Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost half of foreign policy experts believe Russia, in its current form, will collapse within the next 10 years. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2033/

Foreign policy experts seem to tip-toe around the fate of Ukraine or present the rosiest picture. Will there even be a Ukraine in 10 years? Look at their demographics. They have 4X as many 40 year olds as 20 year olds. Their TFR is hovering around 1, and they lost 10 million+ refugees.

The Poles are openly talking about occupying Galicia and passing around maps of historic Polish borders, that include large chunks of what is now the Ukraine.

So foreign policy experts, what is the fate of Ukraine? Rump state? Divided up between Russia and Poland? Repopulated with people from elsewhere in the world?

Not a foreign policy expert.

Both Russia and Ukraine both have a birth rate under 2.

The size of Ukraine is 603,700 sq km (233,100 sq mi) and the size of Russia is 17,098,242 sq km (6,601,665 sq mi).

The population of Ukraine in 2021 is 43.79 million and the population of Russia in 2021 is 143.4 million.

That means there are 72.5 Ukrainians per square mile and 8.4 Russians per square mile.

It is estimated that there are at least 5:1 losses between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine is increasing their Order of Battle in state-of-the-art weaponry while Russia is decreasing their Order of Battle in state-of-the-art weaponry.

While the Polish and Ukrainian relationship is complex, it can be worked out diplomatically, whereas the Polish and Russian relationship is beyond all hope.

Who is in deeper trouble?

The country's birth rates have been in decline since 1994 when Russia was estimated to have 149 million citizens. By the start of 2022, its population was estimated to be 145,6 million, with 3,358 births a day being more than cancelled out by a daily death rate of 3,663, according to Statistica.

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

Because Russia changed that eight-year status quo with its invasion of the rest of Ukraine. Russia had most of Donbas and Crimea. And the West had let it slide without significant consequences - all of them; Obama, Trump, Merkel, Macron, Boris Johnson, Trudeau. If Russia hadn't invaded and sought to take Kyiv, the capital, they'd be doing just fine. Some skirmishing in Donbas. Some minor sanctions. But otherwise Russia would still get its oil revenue, most of Donbas would more or less be incorporated into Russia, and they'd hold on to a nice warm weather port on the Black Sea for its navy and Russian vacationers. 2014 was a total win for Russia. If Russians were smart, they would have enjoyed their victory and that would be that.

Instead, Russians made a colossal mistake by invading the rest of Ukraine. And Ukrainians fought back, destroying its Spetsnaz, paratroopers, and much of the initial armor in the first weeks. Absolutely legendary. But one year later the war has settled into a kind of stalemate. And it's not remotely sustainable. So far, in one year, somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died. The civilian casualties are unknowable until there's an accounting of what happened in Mariupol, but it's well into the thousands. For comparison, the US lost 58,000 soldiers in Vietnam over twenty years. The war Russia launched against Ukraine cannot settle into a stalemate. The costs in human lives have been too large. There will be a winner and a loser. Because there is no alternative.

So far, the Biden administration and its NATO allies have navigated this pretty well. Freedom and self-determination on one side. Imperialism and genocide on the other. But no one wanst American or NATO soldiers fighting in Ukraine. So it's a thread the needle situation. This is a problem without an easy solution.

Think the real fear is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine becomes an assassination of Archduke Ferdinand situation. The Law of Unintended Consequences looms large here..

The Spring offensive will collapse what is left of the Russian army.

I'd like to think so. I follow this pretty closely. But I am not so sanguine. Russian artillery is for real.

But Russian men seem to be fine with dying. They are like atheist ISIS. I don't mean this unkindly, but Russian men are genuine weirdos. Take a gander at the 18 + Ukraine war stuff on certain popular websites

It is horrible.

As I always tell the youngsters, don't fight crazy. But Russians are like the crackheads of the world. Bit of a problem

Slavic men and women as a whole are weirdos

Let’s be 100% honest

If you’ve spent any time out east, you know this regardless of their personal politics that it is a totally different civilization post church split.

this is why biden’s policy is the best. He’s optimally letting both sides grind each other down

Am half-Slavic. Used to live in that part of the world. Please don't equate Russians with Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, and Ukrainians. You genuinely don't know what you're talking about. Very much not the same.

DP but it’s funny. It’s what other Slavs like to think but they are all children of the communism. Some a little more than others but essentially the same. But whatever makes you feel better

Fair enough. Communism was a cancerous distortion for every Eastern and Central European country. But that was thirty years ago. Always have to ask - who are the baddies today? There are solid reason why Poles and Czechs don't care for Russia. And there really isn't any cultural affinity - Austro-Hungarian Empire, Catholicism, 1968, Solidarity etc etc. Trust me, no one hates Russians more than the people who have been invaded by Russians

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do people forget that Russia and Ukraine were in an effective stalemate for eight years prior to this escalation? I see no reason why this can't last the next decade or two.

Because Russia changed that eight-year status quo with its invasion of the rest of Ukraine. Russia had most of Donbas and Crimea. And the West had let it slide without significant consequences - all of them; Obama, Trump, Merkel, Macron, Boris Johnson, Trudeau. If Russia hadn't invaded and sought to take Kyiv, the capital, they'd be doing just fine. Some skirmishing in Donbas. Some minor sanctions. But otherwise Russia would still get its oil revenue, most of Donbas would more or less be incorporated into Russia, and they'd hold on to a nice warm weather port on the Black Sea for its navy and Russian vacationers. 2014 was a total win for Russia. If Russians were smart, they would have enjoyed their victory and that would be that.

