Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:41
Subject: Re:Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
Nope. And I don't even mind the result, I just think the metrics are goofy, the reasoning opaque, the date incomplete, and his assessment of the costs of closure half-assed. I wouldn't necessarily mind continuing the stay-at-home order in MoCo if I had any confidence in his methodology, but I don't. And what's more I feel like the "stay closed" crowds are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in his approach, which makes me even less confident that were are going to have a competent response.
I totally agree. Moreover, if people would actually LOOK at the dashboard (which I do every day) they would see that we are progressing on ALL metrics except for acute care bed utilization getting down to pre-pandemic levels, which is a ridiculous standard.
I want to re-open, and we should do so carefully, but I don't think looking at ICU beds to make the call is ridiculous. If the cases surge again, we do not want to be in a place where there are few ICU beds available, and not just for patients with covid. The utilization threshold rate is 70%. Is that pre-pandemic rate? I don't know.
The pre pandemic levels were 50 to 60%. We too few ICU beds for a crisis or disaster situation.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:39
Subject: Re:Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
Nope. And I don't even mind the result, I just think the metrics are goofy, the reasoning opaque, the date incomplete, and his assessment of the costs of closure half-assed. I wouldn't necessarily mind continuing the stay-at-home order in MoCo if I had any confidence in his methodology, but I don't. And what's more I feel like the "stay closed" crowds are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in his approach, which makes me even less confident that were are going to have a competent response.
I totally agree. Moreover, if people would actually LOOK at the dashboard (which I do every day) they would see that we are progressing on ALL metrics except for acute care bed utilization getting down to pre-pandemic levels, which is a ridiculous standard.
I want to re-open, and we should do so carefully, but I don't think looking at ICU beds to make the call is ridiculous. If the cases surge again, we do not want to be in a place where there are few ICU beds available, and not just for patients with covid. The utilization threshold rate is 70%. Is that pre-pandemic rate? I don't know.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:36
Subject: Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
He can’t hold out much longer, despite data that supports a more cautious opening, because it will be too much pressure.
Not his fault.
The caution should be directed at the nursing homes, and everyone knows that. He looks ridiculous.
I strongly disagree. This has been explained ad nauseam. Nursing homes are part of the community, you cannot pretend they’re in their own bubble.
Are you suggesting that nursing home employees leave the families —including their school age children— and move into the nursing home faculties until we have a vaccine? Because that is the only way they can isolate.
Shutting down camps and pools and schools is just wrong for our society. Nursing homes can isolate.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:35
Subject: Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Elrich is absolutely ruining his career over this. So smarmy.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:22
Subject: Re:Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:.I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
Nope. And I don't even mind the result, I just think the metrics are goofy, the reasoning opaque, the date incomplete, and his assessment of the costs of closure half-assed. I wouldn't necessarily mind continuing the stay-at-home order in MoCo if I had any confidence in his methodology, but I don't. And what's more I feel like the "stay closed" crowds are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in his approach, which makes me even less confident that were are going to have a competent response
I totally agree. Moreover, if people would actually LOOK at the dashboard (which I do every day) they would see that we are progressing on ALL metrics except for acute care bed utilization getting down to pre-pandemic levels, which is a ridiculous standard.
Also. Futility is a thing. If all is open to our north, to our south, to our east and our west--c'mon, maintaining a stay-at-home order will do nothing but grind our last local businesses into the ground* with no conceivable public heath benefit.
*And I'm an anxious teleworking 1%-er and even I recognize this.
Exactly. My friend lives in NoVA, which has been closed. I asked her what she did over the weekend. “Oh my boyfriend and I went to a restaurant in West Virginia.”
People can go to other places, and are doing so.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:20
Subject: Re:Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
.I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
Nope. And I don't even mind the result, I just think the metrics are goofy, the reasoning opaque, the date incomplete, and his assessment of the costs of closure half-assed. I wouldn't necessarily mind continuing the stay-at-home order in MoCo if I had any confidence in his methodology, but I don't. And what's more I feel like the "stay closed" crowds are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in his approach, which makes me even less confident that were are going to have a competent response
I totally agree. Moreover, if people would actually LOOK at the dashboard (which I do every day) they would see that we are progressing on ALL metrics except for acute care bed utilization getting down to pre-pandemic levels, which is a ridiculous standard.
Also. Futility is a thing. If all is open to our north, to our south, to our east and our west--c'mon, maintaining a stay-at-home order will do nothing but grind our last local businesses into the ground* with no conceivable public heath benefit.
