Anonymous wrote:Doesn’t this area have really good vaccination rates?

ABC News recently published a map where you can search the measles risk (based on vaccination rates) for your zip code: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/new-map-shows-spot-measles-risk-level-zip/story?id=129179712.

In my DC zip code, only 70-79% of children ages 0-5 are vaccinated. East of the river, rates drop to less than 60% vaccinated in Ward 7 and 60-69% vaccinated in Ward 8. Children ride transit, attend daycares, and go to school all over, so these low rates are sufficient that we could get breakthrough infections in the vaccinated if we have a local outbreak of measles. The vaccination rates are lower than they should be, even in educated, affluent suburbs. Potomac, MD has an 80-84% vax rate. Not far away in zip code 20877, rates drop to 70-79%. In Fairfax, zip code 22041 has a rate of 60-69 percent for MMR in young children. Within 35-80 miles of DC in parts of Fauquier rates drop below 79 percent, and Rappahannock County, rates drop below 69 percent in a number of zip codes. On county-wide and state-wide measures, this region is doing better than some other parts of the country, but we have plenty of pockets with very low vaccination rates.

Anonymous wrote:Doesn’t this area have really good vaccination rates?

Probably. I work in a child care center though and each year more and more parents are choosing not to vaccinate their kids. They apply for a religious exemption and get approved by DC Health. So frustrating.

Heavens, “pro life” antivaxxers. If you don’t want your kids, just abort them. You think God doesn’t know what you’re up to?

Anonymous wrote:Does measles spread outside? Is it like COVID where being outside is safer?

It's airborne but more contagious than COVID. The air remains capable of transmitting the virus for 2-4 hours after the infected person has left the area. Good ventilation helps, but again, it's more contagious than COVID.

Vaccinated individuals are not at high risk. The problem is the vaccine failure rate (which means when cases get into the thousands, you start to see those cases break through), those who cannot get vaccinated, and whatever immune amnesia COVID has been fiddling with.

Does measles spread outside? Is it like COVID where being outside is safer?

Anonymous wrote:I feel bad for the infected kids who didn't choose to have incompetent morons for parents.

Same.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you're vaccinated, it shouldn't matter. If you're not, well, good luck.

The people who were vaccinated and only had passing exposure will be fine. But whoever was next to them taking in that overwhelming viral assault for several hours might want to keep a lookout for symptoms.

Wrong. Vaccines work. If you are vaccinated you are completely protected. If you can’t be vaccinated for a legitimate reason, the you rely on others to do it for you and that’s where the problem is.

They do except when they don’t. I was vaccinated with the MMR as a child. Tested for rubella in pregnancy—plenty of antibodies.

There was a measles outbreak in 2019 that prompted me to ask my PCP to check my titers. Sky-high rubella and mumps immunity—zero measles immunity. I got revaccinated. Hopefully it took.

Anonymous wrote:Someone traveled to the "March for Life" rally and exposed thousands of people, including a lot of children and babies.

Here's where they went:

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/health/multiple-measles-cases-confirmed-in-dc-check-potential-exposure-sites-and-dates/4056224/

Basilica of the National Shrine of the Immaculate Conception. Wednesday, Jan. 21 from 3:30 p.m. to 8 p.m.
National March for Life Rally and Concert. Friday, Jan. 23 from 11 a.m. 5 p.m.
Catholic University of America, Garvey Hall. Saturday, Jan. 24 from 12 p.m. to 3 p.m. and Sunday, Jan. 25 from 12 p.m. to 3 p.m.
Catholic University of America, Edward J. Pryzbyla University Center. Saturday, Jan. 24 from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m. and Sunday, Jan. 25 from 6 p.m. to 9 p.m.
Catholic University of America, St. Vincent de Paul Chapel. Sunday, Jan. 25 from 9 p.m. to 12 a.m.
Red Line train from Brookland - CUA transferring at Gallery Place - Chinatown to the Yellow Line train heading towards Huntington. Monday Jan. 26, 11:30 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport. Monday, Jan. 26, 12:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m.
Yellow Line train from Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport transferring at Gallery Place - Chinatown to the Red Line train heading towards Glenmont. Monday, Jan. 26, 8:30 p.m. to 11:30 p.m.
Red Line train from Brookland - CUA heading towards Shady Grove. Tuesday, Jan. 27 from 1:15 p.m. to 3:30 p.m.
Union Station Amtrak Concourse. Tuesday, Jan. 27, 1:30 p.m. to 6:30 p.m.
Amtrak Northeast Regional Train 176, Northbound from Washington Union Station. Tuesday, Jan. 27 from 4:30 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Children’s National Medical Center Emergency Department. Monday, Feb. 2, 11:15 a.m.-1:45 p.m.

had a close miss with one of these, ugh!