Instead, Russians made a colossal mistake by invading the rest of Ukraine. And Ukrainians fought back, destroying its Spetsnaz, paratroopers, and much of the initial armor in the first weeks. Absolutely legendary. But one year later the war has settled into a kind of stalemate. And it's not remotely sustainable. So far, in one year, somewhere between 250,000 and 400,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died. The civilian casualties are unknowable until there's an accounting of what happened in Mariupol, but it's well into the thousands. For comparison, the US lost 58,000 soldiers in Vietnam over twenty years. The war Russia launched against Ukraine cannot settle into a stalemate. The costs in human lives have been too large. There will be a winner and a loser. Because there is no alternative.

So far, the Biden administration and its NATO allies have navigated this pretty well. Freedom and self-determination on one side. Imperialism and genocide on the other. But no one wanst American or NATO soldiers fighting in Ukraine. So it's a thread the needle situation. This is a problem without an easy solution.

Think the real fear is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine becomes an assassination of Archduke Ferdinand situation. The Law of Unintended Consequences looms large here..

The Spring offensive will collapse what is left of the Russian army.

I'd like to think so. I follow this pretty closely. But I am not so sanguine. Russian artillery is for real.

But Russian men seem to be fine with dying. They are like atheist ISIS. I don't mean this unkindly, but Russian men are genuine weirdos. Take a gander at the 18 + Ukraine war stuff on certain popular websites

It is horrible.

As I always tell the youngsters, don't fight crazy. But Russians are like the crackheads of the world. Bit of a problem

Slavic men and women as a whole are weirdos

Let’s be 100% honest

If you’ve spent any time out east, you know this regardless of their personal politics that it is a totally different civilization post church split.

this is why biden’s policy is the best. He’s optimally letting both sides grind each other down

Am half-Slavic. Used to live in that part of the world. Please don't equate Russians with Czechs, Slovaks, Poles, and Ukrainians. You genuinely don't know what you're talking about. Very much not the same.

DP but it’s funny. It’s what other Slavs like to think but they are all children of the communism. Some a little more than others but essentially the same. But whatever makes you feel better

Pp half slav made my point

It’s also way more than just “children of communism”….goes back much further than that

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Still laughing about how Putin managed to get Finland to join NATO, vastly increasing the amount of border Russia now has with NATO nations.

Some master strategist he is.

Finland was a virtual vassal state of NATO since 1994 and now it is an official vassal state. The only thing that really changed is the dropping of pretenses.

The biggest pretense here is you actually pretending the relationship actually has any equivalence to "vassal state." Russian propaganda channels have totally oversold on that nonsense,

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Still laughing about how Putin managed to get Finland to join NATO, vastly increasing the amount of border Russia now has with NATO nations.

Some master strategist he is.

Finland was a virtual vassal state of NATO since 1994 and now it is an official vassal state. The only thing that really changed is the dropping of pretenses.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost half of foreign policy experts believe Russia, in its current form, will collapse within the next 10 years. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2033/

Foreign policy experts seem to tip-toe around the fate of Ukraine or present the rosiest picture. Will there even be a Ukraine in 10 years? Look at their demographics. They have 4X as many 40 year olds as 20 year olds. Their TFR is hovering around 1, and they lost 10 million+ refugees.

The Poles are openly talking about occupying Galicia and passing around maps of historic Polish borders, that include large chunks of what is now the Ukraine.

So foreign policy experts, what is the fate of Ukraine? Rump state? Divided up between Russia and Poland? Repopulated with people from elsewhere in the world?

Not a foreign policy expert.

Both Russia and Ukraine both have a birth rate under 2.

The size of Ukraine is 603,700 sq km (233,100 sq mi) and the size of Russia is 17,098,242 sq km (6,601,665 sq mi).

The population of Ukraine in 2021 is 43.79 million and the population of Russia in 2021 is 143.4 million.

That means there are 72.5 Ukrainians per square mile and 8.4 Russians per square mile.

It is estimated that there are at least 5:1 losses between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukraine is increasing their Order of Battle in state-of-the-art weaponry while Russia is decreasing their Order of Battle in state-of-the-art weaponry.

While the Polish and Ukrainian relationship is complex, it can be worked out diplomatically, whereas the Polish and Russian relationship is beyond all hope.

Who is in deeper trouble?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Almost half of foreign policy experts believe Russia, in its current form, will collapse within the next 10 years. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2033/

Foreign policy experts seem to tip-toe around the fate of Ukraine or present the rosiest picture. Will there even be a Ukraine in 10 years? Look at their demographics. They have 4X as many 40 year olds as 20 year olds. Their TFR is hovering around 1, and they lost 10 million+ refugees.

The Poles are openly talking about occupying Galicia and passing around maps of historic Polish borders, that include large chunks of what is now the Ukraine.

So foreign policy experts, what is the fate of Ukraine? Rump state? Divided up between Russia and Poland? Repopulated with people from elsewhere in the world?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Still laughing about how Putin managed to get Finland to join NATO, vastly increasing the amount of border Russia now has with NATO nations.

Some master strategist he is.

Finland was a virtual vassal state of NATO since 1994 and now it is an official vassal state. The only thing that really changed is the dropping of pretenses.

Anonymous wrote:Still laughing about how Putin managed to get Finland to join NATO, vastly increasing the amount of border Russia now has with NATO nations.

Some master strategist he is.

Anonymous wrote:Almost half of foreign policy experts believe Russia, in its current form, will collapse within the next 10 years. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/welcome-to-2033/