Anonymous wrote:

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Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Obviously, she is making the point that there are numerous negative public health consequences of lockdowns. It is relevant to keeping schools closed because that will force more people to remain at home to supervise their kids. If you used to ride your bike to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you are already stretched between facilitating DL and getting your work done, it may be hard to fit in workouts. Not to mention kids are missing out on sports.

DP, and I think the weight gain isn’t the best comparative outcome here. More: why is it preferable for children to be beaten to death by their parents, or to experience life-long consequences of trauma (and good luck fixing those), than it is for teachers to take a small risk of serious outcomes and even smaller risk of death from COVID-19? Those are more the outcomes we’re talking about. Yes, I picked the extreme examples, but claiming that we’re sentencing teachers to die by asking them to teach in-person this Fall is also extreme.

Yes, it is ridiculous hyperbole, and evidence of the mass hysteria we are facing when trying to have this discussion. Don't get me started on parents worrying about their kids safety at school because of Covid...

Right. Ridiculous hyperbole for teachers to be worried about dying from an infectious disease that has killed 110,000 Americans in the past three months but totally reasonable for people to be screaming about “life long trauma” and children being “beaten to death”. Give me a break. If you beat your child to death it is no one else’s fault. Now you’re likening school closure to murder. If you kill your children or allow yourself to become obese during quarantine those are personal failings. It isn’t the government, the school system, or anyone else’s fault. People need to learn some personal responsibility.

Obviously/hopefully PP is not beating his children. She is referring to public statistics.

Of course I'm not beating my children. I was referring to the reports of increased rates of severe child abuse going on right now--as evidenced by an increase in cases presenting to EDs--coupled with a decrease in reports to CPS, in all likelihood because there aren't eyes on these endangered kids right now. That's real. So is the disengagement of many kids, most of them already at risk due to poverty, from the educational system.

Not real: that all, or even most, teachers are at high risk of severe disease or death from COVID. Also not real: that childcare facilities are sites of significant disease outbreak. Teachers complain that older kids can't social distance; how do you think the toddlers in essential daycares do that? They don't. And yet, somehow, the overwhelming majority of those open have operated safely for several months now *without major outbreaks*.

Look, you can be scared all you want. But you can't claim "science" and "data" when you ignore the science and the data that don't support your position.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Obviously, she is making the point that there are numerous negative public health consequences of lockdowns. It is relevant to keeping schools closed because that will force more people to remain at home to supervise their kids. If you used to ride your bike to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you are already stretched between facilitating DL and getting your work done, it may be hard to fit in workouts. Not to mention kids are missing out on sports.

DP, and I think the weight gain isn’t the best comparative outcome here. More: why is it preferable for children to be beaten to death by their parents, or to experience life-long consequences of trauma (and good luck fixing those), than it is for teachers to take a small risk of serious outcomes and even smaller risk of death from COVID-19? Those are more the outcomes we’re talking about. Yes, I picked the extreme examples, but claiming that we’re sentencing teachers to die by asking them to teach in-person this Fall is also extreme.

Yes, it is ridiculous hyperbole, and evidence of the mass hysteria we are facing when trying to have this discussion. Don't get me started on parents worrying about their kids safety at school because of Covid...

Right. Ridiculous hyperbole for teachers to be worried about dying from an infectious disease that has killed 110,000 Americans in the past three months but totally reasonable for people to be screaming about “life long trauma” and children being “beaten to death”. Give me a break. If you beat your child to death it is no one else’s fault. Now you’re likening school closure to murder. If you kill your children or allow yourself to become obese during quarantine those are personal failings. It isn’t the government, the school system, or anyone else’s fault. People need to learn some personal responsibility.

Obviously/hopefully PP is not beating his children. She is referring to public statistics.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Obviously, she is making the point that there are numerous negative public health consequences of lockdowns. It is relevant to keeping schools closed because that will force more people to remain at home to supervise their kids. If you used to ride your bike to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you are already stretched between facilitating DL and getting your work done, it may be hard to fit in workouts. Not to mention kids are missing out on sports.

