Anonymous
05/31/2019 12:18
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:PITI on $1.2m home with 10% down is $7k/month ($84k/year). Add in another 1% per year for maintenance/upkeep and it's just under $100k/year. That's ~ 50% of after tax take home income on $300k HHI. If you physician-level stability in your jobs and no recessions ever hit and you never face illness, lawsuits, or unemployment, then maybe it works. But it would be too stressful for me personally.
1) assuming 20% down. If you can't muster that you won't get premium loan treatment, you'll have PMI, can you even do that any more at this price range? That's a different ball game
2) so 800k mortgage, PITI about 5k per month
3) nobody spends 10k a year on average maintaining a 2,500-3,500SF SF shit shack around here. That guesstimate (1%) is from a bygonr era when houses cost 200K. I've never spent more than 5k in any single year ever in this area on 30 years. That's like worst case scenario of your HVAC failing.
If you lose a job or get sued, what differnece does it make what your mortgage is give or take a grand? Silly concern.
I suppose if this hypothetical couple is buying a "shit shack" and is content to run it further into the ground, then they can skip a lot of maintenance costs and eventually sell it for the land value. If you actually buy a house you're proud to live in and keep it well-maintained, which I'll grant you that not everyone does, then 1% per year is a conservative estimate.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 12:18
Subject: Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
I have been to Crystal City it ain't in China. I live in MoCo and have a parking spot next to Bethesda metro.
Metro has wifi and cell service most of way. Hardly need to move to VA. Folks in DC or anyone near metro in MD are fine
Metro has wifi and cell service most of way. Hardly need to move to VA. Folks in DC or anyone near metro in MD are fine
Anonymous
05/31/2019 11:39
Subject: Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.
+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.
Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.
No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).
That's gotta be on a good day. One little fender bender, and we're closer to 2 hours. Trust me, I know.
You’re assuming everyone in Maryland needs to drive or lives in MoCo. A train ride from Takoma, Silver Spring or Forest Glen to Amazon is around 30 to 40 minutes...the same or less time as it would be from Vienna or anywhere on the Silver Line from Tysons or further out. Anyone coming from the Green Line stations in PG would have a similar commute.
As for driving, if you live in Fort Washington or somewhere near there it is a much shorter drive to Crystal City than coming from a lot of Fairfax (Reston, Oakton, etc) and you don’t have to pay tolls.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 10:13
Subject: Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.
+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.
Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.
No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).
That's gotta be on a good day. One little fender bender, and we're closer to 2 hours. Trust me, I know.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 10:03
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:PITI on $1.2m home with 10% down is $7k/month ($84k/year). Add in another 1% per year for maintenance/upkeep and it's just under $100k/year. That's ~ 50% of after tax take home income on $300k HHI. If you physician-level stability in your jobs and no recessions ever hit and you never face illness, lawsuits, or unemployment, then maybe it works. But it would be too stressful for me personally.
1) assuming 20% down. If you can't muster that you won't get premium loan treatment, you'll have PMI, can you even do that any more at this price range? That's a different ball game
2) so 800k mortgage, PITI about 5k per month
3) nobody spends 10k a year on average maintaining a 2,500-3,500SF SF shit shack around here. That guesstimate (1%) is from a bygonr era when houses cost 200K. I've never spent more than 5k in any single year ever in this area on 30 years. That's like worst case scenario of your HVAC failing.
If you lose a job or get sued, what differnece does it make what your mortgage is give or take a grand? Silly concern.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 09:57
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
PITI on $1.2m home with 10% down is $7k/month ($84k/year). Add in another 1% per year for maintenance/upkeep and it's just under $100k/year. That's ~ 50% of after tax take home income on $300k HHI. If you physician-level stability in your jobs and no recessions ever hit and you never face illness, lawsuits, or unemployment, then maybe it works. But it would be too stressful for me personally.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 09:20
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...
A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).
Just getting even better now.
You're right; this time it's different!
I see what you are trying to do.
I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.
I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive
That's great but how many GS15's are there vs. lower GS employees. Do you really think all Amazon employees can afford a million dollar house... we can't.
I assume you are current AWS employs, making $120k salary with stock would be GS15. If spouse is say a teacher, yeah that’s hard
But the 25000 jobs will have a median of $150k, which again is GS15 equivalent. It’s honestly depressing, but people are pairing up with two higher incomes and we have the two income trap in force.
You don't have a good grasp on AWS salaries or how they work. You'd need an HHI of at least $400K to buy a million dollar house comfortable. You'd have to be foolish to get it on 1/2 that. And, with the stock, you have to pay taxes as soon as it vests and you get it over time, not the same amount yearly and only over 4 years so you may or may not keep your salary when they do a new offer (or what ever year term they give you). And, you'd have to be even more foolish to sell your Amazon stock right now.
Wut? We have just under 300K HHI in a 950K house, two maxed out 401k(s), car payment, before/after care expenses, and it's fine, still have 10K/mo to burn after all those expenses. We don't go to fancy restaurants every night, but who has time for that with kids anyway? We pretty much do what we want and don't feel in any way cash constrained. And every year our income goes up. We easily qualified for 1.25M when house shopping.
Yeah, you need some cash for 20% down payment/reserves to begin with, but you probably have that in your last house if you're looking at this price range. No way you "need" at least 400K for a $1M house.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 09:10
Subject: Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.
+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.
