Anonymous wrote:Is this true, Hogan was on CNBC and said that he and Alsobrooks are tied, neck and neck in the polls. Yikes.

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Anonymous wrote:Tester is in danger, but still likely to pull it out.

This article shows why he's popular. He's the only member of Congress in either chamber who is a working farmer. He's very grass roots and likeable. And that's why he's won the last three terms (since 2007).

Sheehy is another rich Republican. He moved to Montana and started up a business and he talks to the wealthy elite in the resort towns. Sheehy has been trying to push that Tester is just another rubber stamp for the Biden-Harris administration and he would be the same for a Harris-Walz administration. But it's hard when Tester is the only sitting Democrat that has not endorsed the Harris campaign, he did not vote for her to become the party nominee, and he's skipping the DNC. He's not tying his wagon to the current administration.

Good article showing why Tester is so well liked in Montana
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/16/g-s1-17155/why-the-last-democrat-standing-in-montana-is-skipping-the-dnc

Tester skipped the DNC in order to harvest his crop - "If you're a farmer you know that pay day only comes once a year" (actual quote to a local news reporter). And then the night of Harris's acceptance he hosted a Pearl Jam concert at U of Montana (he's personal friends with Jeff Ahmet, who lives in MT on Flathead Lake).

I was in MT last week and Tester is running a great campaign. He's on the local news every night, doing town halls across the state, etc. Sheehy is widely viewed as a rich out-of-state carpetbagger, even among local Republicans. The issues with out-of-state wealth and buying up local homes for STR purposes is really creating a real populist movement among otherwise conservative Montanan locals.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Tester is in danger, but still likely to pull it out.

This article shows why he's popular. He's the only member of Congress in either chamber who is a working farmer. He's very grass roots and likeable. And that's why he's won the last three terms (since 2007).

Sheehy is another rich Republican. He moved to Montana and started up a business and he talks to the wealthy elite in the resort towns. Sheehy has been trying to push that Tester is just another rubber stamp for the Biden-Harris administration and he would be the same for a Harris-Walz administration. But it's hard when Tester is the only sitting Democrat that has not endorsed the Harris campaign, he did not vote for her to become the party nominee, and he's skipping the DNC. He's not tying his wagon to the current administration.

Good article showing why Tester is so well liked in Montana
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/16/g-s1-17155/why-the-last-democrat-standing-in-montana-is-skipping-the-dnc

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No way Democrats are going to flip Texas or Florida. Texas Democratic Party has zero infrastructure which is what you need for a state wide seat. And Florida GOP is just powerhouse. Maybe in 10 years if Democrats invest heavily and get rid of the corrupt leadership in TX.

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Anonymous wrote:My prediction is for Harris to win the presidency but house and Senate won't have a democrat majority reason being many people feel Trump isn't fit for presidency but they aren't fully in agreement with Democrats or Republicans that matter a Purple Congress would force what average Americans view as moderate.

I am close to you. I expect that Harris will win the White House, the Republicans will widen their margin slightly in the House, but I think the Senate will end up 50-50 with WV going to the Republicans. So, Walz will be President of the Senate and will likely be as busy as Harris was the first two years as President of the Senate.

I think this is likely it
I could see Democrats getting a majority if the Republican option is Maga, I can see people voting Democrat to get rid of Maga seats
If that happens I predict it will swing red again during midterm if there are more traditional gop options

Anonymous wrote:Is there a thread for House 2024 elections?