Anonymous wrote:And in the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat:

I don’t think those numbers indicate what people think they do. The results are not much different that MTGs 2024 race if you sum up the votes by candidate party. The combined total share of votes for among all 3 democratic candidates is only 40.13%. The democratic candidate got 35.6% of the vote in 2024. So assuming all of these people vote for Dems in the runoff that is only a shift 9 points towards Dems. There is basically zero chance that a dem wins this congressional seat.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And in the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat:

These two go to a runoff election on April 7. And take a look at the voting in the most Hispanic areas:

Same reason Jasmine Crockett lost in TX, while Talarico ran up his totals in Hispanic counties. I absolutely called that one weeks ago and it wasn't even close.

Hispanic voters don't like to vote for....

Shawn Harris, the Democrat, is Black, but he’s a man.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:And in the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat:

These two go to a runoff election on April 7. And take a look at the voting in the most Hispanic areas:

Same reason Jasmine Crockett lost in TX, while Talarico ran up his totals in Hispanic counties. I absolutely called that one weeks ago and it wasn't even close.

Hispanic voters don't like to vote for....

Anonymous wrote:I'm loving the results. BUT, not to be debbie downer, the generic favorability ratings for Dems is still in the toilet.

I fear after Trump is finally exorcised, we won't do as well. HOW do Dems fix this? It's not their policies b/c those poll generally well.

That’s in large part due to Democrats’ frustration with the party as a whole over the past year; it doesn’t mean/hasn’t meant that Democrats aren’t voting for Democrats when given the chance.

I'm loving the results. BUT, not to be debbie downer, the generic favorability ratings for Dems is still in the toilet.

I fear after Trump is finally exorcised, we won't do as well. HOW do Dems fix this? It's not their policies b/c those poll generally well.

Anonymous wrote:Democrats win GOP seat in New Hampshire, notching 10th straight special election flip.

Boudman, a financial analyst, defeated Republican Dale Fincher, a Christian nonprofit speaker and investment firm founder, by a 52-48 margin to win Carroll County’s 7th District.

Donald Trump also carried the district, which includes the towns of Ossipee, Tuftonboro, and Wolfeboro, by a 54-45 margin.

Oopsie! https://open.substack.com/pub/thedownballot/p/breaking-democrats-win-gop-seat-in

Wow, that’s a stunning result. That whole area was a sea of Trump flags in 2016. Mitt Romney owns a lake house in Wolfeboro.

Anonymous wrote:And in the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat:

These two go to a runoff election on April 7. And take a look at the voting in the most Hispanic areas:

And in the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat:

Also yesterday: another flip, in the mayoral election in Boca Raton (Trump +13)

Democrats win GOP seat in New Hampshire, notching 10th straight special election flip.

Boudman, a financial analyst, defeated Republican Dale Fincher, a Christian nonprofit speaker and investment firm founder, by a 52-48 margin to win Carroll County’s 7th District.

Donald Trump also carried the district, which includes the towns of Ossipee, Tuftonboro, and Wolfeboro, by a 54-45 margin.

Oopsie! https://open.substack.com/pub/thedownballot/p/breaking-democrats-win-gop-seat-in

Less than a month before the statewide election for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat

And the conservative incumbent up for reelection in 2027 will resign instead of running again.

Democrat Alex Holladay has FLIPPED Arkansas State House Seat 70 in the State Legislature!

This is the 2nd red-to-blue State Legislative flip of the year!

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5763559-democratic-pickup-arkansas-house-race/

Holladay’s victory does not change control of the state’s lower legislative chamber, where Republicans have held a 80-19 majority. But the Democratic pickup could matter for appropriations bills, which require a 75-percent supermajority vote from both chambers. Gov. Sarah Huckabee tried to push this election off till June 9, which would have been after the fiscal session in April.

Anonymous wrote:—Democrats won HD94 by 63 points.
(Harris won it by 30 in 2024.)

—Democrats won HD42 by 35 points.
(Harris won it by 17 in 2024.)


Pennsylvania as noted above

Woot!