No no no no ... you see, measles was almost gone BEFORE the vaccine, which I think is true for reasons, and so the vaccine is irrelevant! The recent decreasing rates of vaccination are correlating with outbreaks like we haven't seen in decades because people who avoid sharp pointy things don't like to use modern plumbing, because they might get poked by a pipe or something. QED.

Anonymous wrote:
"March for Life Rally"

Oh the irony. MAHA morons at their most destructive.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Back in 2020-22 covid days people quickly stopped worrying or even being performative about not infecting others, including the elderly or immunocompromised.

People "needed to live their lives."
I privately wondered if it would have been different if it were children, not elders, at high risk.

Well, now we have measles. Yes, kids. Yes, babies. Yes, this time actually preventable with vaccines...but my freedoms!

Eventually measles exposure won't be reported. People will "live their lives."

Welcome to the 1950s. I remember them well. Got measles. Got glasses after.

I get your point but FYI three and under are high risk for covid. And babies one years old and younger are so high risk for the covid complications that their risk level is the same as people over 65.

Good to know. But apparently nobody cared if they even knew back then.

I was off by a decimal point, so I am rewriting the numbers and will ask Jeff to delete.

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Anonymous wrote:Doesn’t this area have really good vaccination rates?

Sure, and that's great. It's still an awful situation. We'll just have to see how it shakes out.

- The combined population of MD, VA, and DC is roughly 16 million.
- There is a combined measles vaccination rate of about 95%, among those eligible. It's based on the percentage of kindergartners who have had two doses, so the 95% is calculated on ~5 year olds, so it doesn't include infants, etc.
- So about 0.05*16 million, or about 800,000 people who could be vaccinated are estimated not to be vaccinated, or not fully vaccinated.
- Around 5.7% of the US population is under 5 years old. Let's call it 5%. That's another 800,000 not fully vaccinated.
- The failure rate for 2 doses of the MMR is (depending on your source) somewhere between 3% and something less than 1%. Let's just call it 1%. That's another 160,000.
- There are a lot more people now with waning immunities of various kinds, as COVID infections seem to be wiping out prior immunities, sometimes (much like measles infection does). And you have people on immunosuppressants, or high dose steroids, or with autoimmune deficiencies, etc. Call it another 1%, or 160,000.

When you add it all up, even with a really good vaccination rate, there's probably around 1.9 million people in MD, VA, and DC who are not fully protected against measles. That is EXACTLY why herd immunity is so important -- when a spark is lit and hits the right person, it dies out. But if it's the wrong person, or a series of wrong people, there is exponential growth. You just don't know for sure in advance.

The odds are still good for individuals -- it's when you look at big groups that the problems show. If 1/100 those who are vulnerable get sick [a bad case scenario], that's about [19,000] -- [because 1,900,000/100 is 19,000]. You would expect:

- 1 in 5 hospitalized, or around [3800] people
- 1 in 20 cases of pneumonia, or around [950] people

The worst complications tend to happen in children.
- 1 in 1000 children to get encephalitis (can come with seizures and lasting intellectual disability)
- 1 to 3 children in 1000 to die

If herd immunity holds, that won't happen. If the virus gets into large pockets of unvaccinated people such as were at the pro-life rally, and those people carry it widespread enough to overwhelm herd immunity, then there will be more of a problem.

vax rates - https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/track-measles-outbreak-cases-us-map-rcna198932
population by age - https://www.neilsberg.com/insights/united-states-population-by-age/
measles sequelae - https://www.cdc.gov/measles/signs-symptoms/index.html

"March for Life Rally"

Doesn’t this area have really good vaccination rates?

You generally don't start to feel sick until 7-14 days after the exposure. It takes another 3-5 days for the rash to appear, starting at the top of the head and travelling down the upper body.

It takes longer to identify the breakout. If, say, 5 people were initially infected, and some had mild symptoms only (because of some partial immunity), there is another 7-14 days of latency, and another 3-5 days before the telltale rash (if identified). We just don't know yet.

Unfortunately, people shed the virus for 3-4 days before symptoms appear, as it is replicating up.