Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 09:08     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
You'll see some essentials open up first week or so of May. By June 1, you'll see quite a bit of movement on this front.

Weather + 2 weeks of social distancing + testing = a vast number of non-essentials open by June 1.

I think schools are done.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 09:08     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:Things aren’t really flattening the way it was hoped. Nightmarish.


Eye roll. You don’t understand much do you?
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:57     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I feel like they can open up stores, etc. while the majority of people work from home. I work for a massive company that has one (or more) offices in every state and I would wager that 90% of us can easily work from home, the other 10% can limit their time in the office or easily social distance while there due to the fact that many others can WFH.


Go ahead and open the stores and restaurants but they will still suffer. It's going to be a while before traffic is more than 25% of normal.


THIS. Until consumers feel safe this economy remains in neutral or first gear.


Yes. Who would go to any of those places just because it is opened. Do you remember what happened before the restaurants were issued mandatory closures? There was zero people yet they were still free to move about.



Trumpers would go. Let them go while the rest of us stay put. They can frolic in their germs.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:56     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Stay at home




I'm about to go wildin' if sh1t doesn't semi-open up soon. The monotony is driving me nuts and I have had a medical emergency to break it up. Still going stir crazy. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.


Stay at home and go get medical help if needed. Stir crazy and bored such a first world problem. And it beats rolling the dice to fight for a ventilator or worst.





I don't think you grasp how difficult this is. I don't know your set up, but I have no natural areas in walking distance and my house is small. My pay was cut 20%. My kids miss school and friends. I've been mostly at home and in my neighborhood since March 10. The emergency was the only time I've been in anywhere in weeks and now I'm jacked up because of my health. Mental health is the next thing to go and, hence, I will likely run amok here in a minute,



Try yoga or something to cut your percolating anxiety.

Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:56     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:I have a background n data analytics, modeling and actuarial science. so I've been tracking the data (cases, deaths, hospitalizations, testing) daily for the DMV - Maryland (state, county / zip level), DC, and VA (state, county). I don't profess to be an expert in this field at all - but I just like to see the trends myself and not rely on the local reporting

I can see why Hogan is saying signs to be cautiously optimistic - there are some positive trends compared to the early high rates of growth - but we are not in a downward trend overall So the 14 day clock for phase 1 can't start. IMHE predicts peak in a few days for MD- hope they are right; they have tended to be right on peak time; even if off on hospital resources. I'm not sure that Hogan uses that model - but he has the hopkins team. (Note: IMHE updates every few days).

VA data is more messy on reporting, but still no downward trend. Their IMHE predicted peak is still 11+ days off. DC no downward trend. Bowser press conference did not use the IMHE model and has a much later peak than IMHE. those are all projections anyway. The data has to show a consistent downward trend for 14 days - which make rational sense as you can't tell you had a peak until a few days post it and you don't want another wave to resurge.

One of the questions - unknown -if a state in the DMV is ready to open early, will they still do so given other peaks around them. i.e, Will Maryland fully open if DC and VA are still climbing?





Virginia is much more difficult to get testing than in DC or MD.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:55     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:Nothing is opening up anytime soon. My dh’s federal building just finally closed to everyone this week, and those who were in the office last week are currently quarantined because someone who was there just tested positive.

How on earth are they talking about opening up when things are still shutting down and 2,000 people in the US are dying each day? It’s too soon.



It was 4500 people yesterday.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:53     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Stay at home




I'm about to go wildin' if sh1t doesn't semi-open up soon. The monotony is driving me nuts and I have had a medical emergency to break it up. Still going stir crazy. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.


Stay at home and go get medical help if needed. Stir crazy and bored such a first world problem. And it beats rolling the dice to fight for a ventilator or worst.





I don't think you grasp how difficult this is. I don't know your set up, but I have no natural areas in walking distance and my house is small. My pay was cut 20%. My kids miss school and friends. I've been mostly at home and in my neighborhood since March 10. The emergency was the only time I've been in anywhere in weeks and now I'm jacked up because of my health. Mental health is the next thing to go and, hence, I will likely run amok here in a minute,
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:51     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Ohio (praised for its handling of this whole thing) is going to start gradual phased reopening on May 1st. I think most states won’t be too far behind. I’d give this area another month. Mid-May.

YES, we will have more Coronavirus cases when we start to gradually reopen. That’s to be expected. There’s no putting the cat back in the bag on this one. There may also be a period when hospitals get close to capacity and we need more shutdowns for a period of time. That’s to be expected too.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:44     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
VA and MD will have to do it together because of DC.

States are forming regional pacts to control further spread.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:27     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Stay at home




I'm about to go wildin' if sh1t doesn't semi-open up soon. The monotony is driving me nuts and I have had a medical emergency to break it up. Still going stir crazy. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.


Stay at home and go get medical help if needed. Stir crazy and bored such a first world problem. And it beats rolling the dice to fight for a ventilator or worst.


For those who are bored, try taking a cruise? Check out the websites - lots to do when onboard.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:24     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Stay at home




I'm about to go wildin' if sh1t doesn't semi-open up soon. The monotony is driving me nuts and I have had a medical emergency to break it up. Still going stir crazy. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.


Stay at home and go get medical help if needed. Stir crazy and bored such a first world problem. And it beats rolling the dice to fight for a ventilator or worst.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 08:08     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
This is an awful situation, but as a species we have survived much worse. It would make the most sense for the world to come together say everything will be shut down for the same 3 weeks minus absolute necessities (food, meds, doctors, emergency building repairs) and allow this thing to play out simultaneously no matter if you’re in a place that has a high infection rate or not. Forgive all debts during that time so we are all on an even playing field. That seems like the only way to truly get this thing under control. Until then, we are going to have to practice mindfulness bc this is a sh%^ show.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:56     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Things aren’t really flattening the way it was hoped. Nightmarish.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:54     Subject: So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Nothing is opening up anytime soon. My dh’s federal building just finally closed to everyone this week, and those who were in the office last week are currently quarantined because someone who was there just tested positive.

How on earth are they talking about opening up when things are still shutting down and 2,000 people in the US are dying each day? It’s too soon.


People who clamoring to flip the switch don’t know the science and they have not been up close and personal with COVID-19. Their attitude will change.


Summarize “the science” to which you’re referring, please.
Anonymous
Post 04/17/2020 07:53     Subject: Re:So how far is the DMV from Phase 1 opening?
Anonymous wrote:Stay at home




I'm about to go wildin' if sh1t doesn't semi-open up soon. The monotony is driving me nuts and I have had a medical emergency to break it up. Still going stir crazy. I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.