DP, and I think the weight gain isn’t the best comparative outcome here. More: why is it preferable for children to be beaten to death by their parents, or to experience life-long consequences of trauma (and good luck fixing those), than it is for teachers to take a small risk of serious outcomes and even smaller risk of death from COVID-19? Those are more the outcomes we’re talking about. Yes, I picked the extreme examples, but claiming that we’re sentencing teachers to die by asking them to teach in-person this Fall is also extreme.

Yes, it is ridiculous hyperbole, and evidence of the mass hysteria we are facing when trying to have this discussion. Don't get me started on parents worrying about their kids safety at school because of Covid...

Right. Ridiculous hyperbole for teachers to be worried about dying from an infectious disease that has killed 110,000 Americans in the past three months but totally reasonable for people to be screaming about “life long trauma” and children being “beaten to death”. Give me a break. If you beat your child to death it is no one else’s fault. Now you’re likening school closure to murder. If you kill your children or allow yourself to become obese during quarantine those are personal failings. It isn’t the government, the school system, or anyone else’s fault. People need to learn some personal responsibility.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Obviously, she is making the point that there are numerous negative public health consequences of lockdowns. It is relevant to keeping schools closed because that will force more people to remain at home to supervise their kids. If you used to ride your bike to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you are already stretched between facilitating DL and getting your work done, it may be hard to fit in workouts. Not to mention kids are missing out on sports.

DP, and I think the weight gain isn’t the best comparative outcome here. More: why is it preferable for children to be beaten to death by their parents, or to experience life-long consequences of trauma (and good luck fixing those), than it is for teachers to take a small risk of serious outcomes and even smaller risk of death from COVID-19? Those are more the outcomes we’re talking about. Yes, I picked the extreme examples, but claiming that we’re sentencing teachers to die by asking them to teach in-person this Fall is also extreme.

Yes, it is ridiculous hyperbole, and evidence of the mass hysteria we are facing when trying to have this discussion. Don't get me started on parents worrying about their kids safety at school because of Covid...

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Obviously, she is making the point that there are numerous negative public health consequences of lockdowns. It is relevant to keeping schools closed because that will force more people to remain at home to supervise their kids. If you used to ride your bike to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you are already stretched between facilitating DL and getting your work done, it may be hard to fit in workouts. Not to mention kids are missing out on sports.

DP, and I think the weight gain isn’t the best comparative outcome here. More: why is it preferable for children to be beaten to death by their parents, or to experience life-long consequences of trauma (and good luck fixing those), than it is for teachers to take a small risk of serious outcomes and even smaller risk of death from COVID-19? Those are more the outcomes we’re talking about. Yes, I picked the extreme examples, but claiming that we’re sentencing teachers to die by asking them to teach in-person this Fall is also extreme.

PP here and I agree. If I remember correctly, the PP originally mentioned weight gain as one possible negative consequence among many.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Obviously, she is making the point that there are numerous negative public health consequences of lockdowns. It is relevant to keeping schools closed because that will force more people to remain at home to supervise their kids. If you used to ride your bike to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you are already stretched between facilitating DL and getting your work done, it may be hard to fit in workouts. Not to mention kids are missing out on sports.

DP, and I think the weight gain isn’t the best comparative outcome here. More: why is it preferable for children to be beaten to death by their parents, or to experience life-long consequences of trauma (and good luck fixing those), than it is for teachers to take a small risk of serious outcomes and even smaller risk of death from COVID-19? Those are more the outcomes we’re talking about. Yes, I picked the extreme examples, but claiming that we’re sentencing teachers to die by asking them to teach in-person this Fall is also extreme.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Obviously, she is making the point that there are numerous negative public health consequences of lockdowns. It is relevant to keeping schools closed because that will force more people to remain at home to supervise their kids. If you used to ride your bike to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you are already stretched between facilitating DL and getting your work done, it may be hard to fit in workouts. Not to mention kids are missing out on sports.

Sure, and if you used to have a long car commute to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you used to eat out a lot, you are not doing that anymore. Not to mention kids have most of the day to be outside.

Plus, how is this relevant to school next fall? We are not talking about stay-at-home orders. We are talking about school next fall.

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You can’t leave kids home alone for indefinite periods until 8 legally, so yes, low income people with little kids who count on daycare and school ARE suffering. But more importantly, their kids, who arguably benefit from school and count on school enrichment in the way UMC kids don’t have to, suffer.

