Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Emerson poll has Trump +10 in Iowa. But feel free to cling to whatever poll makes you happier.

Yes but Selzer is THE Iowa pollster. Emerson polls nationally and is parachuting in.

I'm really struggling with this because the gulf is so wide, but I trust Selzer on Iowa over anyone else.

Her result is still within a standard margin of error, making them effectively tied. But if true, that is a huge swing. Iowa should not be in play if Trump is winning.

Also I'm still reviewing details of the poll but the most interesting result: it has women 65+ voting Harris 2-1. That's a huge deal because that's a very reliable voting bloc-- older people vote at high rates and older women vote more reliably than men.

Yes. Older women are super super pissed. They don’t want people messing around with reproductive rights and they remember pre-roe and many have a lot of sad stories. Not so much back alley abortions, but misguided marriages and lost career opportunities.

Plus they don’t want the gop cratering social security and Medicare. The media has not given this much attention, but it has been a consistent plot line from the gop to get rid of those entitlements and older women are sensitive about the issue.

Some other analysis I've seen mentions that while young voters may have no memory of Trump's "grab 'em by the pussy," older women do remember. They are also more likely to accurately remember that Trump's economy was inherited from Obama and how badly Trump screwed up Covid response, stuff that many voters appear to have randomly forgotten or never knew. But it all undercuts Trump's argument to voters that they were "better off" when he was president.

I love all of this if it pans out. This group is not getting enough coverage with the constant reachout to young people and certain demographics.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

She got the 2-1 Harris result among older women by hugely over sampling liberals. That result would be a massive shift from the 2020 and 2022 election results. It would only happen if only liberal women go to the polls and conservative women stay home. She admitted her poll could effect turnout. She is a liberal who released a poll oversampling other liberals in order to try to swing the election to Harris.

Flip POV is that liberal women have become more likely to turn out (because they are mad after the 6 week ban in Iowa coupled with worsening scarcity of GYN providers). Makes logical sense.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

She got the 2-1 Harris result among older women by hugely over sampling liberals. That result would be a massive shift from the 2020 and 2022 election results. It would only happen if only liberal women go to the polls and conservative women stay home. She admitted her poll could effect turnout. She is a liberal who released a poll oversampling other liberals in order to try to swing the election to Harris.

Anonymous wrote:Ann Selzer was on Morning Joe and said the biggest change in her Iowa poll was the shift in the likely voter demographics. All the Harris voter demos polled as more likely to turn out. Her poll also shows Democratic challengers ahead of Republican incumbents in House districts 1 and 3.

She oversampled Democrats in her poll. She admitted she doesn’t even weight for partisanship in her poll. What kind of reputable pollster creates a Democrat electorate in a state that has been leaning more and more Republican? Republicans gained in voter registration since 2020.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DIL is 8 weeks pregnant in Iowa. It’s too late for her to make any decision to continue the pregnancy if anything goes wrong. Iowa has a 6 week abortion ban. You can bet most women here are livid.

Congrats on your new grandchild!

Uh, there's a saying, don't count your chickens. I hope her DIL's pregnancy goes well. But it's presumptuous to assume. And those potential tragic outcomes are a big reason why the pro-life movement is in trouble.

It’s quite creepy that democrats see every pregnancy, even their own grandchild, through the lens of a potential abortion. Like it’s the actual expected outcome.

It’s like the potential tragic outcomes are the focus of their being.

What an incredibly weird and insensitive take. Every pregnancy has the risk of life-threatening complications.

The vast majority of abortions are elective. Both mom and baby are completely healthy.

Also, lots of democrats view their own babies as a parasite that is harmful and foreign.

They vehemently categorize a pregnancy that results from consensual sexual activity as slavery and a takeover of their bodies.

It’s their own child they are speaking about in this way. It is so creepy!

Seriously, get a birth control implant and stop making your own children your enemies and killing them.

LOL. Do you say the same about the Republican women getting abortions in nearly the same numbers as Dems? (Though you may be a troll with this unhinged post.)

For your edification, political affiliation of women who have gotten pregnant:
12% Republican
15% Independent
14% Democrat

https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/press-release/similar-shares-of-republican-democratic-and-independent-women-one-in-seven-report-having-had-an-abortion/

Again, Trumpsters allergic to inconvenient truths.

