18% probability PER MONTH translates to a cumulative probability of conceiving over a year, by month:

Month Cumulative Probability of Conceiving
1 18%
2 33%
3 45%
4 55%
5 63%
6 70%
7 75%
8 80%
9 83%
10 86%
11 89%
12 91%


Basic high school math. The likelihood of NOT conceiving is (1- prob per month) ^ number of months. 1 minus that is the cumulative probability of conceiving.

Here it is for 30% probability per month:
Montly Prob 30%

Month Cumulative Probability of Conceiving
1 30%
2 51%
3 66%
4 76%
5 83%
6 88%
7 92%
8 94%
9 96%
10 97%
11 98%
12 99%

I'm 36, pregnant with my second the second month of trying, and will deliver a month before my 37th birthday.

My healthcare provider reinforced that the age 35 AMA threshold does not spell doom for women who hope to expand their families in their mid- to late-30s. Data suggests that 37 and 40 are better turning points, in that rates of infertility, fetal chromosomal abnormalities, and miscarriage rates rise at/after those ages. An evidence-based resource: https://expectingscience.com/the-best-of-expecting-science/

Other books/resources that helped calm my mind: The Impatient Woman's Guide to Getting Pregnant by Jean Twenge and Taking Charge of Your Fertility by Toni Weschler.

I did multiple times but only the last one stuck so egg quality was definitely declining.

It took 7 cycles at age 37 and that ended in twin blighted ovums. Then 2 cycles again at age 37 which was another blighted ovum. Three 3 cycles at age 38 which turned out to be ectopic and then 2 cycles later (still 38) I got pregnant again. I'm currently 9 months along with nothing bought for baby because I'm still too nervous to get excited.

Got pregnant with my first being a bit careless (we were going to try in the next few months) just after 39th bday. Wanted a second at late 41, but discovered DH had severe MF and IVF over 40 far from a sure thing. Fertility declines drastically over 40, particularly the quality of eggs (i.e., # of genetically normal ones). Whether it takes the nose dive at 40, 41, 42 or whenever depends on the person. I'm lucky, but it wasn't easy. A friend of mine who had her first at 38 tried again at 40-41 could get pregnant easily, but had 5 early miscarriages before deciding to stop. So it's not just about getting pregnant...

Definitely don't be too worried at 36, but if you want more than 1, you should be planning to be sure you're able to get the embryos sooner rather than later. Maybe that means having kids close together, or maybe that means doing IVF and freezing some for later so you can space your kids out.

This forum has a mixture of women who conceived naturally and through IVF.

https://achildafter40.com/a-child-after-40-online/

Anonymous wrote:I think it’s 18% each month you try, right? I think it’s 20-25% in your twenties

This is the correct answer and why the periods of time before intervention is recommended are what they are.

https://www.avawomen.com/avaworld/chances-getting-pregnant/

Anonymous wrote:I did at 37 and 39.

Same. For my 2nd & 3rd. Can’t remember how many months it took ... I think 2 or 3? I was tracking ovulation with temps for my 3rd.

Practically every woman I know well enough that they would tell me this info: friends, sister in laws, etc. it’s quite common.

Yes, 3 times:

36 - 1st try
38 - took about 8 months, conceived on 1st cycle with Clomid but no other interventions after fertility workup despite bloodwork not looking great (high FSH, low AMH)
40 - not trying - just assumed it would never happen!

Statistics exist for a reason. They are better at telling the truth than a bunch of anecdotes on an anonymous message board.

Anonymous wrote:Well, I had a child at 33 and wasn't able to conceive again. No detectable infertility or autoimmune issues, male or female.

So YMMV.

Unexplained secondary infertility is so damn frustrating. (I’m the poster from above). We really thought it was not going to happen for us, especially after the m/c from iui. Then, bam - pregnant as we were considering a last ditch effort with iui. I honestly couldn’t believe it. I thought my body was just messing with me when my period didn’t show. I shook the test because I thought it was malfunctioning.

I am sorry it hasn’t happened for you, but crazy things do happen sometimes. I have a 13 year old and a 4 year old to prove it.

I had to do math to answer this. I was 37. It took 3 or 4 months, I honestly don't remember.

37, first try, 4th baby - it’s the one we conceived the fastest much to my surprise!

Three times, 1st try each time.

Conceived first at 40; delivered at 41. Total surprise.