Anonymous
Post 09/04/2021 12:00     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'm sure the bubble is going to pop any minute now lol

https://www.redfin.com/county/1324/MD/Montgomery-County/housing-market

I know for me, I started looking at Montgomery because NoVa EXPLODED and I can’t afford to live here anymore. I bet there are a lot of people like me making compromises.


Good idea because you can get some value bargains in Bethesda and nearby. Market is soft compared to NoVA

There's a reason why. Hope you don't work in NoVA or DC.
Anonymous
Post 09/04/2021 09:27     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:I am not sure what the local housing market is going to do but many adjacent markets are dropping. I am in the house for a vacation property and am looking at a number of areas in MD and up the northeastern corridor. Steady reductions and staying on the market longer in many areas. Not at prepandemic levels yet.

Frederick is even hotter than MoCo lol. https://www.redfin.com/city/7735/MD/Frederick/housing-market

Anonymous
Post 09/04/2021 08:34     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
I am not sure what the local housing market is going to do but many adjacent markets are dropping. I am in the house for a vacation property and am looking at a number of areas in MD and up the northeastern corridor. Steady reductions and staying on the market longer in many areas. Not at prepandemic levels yet.
Anonymous
Post 09/04/2021 06:33     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I'm sure the bubble is going to pop any minute now lol

https://www.redfin.com/county/1324/MD/Montgomery-County/housing-market

I know for me, I started looking at Montgomery because NoVa EXPLODED and I can’t afford to live here anymore. I bet there are a lot of people like me making compromises.


Good idea because you can get some value bargains in Bethesda and nearby. Market is soft compared to NoVA
Anonymous
Post 09/04/2021 06:16     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:I'm sure the bubble is going to pop any minute now lol

https://www.redfin.com/county/1324/MD/Montgomery-County/housing-market

I know for me, I started looking at Montgomery because NoVa EXPLODED and I can’t afford to live here anymore. I bet there are a lot of people like me making compromises.
Anonymous
Post 09/03/2021 22:06     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
I'm sure the bubble is going to pop any minute now lol

https://www.redfin.com/county/1324/MD/Montgomery-County/housing-market
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 20:44     Subject: Re:I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:we live in a condo that no one wants to buy, in 20011

so it prob depends


We're looking, so post it here!


we're looking to sell our condo in a few months: we're at 1380 quincy st nw

unclear why 20011 condo isn't selling, this area is so hot, improving like crazy, and so easy in terms of walkability and transit.


There are so many new condos popping up- perhaps that's why.
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 19:12     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.


Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.


Thanks for chiming in, expert.

Life is way too short. Nobody in real life has the patience or is stupid enough to “wait it out.” If you have the money and good credit, you buy, period. God isn’t giving you back the year your family wasted in an inferior home in a less desirable area. And truth be told, nothing in a premier area is going down. Ever.
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 19:08     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:It has slowed that’s a fact. BUT I highly doubt enough to make it worth it to pay rent two or three years and then buy. Plus that your mortgage goes on another 2-3 years.

However, it does mean a little less bidding wars and a bit more inventory. No need to buy that house on top of belt way.


+1. It's been humorous reading all the bitter Nostradamuses on here for the last 10 years. The bubble was going to burst any minute, so they were super astute to patiently remain in their apartment or sh*tshack. lol

I mean have you seen what sh*shacks are going for these days? They’ve probably had the most price growth than any other housing in the area. My parents sold their house in the area that has a literal highway behind their backyard for an obscene profit this spring. I agree with you on buying being better than renting but I think trade up buyers should be very careful not to max out their budgets when inflation can seriously erode their wages.


The malcontents obviously don’t own a million dollar sh*tshack (teardown) in a ritzy enclave.
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 17:37     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:Definitely slower now. Some of it is due to the seasonality but the main reason is because people stopped the panic buying. I don’t see a crazy bidding war anymore.



Still happening in my neighborhood in Fairfax.
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 14:19     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.


Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.


Yes, IF our home value drops by 15% AND we have to or want to move sooner than expected AND a similar home becomes available for rent at the right price, then sure, you could make the argument we'd have been better off financially if we had remained renters. But there are exactly zero houses for rent right now in the school district we want for our DD, and we are so, so much happier in our house versus our cramped apartment. Like anything, there is uncertainty. Like, if the stock market crashes by 50% then yeah, I'd have been better off putting more money in bonds, but if I had been investing in bonds only for the past ten years I'd have lost out on a lot of gains. At some point you have to take a risk. Buying a house I love at a price I can afford is a risk I feel extremely comfortable having taken. You do you.


Nothing against buying a house you can afford. What I think many people did in the second half of 2020 and early part of this year is overpaying by a significant amount for their houses. They could have waited and not paid insane prices. If prices stay flat, they would be losing money if interest payments, maintenance, property taxes, insurance, etc are higher than rents.


Waited how long? I mean I think there are some people that really made dumb choices out of FOMO, but most just paid market prices and I have not seen those go down. I don't see them going down, I don't even see them staying completely flat.

DP. Plenty of data that homes have been sitting longer with more price reductions. Prices down relative to this time last year as well. The market isn’t going to implode but c’mon it obviously wasn’t a good idea to purchase a home at the same time everyone is fleeing condos and apartments because of covid.


Where are you getting that from?

All the price reductions I'm seeing are delusional people (like the one who decided to price their center unit townhouse on the main road the same as a end unit in the interior of the community that sold a couple of months ago). I'm seeing a lot of recent (as in last 7 days) sales at prices that are $50-$100k higher than what similar houses sold last year.