Conservative brains aren't able to process the fact that most women who have abortions already have children. In their minds women who have abortions are all single and sleeping around and just don't want to be "inconvenienced" by a baby. It's the only way they can justify forced birtherism.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

Yes, exactly - I think Selzer is the only one who's captured how women are feeling and behaving

As a Democrat I never feel certain we will win. Especially after the nightmare of 2016. But I expect in the end we will see a lot more women's fingerprints on the outcome than the polls are largely representing now - Selzer aside.

^^ Who have gotten ABORTIONS

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DIL is 8 weeks pregnant in Iowa. It’s too late for her to make any decision to continue the pregnancy if anything goes wrong. Iowa has a 6 week abortion ban. You can bet most women here are livid.

Congrats on your new grandchild!

Uh, there's a saying, don't count your chickens. I hope her DIL's pregnancy goes well. But it's presumptuous to assume. And those potential tragic outcomes are a big reason why the pro-life movement is in trouble.

It’s quite creepy that democrats see every pregnancy, even their own grandchild, through the lens of a potential abortion. Like it’s the actual expected outcome.

It’s like the potential tragic outcomes are the focus of their being.

What an incredibly weird and insensitive take. Every pregnancy has the risk of life-threatening complications.

The vast majority of abortions are elective. Both mom and baby are completely healthy.

Also, lots of democrats view their own babies as a parasite that is harmful and foreign.

They vehemently categorize a pregnancy that results from consensual sexual activity as slavery and a takeover of their bodies.

It’s their own child they are speaking about in this way. It is so creepy!

Seriously, get a birth control implant and stop making your own children your enemies and killing them.

1) Here you are again with your “vast majority” totally sacrificing the needs of the women in the margins for your “pro-life” stance.

2) You should get out of your bubble or you believe Democrats are the only people on the political spectrum who view abortion as health care.

3) A fetus is, in fact, not a child.

fe·tus
noun
an offspring of a human or other mammal in the stages of prenatal development that follow the embryo stage (in humans taken as beginning eight weeks after conception)
"adequate folic acid is important for the developing fetus"

In biology, "offspring" refers to the young produced by a living organism through reproduction, essentially meaning the "children" of an organism, whether created through sexual or asexual reproduction; they inherit traits from their parents and are considered the new generation resulting from the reproductive process.

Key points about offspring:
Origin:
Offspring can be produced by a single parent (asexual reproduction) or by two parents (sexual reproduction).

Genetic variation:
In sexual reproduction, offspring inherit a unique combination of genes from their parents, leading to genetic variation.

Terminology:
A group of offspring from the same parents can be called a "brood" or "progeny".

Example:
A baby human is considered the offspring of its parents.

A fetus is a child.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DIL is 8 weeks pregnant in Iowa. It’s too late for her to make any decision to continue the pregnancy if anything goes wrong. Iowa has a 6 week abortion ban. You can bet most women here are livid.

Congrats on your new grandchild!

Uh, there's a saying, don't count your chickens. I hope her DIL's pregnancy goes well. But it's presumptuous to assume. And those potential tragic outcomes are a big reason why the pro-life movement is in trouble.

It’s quite creepy that democrats see every pregnancy, even their own grandchild, through the lens of a potential abortion. Like it’s the actual expected outcome.

It’s like the potential tragic outcomes are the focus of their being.

What an incredibly weird and insensitive take. Every pregnancy has the risk of life-threatening complications.

The vast majority of abortions are elective. Both mom and baby are completely healthy.

Also, lots of democrats view their own babies as a parasite that is harmful and foreign.

They vehemently categorize a pregnancy that results from consensual sexual activity as slavery and a takeover of their bodies.

It’s their own child they are speaking about in this way. It is so creepy!

Seriously, get a birth control implant and stop making your own children your enemies and killing them.

LOL. Do you say the same about the Republican women getting abortions in nearly the same numbers as Dems? (Though you may be a troll with this unhinged post.)

For your edification, political affiliation of women who have gotten pregnant:
12% Republican
15% Independent
14% Democrat

https://www.kff.org/womens-health-policy/press-release/similar-shares-of-republican-democratic-and-independent-women-one-in-seven-report-having-had-an-abortion/

Again, Trumpsters allergic to inconvenient truths.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

I don’t think Selzer did, though. She told Mark Halperin that she oversampled older liberal white women.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DIL is 8 weeks pregnant in Iowa. It’s too late for her to make any decision to continue the pregnancy if anything goes wrong. Iowa has a 6 week abortion ban. You can bet most women here are livid.

Congrats on your new grandchild!

