Anonymous wrote:

And? IHME is a prediction model based on past data. I am reporting real numbers. The real numbers tell us we did the worst job of all, 182 countries included. You might want to see the South Korean curve at the bottom. Both countries had their first case on the exact same date.

You do understand that the US is more than five times larger than Italy in population?

Anonymous wrote:

And? IHME is a prediction model based on past data. I am reporting real numbers. The real numbers tell us we did the worst job of all, 182 countries included. You might want to see the South Korean curve at the bottom. Both countries had their first case on the exact same date.

You do understand that the US is more than five times larger than Italy in population?

And? IHME is a prediction model based on past data. I am reporting real numbers. The real numbers tell us we did the worst job of all, 182 countries included. You might want to see the South Korean curve at the bottom. Both countries had their first case on the exact same date.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Added almost 2,000 deaths today

And? That was expected per the IHME model.

Anonymous wrote:Added almost 2,000 deaths today

Anonymous wrote:African American share of the population:
Louisiana 32%
Illinois 15%
Michigan 14%
N Carolina 22%
Chicago 30%

Share of covid-19 deaths:
LA 70%
IL 42%
MI 41%
NC 22%
Chicago 69%

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You are insufferable. Stop trying to gloat and come back in three months when the data will be more clear. Everybody knows what exponential growth is. Millions of Americans will not die from this.

DP. By the end of next week, we are on track to have over 10000 dead.

We don't have to wait 3 months to see catastrophe. It is here already.

If deaths double every three days we are headed for 8k deaths by end of week but more disturbingly 500k cases. Those increasing cases numbers fuel the death rate. In nine days we will have three doublings to a million cases. We are at the point where things are really bad but in another 7-9 days we will be in catastrophic territory.

Well your math was wrong. As of yesterday (April 5th) per the CDC, there were 304k cases and 7600 deaths. I even gave you an extra day on these predictions because “end of week” when you posted this would have been April 4th. But hey, 300k, 500k, what’s the difference?

Huh? We’re at 9700 dead now. Will cross 10,000 today.

Yeah today! But “end of week” when PP posted was April 4th. Not today. And we’re nowhere near 500k infected.

We don't know how many are infected because we still don't have wide scale testing

And if we did, it would probably show that the disease is far less deadly than we have been led to believe. We will never knowii how many were actually infected. It will be an estimate.

Are you sure that all deaths are counted? If person does from atypical pneumonia without being tested for covid-19, that death are not counted either....

BTW, there were earlier reports that Italy did tested people who died at home for covid-19. I doubt States are doing that now

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You are insufferable. Stop trying to gloat and come back in three months when the data will be more clear. Everybody knows what exponential growth is. Millions of Americans will not die from this.

DP. By the end of next week, we are on track to have over 10000 dead.

We don't have to wait 3 months to see catastrophe. It is here already.

If deaths double every three days we are headed for 8k deaths by end of week but more disturbingly 500k cases. Those increasing cases numbers fuel the death rate. In nine days we will have three doublings to a million cases. We are at the point where things are really bad but in another 7-9 days we will be in catastrophic territory.

Well your math was wrong. As of yesterday (April 5th) per the CDC, there were 304k cases and 7600 deaths. I even gave you an extra day on these predictions because “end of week” when you posted this would have been April 4th. But hey, 300k, 500k, what’s the difference?

Huh? We’re at 9700 dead now. Will cross 10,000 today.

Yeah today! But “end of week” when PP posted was April 4th. Not today. And we’re nowhere near 500k infected.

We don't know how many are infected because we still don't have wide scale testing

And if we did, it would probably show that the disease is far less deadly than we have been led to believe. We will never knowii how many were actually infected. It will be an estimate.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You are insufferable. Stop trying to gloat and come back in three months when the data will be more clear. Everybody knows what exponential growth is. Millions of Americans will not die from this.

DP. By the end of next week, we are on track to have over 10000 dead.

We don't have to wait 3 months to see catastrophe. It is here already.

