to win next war based on last one's metrics.
Not the best recipe.
Why not? It sounds like you think there are no lessons learned from 2016 re: urban turnout in MI, WI, PA, FL, and NC.
+1 Democrats have learned a ton since 2016 (witness the Blue Wave in 2018 of 40+ House Members). The silver lining of having Trump as POTUS is the strengthening of the Democratic party for the next generation.
Remember that Dems lost 69 seats in Congress in 2010...and yet Obama won in 2012.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 14:18
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It doesn't have to be 16-18 million throughout the country so long as you can get enough voters in Detroit (13K), Milwaukee (27K), Philadelphia (68K), Miami (114K), or Charlotte and Raleigh (177K) to overturn Trump's parenthetical margins of victory in those states.
You are trying to win next war based on last one's metrics.
Not the best recipe.
Why not? It sounds like you think there are no lessons learned from 2016 re: urban turnout in MI, WI, PA, FL, and NC.
+1 Democrats have learned a ton since 2016 (witness the Blue Wave in 2018 of 40+ House Members). The silver lining of having Trump as POTUS is the strengthening of the Democratic party for the next generation.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 13:17
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It doesn't have to be 16-18 million throughout the country so long as you can get enough voters in Detroit (13K), Milwaukee (27K), Philadelphia (68K), Miami (114K), or Charlotte and Raleigh (177K) to overturn Trump's parenthetical margins of victory in those states.
You are trying to win next war based on last one's metrics.
Not the best recipe.
Why not? It sounds like you think there are no lessons learned from 2016 re: urban turnout in MI, WI, PA, FL, and NC.
certain states are a lost damn cause? Others are not?
Which is why this swing state urban strategy is likely a good one.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 13:15
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:It doesn't have to be 16-18 million throughout the country so long as you can get enough voters in Detroit (13K), Milwaukee (27K), Philadelphia (68K), Miami (114K), or Charlotte and Raleigh (177K) to overturn Trump's parenthetical margins of victory in those states.
You are trying to win next war based on last one's metrics.
Not the best recipe.
Why not? It sounds like you think there are no lessons learned from 2016 re: urban turnout in MI, WI, PA, FL, and NC.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 13:11
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:
However, as I've been preaching again and again - the only way to change a nation is through education. And we haven't exactly been successful in our past efforts.
In the words of TJ, "An educated citizenry is a vital requisite for our survival as a free people."
some are just resistant to being educated. which is a huge part of the problem.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 13:09
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:It doesn't have to be 16-18 million throughout the country so long as you can get enough voters in Detroit (13K), Milwaukee (27K), Philadelphia (68K), Miami (114K), or Charlotte and Raleigh (177K) to overturn Trump's parenthetical margins of victory in those states.
You are trying to win next war based on last one's metrics.
Not the best recipe.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 12:59
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:Again, what exactly are we supposed to do, then? Just sit back and watch these assholes destroy our system of government because people who aren't paying attention think we are "too angry" or "too aggressive" or whatever bullshit you are trying to tell us?
I honestly don't understand wtf you are trying to tell us. If it's to sit down and shut up, too bad - not happening.
I took my anger and directed it toward campaigning for candidates here in VA. I've gotten involved in the local party. Guess what? The candidates I knocked doors for and gave money to won. And I will continue to do so. WHILE remaining angry about every horrible thing this administration and the complicit republicans in congress and in the states visit on us/this country.
Complacency is what got us into this gigantic clustf@#$. I will not sit back like a good little girl and watch evil people ruin our country. If people are too lazy and/or stupid to realize what is happening right there in plain sight, I don't care what they think of me personally.
I personally don't believe anything will work. This is like the flu. It has to run its course. Sometimes the flu is a killer, however.
But PP, get out there and work your ass off. I applaud you.
However, as I've been preaching again and again - the only way to change a nation is through education. And we haven't exactly been successful in our past efforts.
In the words of TJ, "An educated citizenry is a vital requisite for our survival as a free people."
Anonymous
12/04/2018 12:50
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Michael Bennet (Jewish Senator from co) looking to run.
Heh - he has no shot.
Heh - he has no shot.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 12:48
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
On top of the turnout issue, now having D governors in Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina could help incrementally in 2020 vs. 2016 re: mitigating voter suppression.
Anonymous
12/04/2018 12:41
Subject: Which Dem can win general election in 2020?
Anonymous wrote:It doesn't have to be 16-18 million throughout the country so long as you can get enough voters in Detroit (13K), Milwaukee (27K), Philadelphia (68K), Miami (114K), or Charlotte and Raleigh (177K) to overturn Trump's parenthetical margins of victory in those states.
you're right. focus on turning out those voters, and we're golden.
every damn vote counts.