Anonymous
Post 09/30/2023 09:49     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I don’t know what’s causing the increase in crime, but I am skeptical that it’s as simple as policing policies. They didn’t have these policies before previous waves of crime.

I think it is just as likely that it’s about waves of particular drugs, or the delayed effect of economic conditions, or I don’t know what.

Was there a big drop in incarceration rates? I also feel like there has been a big shift in surveillance and other tools to prosecute crimes that had to have an impact. Cell phone records, etc.

The carjackings I think are about the changes in theft deterrence. Car thefts are harder to do so carjacking goes way up. That’s a problem but not caused by policing.


You're right - it is a big mix of factors. We've seen crime decrease when we've reduced housing insecurity. We've seen crime down when we reduce poverty. However we're not doing those two things right now. During the pandemic, the District did an experiment with giving some poor families a stipend and studying crime and health effects. The cash transfers greatly reduced housing insecurity, created less anxiety at home, and seemed to reduce crime, too. We know what works, but god forbid we give money to poor people.



What you are talking about isn’t “what works,” it’s things that government can do that have some beneficial effect after a massive number of things have gone wrong. It also involves taking money from people who DID NOT make those mistakes, ie the people who took care of solving the “housing insecurity” problem on their own, and giving it to those who did not. In other words, the real solution lies at another level than the one you are talking about.
Anonymous
Post 09/30/2023 07:40     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Interesting article re: why DC teens are carjacking

https://www.hillrag.com/2023/09/29/why-do-kids-carjack/


Thanks, that's informative.


I believe last year Charles Allen claimed people were carjacking because the weather had turned cold and they wanted to warm up?

I'm not even going to read this--

Violent teens in DC get away with too much (I've worked with them). They should be asked to complete a 'series of wickets' in order to be released when locked up. Not just good behavior. A GED - a precondition might be literacy and general education classes. You'd be shocked by how many of these kids read at a 3rd-5th grade level. A manners class (just threw that in to hear the outcry). Computer skills. Other job training, especially what we call 'trade' which can be highly gainful employment.

On release all kinds of things should be looked at... are they going back to the same neighborhood? Best if they don't if theres any autnie or grandma they can be funnelled to. Job or school lined up? Supervision? More conditions to meet?

Society would be doing them a favor, as they'd live longer and happier lives. But instead we treat them like fruit flies. Anyhoo.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 20:55     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:Interesting article re: why DC teens are carjacking

https://www.hillrag.com/2023/09/29/why-do-kids-carjack/


Thanks, that's informative.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 19:53     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Rush hour on the red line, not like it used to be

https://www.reddit.com/r/washdc/comments/16vnaur/odd_on_red_line_glenmont_operator_kept_the_train/

Where is that thread about taking the metro with kids and how it's like going to Disney? Have seen hard drug use several times on red line in both directions this year, at rush hour, as this was.

Every day, seems like there is some new, grim low.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 13:32     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:I wonder how the legalization of marijuana is impacting the street level drug trade in DC.


Probably not a ton, if my drug-peddling downstairs neighbor is any indication. Based entirely on my own observations, the market has probably bifurcated; the stores are where you go if you're an enthusiast looking for specific strains or if you're a normie and want to buy something for a friend or special occasion, and neither of these groups are particularly price sensitive. Meanwhile, the street dealers are still plying their wares for the less discerning and more price-sensitive customers.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 13:29     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Interesting article re: why DC teens are carjacking

https://www.hillrag.com/2023/09/29/why-do-kids-carjack/
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 12:58     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I don’t know what’s causing the increase in crime, but I am skeptical that it’s as simple as policing policies. They didn’t have these policies before previous waves of crime.

I think it is just as likely that it’s about waves of particular drugs, or the delayed effect of economic conditions, or I don’t know what.

Was there a big drop in incarceration rates? I also feel like there has been a big shift in surveillance and other tools to prosecute crimes that had to have an impact. Cell phone records, etc.

The carjackings I think are about the changes in theft deterrence. Car thefts are harder to do so carjacking goes way up. That’s a problem but not caused by policing.


You're right - it is a big mix of factors. We've seen crime decrease when we've reduced housing insecurity. We've seen crime down when we reduce poverty. However we're not doing those two things right now. During the pandemic, the District did an experiment with giving some poor families a stipend and studying crime and health effects. The cash transfers greatly reduced housing insecurity, created less anxiety at home, and seemed to reduce crime, too. We know what works, but god forbid we give money to poor people.