*And I'm an anxious teleworking 1%-er and even I recognize this.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:19
Subject: Re:Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
Nope. And I don't even mind the result, I just think the metrics are goofy, the reasoning opaque, the date incomplete, and his assessment of the costs of closure half-assed. I wouldn't necessarily mind continuing the stay-at-home order in MoCo if I had any confidence in his methodology, but I don't. And what's more I feel like the "stay closed" crowds are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in his approach, which makes me even less confident that were are going to have a competent response.
I totally agree. Moreover, if people would actually LOOK at the dashboard (which I do every day) they would see that we are progressing on ALL metrics except for acute care bed utilization getting down to pre-pandemic levels, which is a ridiculous standard.
I have worked in data modeling and analytics for over 25 years; study medical research. This is not real data science, just something I could do quickly in Power BI. There is no science committee, no data science, just a "I guess". Compare that to Hogan's committee, Hopkins science, Scott Gottlieb, who is speaking everyday on research, nuanced looks at trends (and reasons for data outliars). While you may not agree with all the points (I don't), I can follow the methodology and science.
I will give credit some credit to Moco that we are at least able to see some of the data now including positivity rates (Though interesting there is no transparency on the nursing homes - even though just 5 of the NH accounted for the 25% of the deaths in Moco. Sigh)
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:03
Subject: Re:Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
Nope. And I don't even mind the result, I just think the metrics are goofy, the reasoning opaque, the date incomplete, and his assessment of the costs of closure half-assed. I wouldn't necessarily mind continuing the stay-at-home order in MoCo if I had any confidence in his methodology, but I don't. And what's more I feel like the "stay closed" crowds are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in his approach, which makes me even less confident that were are going to have a competent response.
I totally agree. Moreover, if people would actually LOOK at the dashboard (which I do every day) they would see that we are progressing on ALL metrics except for acute care bed utilization getting down to pre-pandemic levels, which is a ridiculous standard.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:02
Subject: Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
It's fine to be cautious but he has no plan. Hogan has a team of experts from Johns Hopkins and UMD who established the metrics and are advising on his decisions. Hogan and Gayle look like a couple of clowns with their data dashboard.
The metrics are asinine. For example, why do you have to have a consecutive 14 day decline in some of the metrics? There could be a huge decline of 50 percent or more over a 14 day period with one or two outlier days that saw an increase but the trend is the same. Noise in the data could cause us never to reopen. That's why there's such a thing as inferential statistics.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 18:02
Subject: Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
He can’t hold out much longer, despite data that supports a more cautious opening, because it will be too much pressure.
Not his fault.
The caution should be directed at the nursing homes, and everyone knows that. He looks ridiculous.
I strongly disagree. This has been explained ad nauseam. Nursing homes are part of the community, you cannot pretend they’re in their own bubble.
Look at page 27 of Hogan’s reopening plan. He specifies that nursing homes are NOT community transmission, nor are other congregate facilities.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 17:58
Subject: Re:Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
"date" --> "data"
Anonymous
05/27/2020 17:57
Subject: Re:Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
Nope. And I don't even mind the result, I just think the metrics are goofy, the reasoning opaque, the date incomplete, and his assessment of the costs of closure half-assed. I wouldn't necessarily mind continuing the stay-at-home order in MoCo if I had any confidence in his methodology, but I don't. And what's more I feel like the "stay closed" crowds are glossing over the glaring weaknesses in his approach, which makes me even less confident that were are going to have a competent response.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 17:56
Subject: Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
He can’t hold out much longer, despite data that supports a more cautious opening, because it will be too much pressure.
Not his fault.
The caution should be directed at the nursing homes, and everyone knows that. He looks ridiculous.
I strongly disagree. This has been explained ad nauseam. Nursing homes are part of the community, you cannot pretend they’re in their own bubble.
Shutting down camps and pools and schools is just wrong for our society. Nursing homes can isolate.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 17:52
Subject: Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
He can’t hold out much longer, despite data that supports a more cautious opening, because it will be too much pressure.
Not his fault.
The caution should be directed at the nursing homes, and everyone knows that. He looks ridiculous.
I strongly disagree. This has been explained ad nauseam. Nursing homes are part of the community, you cannot pretend they’re in their own bubble.
Anonymous
05/27/2020 17:48
Subject: Gov. Hogan confrerence at 5 pm, 5/27
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:I support Elrich’s caution and prioritization of public health and hope he holds strong.
He can’t hold out much longer, despite data that supports a more cautious opening, because it will be too much pressure.
Not his fault.
The caution should be directed at the nursing homes, and everyone knows that. He looks ridiculous.