Per the JBG Smith negotiators that work with Amazon, roughly 80% of Amazon employees walk or take mass transit to work each day. So VRE and metro are possible but they are expecting the lions share to live inside the beltway and closer to National Landing
Yea, ok... per those folks who are not actually doing the commute or work. No way my spouse could walk or talk mass transit to his Amazon job. Nor, would we ever move to that part of VA for a lot of reasons, including money. Everyone we know lives far out VA and commutes in as needed.
Then I guess you’ll see your spouse on weekends? You’re making a choice to live far away from work. If you want a life outside of work, you live closer in and compromise on space and/or schools to be able to afford it, like the rest of us. Or your spouse should look for a job closer to where you live. Driving in isn’t going to get any easier or better, so you have some thinking to do. If you hurry, you can probably afford a nice SFH home in PG county inside the Beltway along the Green/Yellow line that’s close to all the amenities around College Park/Hyattsville and transit.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 08:59
Subject: Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.
+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.
Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.
No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).
Anonymous
05/31/2019 08:56
Subject: Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.
+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.
Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 08:26
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...
A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).
Just getting even better now.
You're right; this time it's different!
I see what you are trying to do.
I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.
I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive
That's great but how many GS15's are there vs. lower GS employees. Do you really think all Amazon employees can afford a million dollar house... we can't.
I assume you are current AWS employs, making $120k salary with stock would be GS15. If spouse is say a teacher, yeah that’s hard
But the 25000 jobs will have a median of $150k, which again is GS15 equivalent. It’s honestly depressing, but people are pairing up with two higher incomes and we have the two income trap in force.
You don't have a good grasp on AWS salaries or how they work. You'd need an HHI of at least $400K to buy a million dollar house comfortable. You'd have to be foolish to get it on 1/2 that. And, with the stock, you have to pay taxes as soon as it vests and you get it over time, not the same amount yearly and only over 4 years so you may or may not keep your salary when they do a new offer (or what ever year term they give you). And, you'd have to be even more foolish to sell your Amazon stock right now.
Yes, you have to first save up a 20% downpayment, but on a $200k income zillow is recommending a $1.2M home. yes, they are aggressive, but hardly insane to have a 4x debt-to-income.
https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-calculator/house-affordability/
Anyone that thinks a $200K salary is enough to swing a $1.2M home is cray cray.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 08:05
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...
A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).
Just getting even better now.
You're right; this time it's different!
I see what you are trying to do.
I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.
I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive
That's great but how many GS15's are there vs. lower GS employees. Do you really think all Amazon employees can afford a million dollar house... we can't.
I assume you are current AWS employs, making $120k salary with stock would be GS15. If spouse is say a teacher, yeah that’s hard
But the 25000 jobs will have a median of $150k, which again is GS15 equivalent. It’s honestly depressing, but people are pairing up with two higher incomes and we have the two income trap in force.
You don't have a good grasp on AWS salaries or how they work. You'd need an HHI of at least $400K to buy a million dollar house comfortable. You'd have to be foolish to get it on 1/2 that. And, with the stock, you have to pay taxes as soon as it vests and you get it over time, not the same amount yearly and only over 4 years so you may or may not keep your salary when they do a new offer (or what ever year term they give you). And, you'd have to be even more foolish to sell your Amazon stock right now.
Yes, you have to first save up a 20% downpayment, but on a $200k income zillow is recommending a $1.2M home. yes, they are aggressive, but hardly insane to have a 4x debt-to-income.
https://www.zillow.com/mortgage-calculator/house-affordability/
Anonymous
05/31/2019 02:26
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...
A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).
Just getting even better now.
You're right; this time it's different!
I see what you are trying to do.
I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.
I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive
That's great but how many GS15's are there vs. lower GS employees. Do you really think all Amazon employees can afford a million dollar house... we can't.
I assume you are current AWS employs, making $120k salary with stock would be GS15. If spouse is say a teacher, yeah that’s hard
But the 25000 jobs will have a median of $150k, which again is GS15 equivalent. It’s honestly depressing, but people are pairing up with two higher incomes and we have the two income trap in force.
You don't have a good grasp on AWS salaries or how they work. You'd need an HHI of at least $400K to buy a million dollar house comfortable. You'd have to be foolish to get it on 1/2 that. And, with the stock, you have to pay taxes as soon as it vests and you get it over time, not the same amount yearly and only over 4 years so you may or may not keep your salary when they do a new offer (or what ever year term they give you). And, you'd have to be even more foolish to sell your Amazon stock right now.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 02:21
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...
A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).
Just getting even better now.
You're right; this time it's different!
I see what you are trying to do.
I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.
I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive
That's great but how many GS15's are there vs. lower GS employees. Do you really think all Amazon employees can afford a million dollar house... we can't.
I assume you are current AWS employs, making $120k salary with stock would be GS15. If spouse is say a teacher, yeah that’s hard
But the 25000 jobs will have a median of $150k, which again is GS15 equivalent. It’s honestly depressing, but people are pairing up with two higher incomes and we have the two income trap in force.
Anonymous
05/31/2019 01:01
Subject: Re:Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs
Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...
A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).
Just getting even better now.
You're right; this time it's different!
I see what you are trying to do.
I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.
I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive
That's great but how many GS15's are there vs. lower GS employees. Do you really think all Amazon employees can afford a million dollar house... we can't.