If deaths double every three days we are headed for 8k deaths by end of week but more disturbingly 500k cases. Those increasing cases numbers fuel the death rate. In nine days we will have three doublings to a million cases. We are at the point where things are really bad but in another 7-9 days we will be in catastrophic territory.

Well your math was wrong. As of yesterday (April 5th) per the CDC, there were 304k cases and 7600 deaths. I even gave you an extra day on these predictions because “end of week” when you posted this would have been April 4th. But hey, 300k, 500k, what’s the difference?

Huh? We’re at 9700 dead now. Will cross 10,000 today.

Yeah today! But “end of week” when PP posted was April 4th. Not today. And we’re nowhere near 500k infected.

We don't know how many are infected because we still don't have wide scale testing

And if we did, it would probably show that the disease is far less deadly than we have been led to believe. We will never know how many were actually infected. It will be an estimate.

I refuse to engage in this round and round with death cult devotees. The point is that when someone says "we're nowhere near 500k infected" that person is wrong for epistemological reasons. We cannot know how many people are infected. There could be 20 million people infected for all we know.

And I know you think you're making some kind of "ah ha! gotcha!" point by saying we might learn that this disease is less fatal than we think - or fear - it is now. It would be fantastic to discover that this disease is less deadly than we feared! It would be FREAKING UNBELIEVABLE to be able to open society up again. But we CANNOT BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE FLIPPING TESTING YOU NIMWIT.

In any case your "gotcha" works less well when New York City is literally burying the dead in public parks because there's so many they can't do anything else with them.

In short, go lick a doorknob.

Lol, a good and relaxed morning to you too!

We have plenty of examples from around the world, contemporaneous analysis and precedent from previous outbreaks. It is a judgement call, not a “more data” question at this point.

Also, CAPS JUST BECAUSE!!!

I said lick a doorknob. Good day sir.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
You are insufferable. Stop trying to gloat and come back in three months when the data will be more clear. Everybody knows what exponential growth is. Millions of Americans will not die from this.

DP. By the end of next week, we are on track to have over 10000 dead.

We don't have to wait 3 months to see catastrophe. It is here already.

If deaths double every three days we are headed for 8k deaths by end of week but more disturbingly 500k cases. Those increasing cases numbers fuel the death rate. In nine days we will have three doublings to a million cases. We are at the point where things are really bad but in another 7-9 days we will be in catastrophic territory.

Well your math was wrong. As of yesterday (April 5th) per the CDC, there were 304k cases and 7600 deaths. I even gave you an extra day on these predictions because “end of week” when you posted this would have been April 4th. But hey, 300k, 500k, what’s the difference?

Huh? We’re at 9700 dead now. Will cross 10,000 today.

Yeah today! But “end of week” when PP posted was April 4th. Not today. And we’re nowhere near 500k infected.

We don't know how many are infected because we still don't have wide scale testing

And if we did, it would probably show that the disease is far less deadly than we have been led to believe. We will never know how many were actually infected. It will be an estimate.

I refuse to engage in this round and round with death cult devotees. The point is that when someone says "we're nowhere near 500k infected" that person is wrong for epistemological reasons. We cannot know how many people are infected. There could be 20 million people infected for all we know.

And I know you think you're making some kind of "ah ha! gotcha!" point by saying we might learn that this disease is less fatal than we think - or fear - it is now. It would be fantastic to discover that this disease is less deadly than we feared! It would be FREAKING UNBELIEVABLE to be able to open society up again. But we CANNOT BECAUSE WE DON'T HAVE FLIPPING TESTING YOU NIMWIT.

In any case your "gotcha" works less well when New York City is literally burying the dead in public parks because there's so many they can't do anything else with them.

In short, go lick a doorknob.

Lol, a good and relaxed morning to you too!

We have plenty of examples from around the world, contemporaneous analysis and precedent from previous outbreaks. It is a judgement call, not a “more data” question at this point.

Also, CAPS JUST BECAUSE!!!