Right now my taxes are giving poor people nicer apartments in Upper NW than I live in with a full time job. So why isn’t crime going down?
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 12:48     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:I don’t know what’s causing the increase in crime, but I am skeptical that it’s as simple as policing policies. They didn’t have these policies before previous waves of crime.

I think it is just as likely that it’s about waves of particular drugs, or the delayed effect of economic conditions, or I don’t know what.

Was there a big drop in incarceration rates? I also feel like there has been a big shift in surveillance and other tools to prosecute crimes that had to have an impact. Cell phone records, etc.

The carjackings I think are about the changes in theft deterrence. Car thefts are harder to do so carjacking goes way up. That’s a problem but not caused by policing.


You're right - it is a big mix of factors. We've seen crime decrease when we've reduced housing insecurity. We've seen crime down when we reduce poverty. However we're not doing those two things right now. During the pandemic, the District did an experiment with giving some poor families a stipend and studying crime and health effects. The cash transfers greatly reduced housing insecurity, created less anxiety at home, and seemed to reduce crime, too. We know what works, but god forbid we give money to poor people.

Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 08:51     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
I wonder how the legalization of marijuana is impacting the street level drug trade in DC.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 08:42     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I don’t know what’s causing the increase in crime, but I am skeptical that it’s as simple as policing policies. They didn’t have these policies before previous waves of crime.

I think it is just as likely that it’s about waves of particular drugs, or the delayed effect of economic conditions, or I don’t know what.

Was there a big drop in incarceration rates? I also feel like there has been a big shift in surveillance and other tools to prosecute crimes that had to have an impact. Cell phone records, etc.

The carjackings I think are about the changes in theft deterrence. Car thefts are harder to do so carjacking goes way up. That’s a problem but not caused by policing.


It's progressive policies, layered decriminalizing a lot of gateway activities (fare jumping), layered with hands off policing policies, layered with DA policies, layered with sentencing policies (especially youth), layered with no actually rehabilitation when people are in the lockup (mandatory to get a GED etc), layered with toothless supervision when you are out.

When car theft is a 'property crime', when gun charges get routinely pled down, when you are a youth until age 26 with revolving door status--why would you expect there to NOT be rampant crime? It's not one thing.


This, in a nutshell X major cities and not just US.


But are these the things that drove up crime in past periods of high crime? I just don’t see it. I mean I guess maybe this wave has this cause and other waves had other causes but I don’t really buy that argument. I’ve no doubt that some criminal justice policies cause crime to go up or down a little but I think people, the media and politicians tend to assign way too much causality because it’s easy and politically potent.

Like if there’s a complex problem and you think the cause is whatever is your political bone, that’s a big red flag that you’re probably wrong. It goes both ways, DEFINITELY. Like if a left wing political junkie is looking at crime going up and they’re like, the cause is probably micro aggressions in school and trump deploying the military to put down protests, that would be a big red flag that they’re probably wrong. At least mostly wrong.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 07:59     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I don’t know what’s causing the increase in crime, but I am skeptical that it’s as simple as policing policies. They didn’t have these policies before previous waves of crime.

I think it is just as likely that it’s about waves of particular drugs, or the delayed effect of economic conditions, or I don’t know what.

Was there a big drop in incarceration rates? I also feel like there has been a big shift in surveillance and other tools to prosecute crimes that had to have an impact. Cell phone records, etc.

The carjackings I think are about the changes in theft deterrence. Car thefts are harder to do so carjacking goes way up. That’s a problem but not caused by policing.


It's progressive policies, layered decriminalizing a lot of gateway activities (fare jumping), layered with hands off policing policies, layered with DA policies, layered with sentencing policies (especially youth), layered with no actually rehabilitiation when people are in the lockup (mandatory to get a GED etc), layered with toothless supervision when you are out.

When car theft is a 'property crime', when gun charges get routinely pled down, when you are a youth until age 26 with revolving door status--why would you expect there to NOT be rampant crime? It's not one thing.


Good summary. These problems are complex and interwoven and can't just be easily undone. It took decades to do all this damage, and will probably take decades to undue it. That's if its even possible, since many of the people who caused these problems are in denial that they are problems or that they contributed to them.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 07:47     Subject: Re:Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Also, please recognize costs today don't matter so much in pursuit of what they believe is a generational mission.


What is the goal? Abolish prisons? Then what? When they say "equity" what does that really mean, long term?

Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 07:39     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I don’t know what’s causing the increase in crime, but I am skeptical that it’s as simple as policing policies. They didn’t have these policies before previous waves of crime.

I think it is just as likely that it’s about waves of particular drugs, or the delayed effect of economic conditions, or I don’t know what.

Was there a big drop in incarceration rates? I also feel like there has been a big shift in surveillance and other tools to prosecute crimes that had to have an impact. Cell phone records, etc.

The carjackings I think are about the changes in theft deterrence. Car thefts are harder to do so carjacking goes way up. That’s a problem but not caused by policing.


It's progressive policies, layered decriminalizing a lot of gateway activities (fare jumping), layered with hands off policing policies, layered with DA policies, layered with sentencing policies (especially youth), layered with no actually rehabilitation when people are in the lockup (mandatory to get a GED etc), layered with toothless supervision when you are out.

When car theft is a 'property crime', when gun charges get routinely pled down, when you are a youth until age 26 with revolving door status--why would you expect there to NOT be rampant crime? It's not one thing.


This, in a nutshell X major cities and not just US.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 07:38     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:We’re at 209 killings before October for the first time in more than 25 years.

No matter what those with their head in the sand (or another orifice) say, it is now officially as bad as the 90s.


This is entirely the fault of the hyper-progressive council, the mayor, and the policies They have put in place to “defund” or hobble the police department.

The council tried to go even more radical (pro criminal) with their last proposal for, as they called it, “criminal justice reform” based on their twisted view of what “equity” means. Their plan was so radical, not even President Biden would step in to save the plan.

This council and administration are the WORST!

And people are dying as a result of their incompetence.




None of it makes any rational sense. It's clear that "restorative justice" has made life far, far worse for people living in cities, particularly for people of color living in low income neighborhoods. It's baffling. In most cities, it's a fairly small group of criminals that are responsible for the majority of violent crime. They are known to the police and the criminal justice system. The average murderer in DC has 11 felonies. They are not strangers to the system.

So why not arrest them and take them off the streets - say after felony number 4 - and allow people to live their lives in safe communities? Why would that be controversial?

I'm increasingly convinced that progressives like Charles Allen and Brianne Nadeau are eugenicists. Almost every single one of the 209 murder victims in DC so far is black. Among progressives, I have noticed a profound lack of empathy for the black victims of violent crime. In fact, progressive lawmakers and district attorneys - particularly white progressives - seem hellbent on ensuring that urban areas remain as dangerous and unsafe as possible. No one gets prosecuted for anything in DC. Criminals have free reign here.

Why?

Eugenics is the only thing that makes sense. I've come to believe that this is how progressives are choosing to get rid of "less desirable" people. At the root of most progressive "reforms" lies a profound racism. It was like an a-ha moment. That explains the astonishing tolerance, even encouragement, of murder and violent crime among progressives in places like DC.


It's a lot of places, which is how I started thinking about what is driving the patterns. There are people like Nadeau and Allen in many cities and if you listen to a Council hearing on crime the number of funded "activist" groups like HD are enormous, witness after witness with the same rhetoric. As crime has been discussed more on this board, there has been an increase of it here, recently. Somone paid for a lot of market research re: phrases like "restorative justice." Doubt any of it is organic.
Anonymous
Post 09/29/2023 07:14     Subject: Longterm dc area residents, have you noticed decline ?
Anonymous wrote:I don’t know what’s causing the increase in crime, but I am skeptical that it’s as simple as policing policies. They didn’t have these policies before previous waves of crime.

I think it is just as likely that it’s about waves of particular drugs, or the delayed effect of economic conditions, or I don’t know what.

Was there a big drop in incarceration rates? I also feel like there has been a big shift in surveillance and other tools to prosecute crimes that had to have an impact. Cell phone records, etc.

The carjackings I think are about the changes in theft deterrence. Car thefts are harder to do so carjacking goes way up. That’s a problem but not caused by policing.


It's progressive policies, layered decriminalizing a lot of gateway activities (fare jumping), layered with hands off policing policies, layered with DA policies, layered with sentencing policies (especially youth), layered with no actually rehabilitiation when people are in the lockup (mandatory to get a GED etc), layered with toothless supervision when you are out.

When car theft is a 'property crime', when gun charges get routinely pled down, when you are a youth until age 26 with revolving door status--why would you expect there to NOT be rampant crime? It's not one thing.