Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The number of FARMS students began increasing way before 2011. Please post the evidence that Starr and MCPS were focused on "white family retention" in the DCC between 2011-2014. Please post data demonstrating that there is an increase in white and minority students opting for private between the years of 2011 - 2017. Please post the data showing that there has been an increase in the number of private and parochial schools (for K and older) since 2011.

Your assertions are possible, but I do not believe you have any sort of data to back them up.

I'm not the PP, but as long as we're talking about data, remember that the DCC includes several areas that have appreciated in the last five years and where demographics are changing. Everything along the Red Line (TPES, PBES, ESSES, SPES, Woodlin, FSES, OTES and therefore TPMS, SSMIS, and Sligo MS) is trending more middle class, partially because middle class families are being pushed out of the District.

This is fairly evident and the data people are using here is several years old so not really helpful for spotting trends.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The number of FARMS students began increasing way before 2011. Please post the evidence that Starr and MCPS were focused on "white family retention" in the DCC between 2011-2014. Please post data demonstrating that there is an increase in white and minority students opting for private between the years of 2011 - 2017. Please post the data showing that there has been an increase in the number of private and parochial schools (for K and older) since 2011.

Your assertions are possible, but I do not believe you have any sort of data to back them up.

I'm not the PP, but as long as we're talking about data, remember that the DCC includes several areas that have appreciated in the last five years and where demographics are changing. Everything along the Red Line (TPES, PBES, ESSES, SPES, Woodlin, FSES, OTES and therefore TPMS, SSMIS, and Sligo MS) is trending more middle class, partially because middle class families are being pushed out of the District.

By the way, OTES does not feed into any of the MS you listed. I am not sure which school FSES is or SPES.

From school at a glance data on mcps website http://www.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/departments/sharedaccountability/glance/

ESSES: 2011 FARMS- 59.7%; 2017 FARMS- 57.3%
PBES: 2011 FARMS- 30.3%; 2017 FARMS- 32%
Woodlin: 2011 FARMS- 21.8%; 2017 FARMS- 23.3%

SSIMS: 2011 FARMS- 43.4%; 2017 FARMS- 39.9%
Sligo: 2011 FARMS- 50.6%; 2017 FARMS- 43.5%
Takoma Park: 2011 FARMS- 20.7%; 2017 FARMS - 27.3%

Blair HS 2011 FARMS- 34.2%; 2017 FARMS- 36%
Einstein HS 2011 FARMS- 39.2%; 2017 FARMS- 42.2%
Northwood HS 2011 FARMS- 36.8%; 2017 FARMS- 49.8%

I've lived in the DCC for 25 years and sent my kids to RVES, NMMS, and Einstein. The data is interesting. I don't think it bares out that the schools you mentioned are gentrifying, maybe staying basically the same since 2011. White people moving in always seem to think they are gentrifying and the schools are getting "better". I sure thought that way when I bought my house for nothing in 1993. I never would have expected to be sending my younger kids to schools with higher esol and fARMS rates than my oldest. The reality is that despite astronomical SFH pricing increases it has not led to lower FARMS rates in schools. Here is the data for my assigned schools.

RVES- 2003 FARMS- 42.8%; 2011 FARMS- 46.5%; 2017 FARMS- 50.5%
NMMS- 2003 FARMS- 36.3%; 2011 FARMS- 53.7%; 2017 FARMS- 46.2%
Einstein- 2003 FARMS- 24.6%; 2011 FARMS- 39.2%; 2017 FARMS- 42.2%

Anonymous wrote:

We also don't know what happened between 2010-2011 and 2016-2017.

And, if white students are now attending private schools in large numbers, what private schools are they attending? Have the private schools attended by white students in the area increased the number of seats?

If you remember back in 2011-2014 there were a bunch of articles about white flight fears for the eastern side of the county. Starr and MCPS had a focus on how to retain white families in the DCC. I suspect this data is what was driving them and fear of scores dropping. There has been other data that the number of children on FARMS has substantially increased in the past several years. The 'Montgomery County Stagnation' thread had data on how Montgomery County is not attracting business and growing poorer. The yearly budget shortfalls are an outcome of this.

I would suspect that the number of affluent white and minority residents opting for private has substantially increased from 2011 to 2017. The number of private and parochial schools has been growing in both the east and west sides of the county. My oldest started 1st grade the year before 2.0 rolled out. We did Montessori K and she was 1 of only 5 that stayed. When my youngest went to K five years late, the Montessori K program was full - around 50-70 kids while the local MCPS school had to cut K classes. Several daycare/preschool centers in the area opened up K-2 programs which filled up. From talking with neighbors most planned to re-enter at some point near high school but many stayed out.

Could you please list some of the new private and parochial schools that have opened in Montgomery County since 2011?

I'm not the PP, but as long as we're talking about data, remember that the DCC includes several areas that have appreciated in the last five years and where demographics are changing. Everything along the Red Line (TPES, PBES, ESSES, SPES, Woodlin, FSES, OTES and therefore TPMS, SSMIS, and Sligo MS) is trending more middle class, partially because middle class families are being pushed out of the District.

I don't have time to search for this now but there is data that shows the DCC schools are getting poorer. Its trending down not up. The data is in the increasing percentage of enrolled children in FARMS. This number has exploded in the DCC.

I agree that prices have started to recover in the DCC as people are priced out of DC but the people competing for those houses are simply replacing pre-existing white couples/families. The high poverty is concentrated in the apartments and low income housing. The number of wealthy to middle class families number in MCPS also gets diluted as many opt for private school or are couples with no plans for kids.

Common sense folks, common sense.

Anonymous wrote:The number of FARMS students began increasing way before 2011. Please post the evidence that Starr and MCPS were focused on "white family retention" in the DCC between 2011-2014. Please post data demonstrating that there is an increase in white and minority students opting for private between the years of 2011 - 2017. Please post the data showing that there has been an increase in the number of private and parochial schools (for K and older) since 2011.

Your assertions are possible, but I do not believe you have any sort of data to back them up.

I'm not the PP, but as long as we're talking about data, remember that the DCC includes several areas that have appreciated in the last five years and where demographics are changing. Everything along the Red Line (TPES, PBES, ESSES, SPES, Woodlin, FSES, OTES and therefore TPMS, SSMIS, and Sligo MS) is trending more middle class, partially because middle class families are being pushed out of the District.

http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/OLO/Resources/Files/OLO%20Report%202014-7%20Final.pdf

Above is a link to a report that was done by the Montgomery County Council - not MCPS- on the achievement gap in the poorest and lowest performing 11 schools - Blair, Wheaton, Seneca Valley, Watkins Mills etc.