Uh, there's a saying, don't count your chickens. I hope her DIL's pregnancy goes well. But it's presumptuous to assume. And those potential tragic outcomes are a big reason why the pro-life movement is in trouble.

It’s quite creepy that democrats see every pregnancy, even their own grandchild, through the lens of a potential abortion. Like it’s the actual expected outcome.

It’s like the potential tragic outcomes are the focus of their being.

What an incredibly weird and insensitive take. Every pregnancy has the risk of life-threatening complications.

The vast majority of abortions are elective. Both mom and baby are completely healthy.

Also, lots of democrats view their own babies as a parasite that is harmful and foreign.

They vehemently categorize a pregnancy that results from consensual sexual activity as slavery and a takeover of their bodies.

It’s their own child they are speaking about in this way. It is so creepy!

Seriously, get a birth control implant and stop making your own children your enemies and killing them.

1) Here you are again with your “vast majority” totally sacrificing the needs of the women in the margins for your “pro-life” stance.

2) You should get out of your bubble or you believe Democrats are the only people on the political spectrum who view abortion as health care.

3) A fetus is, in fact, not a child.

Elective abortion is not health care.

There is no federal requirement for Marketplace plans to cover abortion.

There's no law that requires any health plan, employer-based or anything else, to cover an elective abortion.

If providers perform the abortion as part of a live-saving medical intervention, insurance will cover it. Some insurance plans pay for abortion for cases of rape or incest.

Anonymous wrote:Team Ann Selzer, Team Kamala and Team LADIES

Sing it loud

I never feel confident about anything - but I feel very very confident that most pollsters have vastly underestimated how angry women are

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DIL is 8 weeks pregnant in Iowa. It’s too late for her to make any decision to continue the pregnancy if anything goes wrong. Iowa has a 6 week abortion ban. You can bet most women here are livid.

Congrats on your new grandchild!

Uh, there's a saying, don't count your chickens. I hope her DIL's pregnancy goes well. But it's presumptuous to assume. And those potential tragic outcomes are a big reason why the pro-life movement is in trouble.

It’s quite creepy that democrats see every pregnancy, even their own grandchild, through the lens of a potential abortion. Like it’s the actual expected outcome.

It’s like the potential tragic outcomes are the focus of their being.

What an incredibly weird and insensitive take. Every pregnancy has the risk of life-threatening complications.

The vast majority of abortions are elective. Both mom and baby are completely healthy.

Also, lots of democrats view their own babies as a parasite that is harmful and foreign.

They vehemently categorize a pregnancy that results from consensual sexual activity as slavery and a takeover of their bodies.

It’s their own child they are speaking about in this way. It is so creepy!

Seriously, get a birth control implant and stop making your own children your enemies and killing them.

1) Here you are again with your “vast majority” totally sacrificing the needs of the women in the margins for your “pro-life” stance.

2) You should get out of your bubble or you believe Democrats are the only people on the political spectrum who view abortion as health care.

3) A fetus is, in fact, not a child.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My DIL is 8 weeks pregnant in Iowa. It’s too late for her to make any decision to continue the pregnancy if anything goes wrong. Iowa has a 6 week abortion ban. You can bet most women here are livid.

Congrats on your new grandchild!

Uh, there's a saying, don't count your chickens. I hope her DIL's pregnancy goes well. But it's presumptuous to assume. And those potential tragic outcomes are a big reason why the pro-life movement is in trouble.

It’s quite creepy that democrats see every pregnancy, even their own grandchild, through the lens of a potential abortion. Like it’s the actual expected outcome.

It’s like the potential tragic outcomes are the focus of their being.

What an incredibly weird and insensitive take. Every pregnancy has the risk of life-threatening complications.

The vast majority of abortions are elective. Both mom and baby are completely healthy.

Also, lots of democrats view their own babies as a parasite that is harmful and foreign.

They vehemently categorize a pregnancy that results from consensual sexual activity as slavery and a takeover of their bodies.

It’s their own child they are speaking about in this way. It is so creepy!

Seriously, get a birth control implant and stop making your own children your enemies and killing them.

Another person who takes a stance that would endanger ivf

And apparently would not be bothered if a restaurant serves them an egg after they ordered a chicken.

Ann Selzer was on Morning Joe and said the biggest change in her Iowa poll was the shift in the likely voter demographics. All the Harris voter demos polled as more likely to turn out. Her poll also shows Democratic challengers ahead of Republican incumbents in House districts 1 and 3.