Why is this okay with people? And why are we closing schools to protect a small fraction of people while the rest of population - an overwhelming number - are losing jobs, education, and suffering from other illnesses - some serious ailments - that are actually INCREASING because of the covid19 hysteria.

When nigh on 110,000 Americans have died from covid19 in just a few months, it's actually kind of despicable to refer to it as "covid19 hysteria".

Because the are 21 million (yes, million) unemployed people in the US right now.

That makes it "hysteria", how?

Covid is serious and it can be deadly for a subset of those who contract it. 100,000 people dead is a big deal. But so is the health impacts of rampant unemployment and poverty - which will grow. So are the health issues that come with increased poverty and the limitations that are taking place across the healthcare system to defer to covid. So are the societal impacts of no school. Schools need to reopen.

People have no sense of scale with risk. The health risk from everyone staying home and gaining ten pounds probably dwarfs COVID in terms of numbers.

Some of us understand how bad it is. Some of us have relatives or even ourselves who are caring for COVID patients. My sibling is a doctor in NY. Several of their co-workers were or are on vents. Some survived some didn't. Many others have gotten really sick and taking months to recover if at all. You have no concept of how bad this is.

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

My undergrad degree is in public health. While some people have gained weight in quarantine, many have also lost weight by having more home cooking and more time to exercise. Quarantine doesn’t have to lead to obesity.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Obviously, she is making the point that there are numerous negative public health consequences of lockdowns. It is relevant to keeping schools closed because that will force more people to remain at home to supervise their kids. If you used to ride your bike to work, for instance, you are not doing that anymore. If you are already stretched between facilitating DL and getting your work done, it may be hard to fit in workouts. Not to mention kids are missing out on sports.

Anonymous wrote:

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

Are you the "gained weight" PP? Can you please explain how this is relevant to school next fall?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

You can’t leave kids home alone for indefinite periods until 8 legally, so yes, low income people with little kids who count on daycare and school ARE suffering. But more importantly, their kids, who arguably benefit from school and count on school enrichment in the way UMC kids don’t have to, suffer.

Why is this okay with people? And why are we closing schools to protect a small fraction of people while the rest of population - an overwhelming number - are losing jobs, education, and suffering from other illnesses - some serious ailments - that are actually INCREASING because of the covid19 hysteria.

When nigh on 110,000 Americans have died from covid19 in just a few months, it's actually kind of despicable to refer to it as "covid19 hysteria".

Because the are 21 million (yes, million) unemployed people in the US right now.

That makes it "hysteria", how?

Covid is serious and it can be deadly for a subset of those who contract it. 100,000 people dead is a big deal. But so is the health impacts of rampant unemployment and poverty - which will grow. So are the health issues that come with increased poverty and the limitations that are taking place across the healthcare system to defer to covid. So are the societal impacts of no school. Schools need to reopen.

People have no sense of scale with risk. The health risk from everyone staying home and gaining ten pounds probably dwarfs COVID in terms of numbers.

Some of us understand how bad it is. Some of us have relatives or even ourselves who are caring for COVID patients. My sibling is a doctor in NY. Several of their co-workers were or are on vents. Some survived some didn't. Many others have gotten really sick and taking months to recover if at all. You have no concept of how bad this is.

Really? I have a graduate degree in Public Health, so I am used to thinking in terms of populations. Of course, it is bad to die or have long term health consequences from COVID. It is also bad if even more people die from or have long term consequences from heart disease because they gained weight. That's how it works.

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Anonymous wrote:All this arguing and bottom line none of us are the decision makers here. They will open or they won’t. Or something in between. And we’ll deal. Is there another option?

Yes. Try to influence the decision by contacting the decision-makers. And/or taking non-violent direct action, if it comes to that.

Curious what steps people are actually taking - who are you contacting? I assume the decision will be made at the state level and not the county level correct? Who here has contacted someone?

I e-mailed the BoE, with ccs to my county council members. I'm also planning to e-mail my state senator and delegates. And the governor, pro forma, even though he's made it clear that he doesn't care what people in Montgomery County think.

I hope the governor isn’t making public health decisions based on parents threatening to riot if schools don’t reopen as normal.

I think that the governor should take public opinion into account though, don't you? You know, the "public" in public health.