This, all the way. Things that are priced what I call "high but fair" are going right away. The stuff that is sitting is from delusional people who are doing things like putting up homes that need tons of work up for the same as what new or totally updated homes are going for...


What you're failing to mention is that these "delusional sellers" have gotten their listing or more just a few months ago.


I mean if you have a specific example share it. I'm talking about a townhouse facing a busy road that was initially listed at $600k, and has since been reduced. A similar house of the same model but an end unit not on the main road sold a few months ago for $600k (listed at $550k). And we saw the one that sold first, the seller was thrilled with the offer and wouldn't even give us until the next day to put our own offer in. It is delusional for the second seller to expect their crappily located house to sell for the same amount as a home in the interior of the community and an end unit. They would not have gotten $600k in the spring.
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 14:10     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.


Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.


Yes, IF our home value drops by 15% AND we have to or want to move sooner than expected AND a similar home becomes available for rent at the right price, then sure, you could make the argument we'd have been better off financially if we had remained renters. But there are exactly zero houses for rent right now in the school district we want for our DD, and we are so, so much happier in our house versus our cramped apartment. Like anything, there is uncertainty. Like, if the stock market crashes by 50% then yeah, I'd have been better off putting more money in bonds, but if I had been investing in bonds only for the past ten years I'd have lost out on a lot of gains. At some point you have to take a risk. Buying a house I love at a price I can afford is a risk I feel extremely comfortable having taken. You do you.


Nothing against buying a house you can afford. What I think many people did in the second half of 2020 and early part of this year is overpaying by a significant amount for their houses. They could have waited and not paid insane prices. If prices stay flat, they would be losing money if interest payments, maintenance, property taxes, insurance, etc are higher than rents.


Waited how long? I mean I think there are some people that really made dumb choices out of FOMO, but most just paid market prices and I have not seen those go down. I don't see them going down, I don't even see them staying completely flat.

DP. Plenty of data that homes have been sitting longer with more price reductions. Prices down relative to this time last year as well. The market isn’t going to implode but c’mon it obviously wasn’t a good idea to purchase a home at the same time everyone is fleeing condos and apartments because of covid.


Where are you getting that from?

All the price reductions I'm seeing are delusional people (like the one who decided to price their center unit townhouse on the main road the same as a end unit in the interior of the community that sold a couple of months ago). I'm seeing a lot of recent (as in last 7 days) sales at prices that are $50-$100k higher than what similar houses sold last year.


This, all the way. Things that are priced what I call "high but fair" are going right away. The stuff that is sitting is from delusional people who are doing things like putting up homes that need tons of work up for the same as what new or totally updated homes are going for...


What you're failing to mention is that these "delusional sellers" have gotten their listing or more just a few months ago.
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 14:09     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Price reductions are meaningless. We price homes based on recent sales so always lagging by 60-180 days.
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 14:06     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:People, just buy when you're ready to buy and buy something you like and can afford. There is no good way to time the market. We just bought at 2021 prices and if our home value drops by 15% tomorrow, no big deal. We are so happy with the house and plan to stay for a long time. Our home is a place to live, not an investment. With the crush of demand that will just keep snowballing I don't expect prices to drop though. They will probably be relatively flat in the near-term.


Until your house price drops, and you will be kicking yourself about why you paid 2021 prices. Even though you plan to live in your house a long time (and by the way, you can't predict the future, you may be forced to move for other reasons), house prices that remain flat would mean you have lost money vis-a-vis renting. The amount of interest you pay on your mortgage will not be compensated for by rising house prices.


Yes, IF our home value drops by 15% AND we have to or want to move sooner than expected AND a similar home becomes available for rent at the right price, then sure, you could make the argument we'd have been better off financially if we had remained renters. But there are exactly zero houses for rent right now in the school district we want for our DD, and we are so, so much happier in our house versus our cramped apartment. Like anything, there is uncertainty. Like, if the stock market crashes by 50% then yeah, I'd have been better off putting more money in bonds, but if I had been investing in bonds only for the past ten years I'd have lost out on a lot of gains. At some point you have to take a risk. Buying a house I love at a price I can afford is a risk I feel extremely comfortable having taken. You do you.


Nothing against buying a house you can afford. What I think many people did in the second half of 2020 and early part of this year is overpaying by a significant amount for their houses. They could have waited and not paid insane prices. If prices stay flat, they would be losing money if interest payments, maintenance, property taxes, insurance, etc are higher than rents.


Waited how long? I mean I think there are some people that really made dumb choices out of FOMO, but most just paid market prices and I have not seen those go down. I don't see them going down, I don't even see them staying completely flat.

DP. Plenty of data that homes have been sitting longer with more price reductions. Prices down relative to this time last year as well. The market isn’t going to implode but c’mon it obviously wasn’t a good idea to purchase a home at the same time everyone is fleeing condos and apartments because of covid.


Where are you getting that from?

All the price reductions I'm seeing are delusional people (like the one who decided to price their center unit townhouse on the main road the same as a end unit in the interior of the community that sold a couple of months ago). I'm seeing a lot of recent (as in last 7 days) sales at prices that are $50-$100k higher than what similar houses sold last year.


This, all the way. Things that are priced what I call "high but fair" are going right away. The stuff that is sitting is from delusional people who are doing things like putting up homes that need tons of work up for the same as what new or totally updated homes are going for...
Anonymous
Post 08/31/2021 14:02     Subject: I think the bubble is popping.
I think a large proportion of the children of current DMV residents will displace to cheaper environs, and WFH in government and in government-adjacent circles or as entrepreneurs, if they can't get hired by government or by government contractors.