Anonymous wrote:Yesterday

16%
608/100,000


Today

15.9%
640/100,000

Not looking good

PCR only dropped by .01 since yesterday but more often it’s been closer to .02 (and sometimes none). For the interest of trying to nail down even a ballpark, I did the math on how many days it would take to get below 10% for 5 straight days. If it drops .02% every day, consistently, with no spikes or stagnation, it’s 35 days. That falls on Friday February 2/26. So they earliest I could see is getting in on PCR going below threshold for 5 days is Tuesday 3/2.

Now, some days it might drop .04 then sit, some days it might drop none or it might go up .01 or .02 here and there. So this isn’t foolproof. Bur it’s a “very best case” calculation. Maybe add a week for stagnation or blips that go up, but it realistically at the rate it’s been dropping won’t go much faster than this. So I’m guessing early/mid March best case to return in person. 5-6 more weeks.

Yesterday

16%
608/100,000


Today

15.9%
640/100,000

Not looking good

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:VDH USES 7 DAY

LCPS USES 14 DAY

For the last time. THIS is today’s metrics :

https://public.tableau.com/shared/4FZFY9RGP?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y&:showVizHome=no

Thank you the links. It’s crystal clear in-person’s best scenario is last quarter. If you’re lucky.

We don’t know when it will happen but using data that the schools don’t use to determine safety because that data “looks better” doesn’t mean the schools open any sooner. I get really annoyed when people cite irrelevant data to try to claim it’ll happen sooner. If the 7 day average is 15.3, and the 14 day is 16, we can see that in 7 more days we will have dropped .07%. That gives us a place to start assessing the drop rate and how quickly we might get below the thresholds but it doesn’t mean we are 7 days closer to opening than the 14 day data shows. The metrics people look at matter. The CDC k-12 pandemic workbook is the metrics the boards use and any other data doesn’t factor into the reopening convo.

Anonymous wrote:VDH USES 7 DAY

LCPS USES 14 DAY

For the last time. THIS is today’s metrics :

https://public.tableau.com/shared/4FZFY9RGP?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y&:showVizHome=no

Thank you the links. It’s crystal clear in-person’s best scenario is last quarter. If you’re lucky.

VDH USES 7 DAY

LCPS USES 14 DAY

For the last time. THIS is today’s metrics :

https://public.tableau.com/shared/4FZFY9RGP?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y&:showVizHome=no

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s the PPR and case status as of today ?

16%

It was 16.2 actually.

Loudoun is at 15.3 percent today on the VDH website for positivity rate. Fairfax is 12.1.

There were the percent positivity rates.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s the PPR and case status as of today ?

16%

It was 16.2 actually.

Loudoun is at 15.3 percent today on the VDH website for positivity rate. Fairfax is 12.1.

At this rate loudoun will be back below 10 in no time!

We use 14 day average. It’s 16%. VDH uses 7 day average. It’ll take about 35 more days at the current drop rate assuming no spikes and a .02% drop every day.

Exactly. With weather warming up and vaccines progressing, we will definitely be below 10 by Q4. They may even send K-2 back a couple of weeks before spring break.

I fully believe we will be back by Q4 but let’s stop with this nonsense of “weather warming” (it’s January 21) and “vaccines progressing” (they’re stalled in Loudoun and the interim superintendent says they don’t know when they’ll get more and it’ll be weeks til staff all get first vaccine. There’s no need to exaggerate.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s the PPR and case status as of today ?

16%

It was 16.2 actually.

Loudoun is at 15.3 percent today on the VDH website for positivity rate. Fairfax is 12.1.

Serious and gross data manipulation is happening at VDH.

Truth no longer matters. Only agendas do.

You have absolutely zero evidence of that other then the numbers not being what you personally want them to be.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s the PPR and case status as of today ?

16%

It was 16.2 actually.

Loudoun is at 15.3 percent today on the VDH website for positivity rate. Fairfax is 12.1.

At this rate loudoun will be back below 10 in no time!

We use 14 day average. It’s 16%. VDH uses 7 day average. It’ll take about 35 more days at the current drop rate assuming no spikes and a .02% drop every day.

Exactly. With weather warming up and vaccines progressing, we will definitely be below 10 by Q4. They may even send K-2 back a couple of weeks before spring break.

These are literally the metrics the board pulls and uses. It is 16%.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/4FZFY9RGP?:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y&:showVizHome=no

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s the PPR and case status as of today ?

16%

It was 16.2 actually.

Loudoun is at 15.3 percent today on the VDH website for positivity rate. Fairfax is 12.1.

At this rate loudoun will be back below 10 in no time!

We use 14 day average. It’s 16%. VDH uses 7 day average. It’ll take about 35 more days at the current drop rate assuming no spikes and a .02% drop every day.

To see the 14 day average, use the VDH page “School Metrics” found here: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/key-measures/pandemic-metrics/school-metrics/

When you open the page, Accomack county will automatically be displayed. Click on it under select locality and select the county you want to see.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s the PPR and case status as of today ?

16%

It was 16.2 actually.

Loudoun is at 15.3 percent today on the VDH website for positivity rate. Fairfax is 12.1.

At this rate loudoun will be back below 10 in no time!

We use 14 day average. It’s 16%. VDH uses 7 day average. It’ll take about 35 more days at the current drop rate assuming no spikes and a .02% drop every day.

If we get another spike here and there we’ll start Q4 virtually too.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s the PPR and case status as of today ?

16%

It was 16.2 actually.

Loudoun is at 15.3 percent today on the VDH website for positivity rate. Fairfax is 12.1.

At this rate loudoun will be back below 10 in no time!

We use 14 day average. It’s 16%. VDH uses 7 day average. It’ll take about 35 more days at the current drop rate assuming no spikes and a .02% drop every day.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What’s the PPR and case status as of today ?

16%

It was 16.2 actually.

Loudoun is at 15.3 percent today on the VDH website for positivity rate. Fairfax is 12.1.

Serious and gross data manipulation is happening at VDH.

Truth no longer matters. Only agendas do.

Anonymous wrote:I don’t understand how anyone in public thinks they are going back this year with what teachers unions have done with total impunity.

What do you mean? We’re not going to have in-person teaching in LCPS and FCPS?