Especially because public health encompasses much more than just one particular infectious disease. For example,child well-being (including social/emotional learning, education, and family/home environment) and parental/family well-being (including income, employment, housing, and food).

We can fix all of those things through programs. We can’t fix death.

No we can't.

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Anonymous wrote:The data is very encouraging. https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/ The positivity rate dropped from 27% to 7.6%, number of currently hospitalized dropped from 1700 to 1000, number of death dropped from more than 50 to 9 over about a month.
And we still have almost 3 months until school starts. Planning to keep schools closed is totally unacceptable. Other areas/countries are planning to have students in class earlier than usual to make up for the lost instruction. I agree that if schools still do not open for ALL students in MoCo, it will not be swallowed easily by public.

Here's data by county:
https://phpa.health.maryland.gov/Documents/Positivity%20by%20Jurisdiction.pdf

MoCo has a 10.8% positive rate, 3rd highest in the state.

My thinking is that MoCo will make a more restrictive decision compared to many MD counties (except PG and Baltimore), because the numbers and rates are so high comparatively.

The MoCo data dashboard says it’s 12% (using three-day average): https://montgomerycountymd.gov/HHS/RightNav/Coronavirus-data.html

In less than 2 weeks, it will be less than 8%. In less than 4 weeks it will be less than 5%. By the end of July, it will be less than 3%. By the end of August, it will be less than 1%. This assumes MoCo continues to open up. Save this post.

I came up with the above prediction through my statistical programming two days ago. I'm still behind it.

From your mouth to gods ears!

Based on all the publicly available data since the beginning of this, each one of those predictions have a probability of 98% to be true. If you call that wishful thinking so be it. I'm just curious analyzing all this.

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All this arguing and bottom line none of us are the decision makers here. They will open or they won’t. Or something in between. And we’ll deal. Is there another option?

Yes. Try to influence the decision by contacting the decision-makers. And/or taking non-violent direct action, if it comes to that.

Curious what steps people are actually taking - who are you contacting? I assume the decision will be made at the state level and not the county level correct? Who here has contacted someone?

I e-mailed the BoE, with ccs to my county council members. I'm also planning to e-mail my state senator and delegates. And the governor, pro forma, even though he's made it clear that he doesn't care what people in Montgomery County think.

I hope the governor isn’t making public health decisions based on parents threatening to riot if schools don’t reopen as normal.

I think that the governor should take public opinion into account though, don't you? You know, the "public" in public health.

Especially because public health encompasses much more than just one particular infectious disease. For example,child well-being (including social/emotional learning, education, and family/home environment) and parental/family well-being (including income, employment, housing, and food).

We can fix all of those things through programs. We can’t fix death.

Yes, through programs, including schools.

PP, I understand that you're anxious, but "ban everything that results in death" is bad public-health policy. There are costs and benefits to every decision. For example, the costs of banning the sale of crib bumpers are very low, compared to the benefits. (Costs: crib bumper makers will have to redo their product line, people who want to buy crib bumpers will find it more difficult to do so. Benefits: lower risk of suffocation in crib bumpers by babies.)

In contrast, the costs of keeping kids out of school are very high, compared to the benefits. Especially because it seems, from preliminary data, that schools are not a major source of covid spread.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All this arguing and bottom line none of us are the decision makers here. They will open or they won’t. Or something in between. And we’ll deal. Is there another option?

Yes. Try to influence the decision by contacting the decision-makers. And/or taking non-violent direct action, if it comes to that.

Curious what steps people are actually taking - who are you contacting? I assume the decision will be made at the state level and not the county level correct? Who here has contacted someone?

I e-mailed the BoE, with ccs to my county council members. I'm also planning to e-mail my state senator and delegates. And the governor, pro forma, even though he's made it clear that he doesn't care what people in Montgomery County think.

I hope the governor isn’t making public health decisions based on parents threatening to riot if schools don’t reopen as normal.

I think that the governor should take public opinion into account though, don't you? You know, the "public" in public health.

Especially because public health encompasses much more than just one particular infectious disease. For example,child well-being (including social/emotional learning, education, and family/home environment) and parental/family well-being (including income, employment, housing, and food).

We can fix all of those things through programs. We can’t fix death.