Anonymous wrote:Where do the angry racist folks go? They used to be Democrats, pre-1964, then Republicans after the 'Southern Strategy' took hold...where would they go next?

Anonymous wrote:Sally Bradshaw, longtime Republican advisor and principal author of GOP post-2012 strategy analysis, leaving GOP and maybe voting for Clinton

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/08/01/sally-bradshaw-senior-bush-confidant-leaves-the-gop/

Sally Bradshaw made the announcement in an interview with CNN, saying that despite decades of work on behalf of GOP candidates -- most prominently Bush, the former Florida governor, and his father's 1988 presidential campaign -- she might vote for Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate, if the race in her home state of Florida is close.

Bradshaw told CNN in an email that the GOP is "at a crossroads and have nominated a total narcissist -- a misogynist -- a bigot." "This is a time when country has to take priority over political parties. Donald Trump cannot be elected president," Bradshaw wrote.

"This election cycle is a test," she added in her email. "As much as I don't want another four years of Obama's policies, I can't look my children in the eye and tell them I voted for Donald Trump. I can't tell them to love their neighbor and treat others the way they wanted to be treated, and then vote for Donald Trump. I won't do it."

Sally Bradshaw made the announcement in an interview with CNN, saying that despite decades of work on behalf of GOP candidates -- most prominently Bush, the former Florida governor, and his father's 1988 presidential campaign -- she might vote for Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate, if the race in her home state of Florida is close.

Bradshaw told CNN in an email that the GOP is "at a crossroads and have nominated a total narcissist -- a misogynist -- a bigot." "This is a time when country has to take priority over political parties. Donald Trump cannot be elected president," Bradshaw wrote.

"This election cycle is a test," she added in her email. "As much as I don't want another four years of Obama's policies, I can't look my children in the eye and tell them I voted for Donald Trump. I can't tell them to love their neighbor and treat others the way they wanted to be treated, and then vote for Donald Trump. I won't do it."

Anonymous wrote:I'm afraid it won't matter. I know so many angry middle class guys voting for Trump

No one who is actually powerful and intelligent, and not just pandering, will not be voting for him.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you are showing me a list of republicans that have put their own needs and desires above the people, I agree.

A Republican publicly endorsing Clinton is putting his own needs and desires above the country? It's actually putting his own needs and desires above the party.

Anonymous wrote:Where are you guys getting these lists? I want to link to them on my facebook page.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As to the main point, no matter what, trump has a much narrower path than Hillary. This is the same country which voted for Obama twice and he won very comfortably in the end. Where do the republicans get their votes? Dems will beat trump with his Made in China and him still recruiting foreigners(as of 3 days ago) at the cost of american workers. Besides he is a gift that never stops giving. Structurally this country is tilted left and that won't change in this election. Trump will gain some and lose some and that is status quo. That equation only gets worse for trump as he spews for the next 100 days.

Trump's path to victory is admittedly narrow but certainly within reach. The Democrat's vulnerability is the rust belt which is why they are spending so much time there. If you look at the current polling in certain key states, there is not much separating Trump from Hillary.

Trump has to win PA - and that is within reach as even former Democratic governor Rendell said. He has to take OH and then there are a couple of states such as FL that are within reach and if gets those states and holds the ones that Romney won in 2012, he is there.

Trump's big issue is he has to win all 3 big states(PA,OH,FL) while Hillary needs just one. The issue with PA is that Philly area population increases with mostly Yankees, Jerseyans, Minorities moving into the big city area. Those are mainly progressive voters. But the middle PA voters are declining in numbers in every election cycle, some due to death but most are moving down south as manufacturing goes to TN, AL, GA, etc. On top of this demographic shift compensation that trump faces, he is losing traditional republican moderate voters and women. So it is a very long shot. Is it possible, yes, but it is not probable.

WRT OH, it has 3 big city clusters that are primarily dem voters. OH actually voted for Kasich's moderate gop by a big number. Besides, OH is not suffering as much, after the return of the auto industry. Central and West Ohio benefits from that. NE Ohio suffers the most but doesn't have as many votes to compensate for loss of kasich voters. Trump has made enemy with the worst man who will hurt him. Ohio maybe a better shot than PA, but thats not exactly great.

WRT FL, every election cycle hispanic voters(primarily PuertoRicans) increase by 3% with corresponding decline of white voters. Thousands of Puertoricans have landed in FL due to really terrible economic situation there and they don't vote like older cuban immigrants. Next gen cuban immigrants vote democratic as well. FL is going to be difficult as well.

Not to forget in another 100 days, Trump has so much time for his short fingers to tweet and his mouth to spew, driving away even more voters from him.

I agree with all your point, except Hillary doesn't need any of the three big states if she wins NC. CO, NV AND VA are already in her pockets. She doesn't even need NH or IA. Play with all the combo http://www.270towin.com/

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
As to the main point, no matter what, trump has a much narrower path than Hillary. This is the same country which voted for Obama twice and he won very comfortably in the end. Where do the republicans get their votes? Dems will beat trump with his Made in China and him still recruiting foreigners(as of 3 days ago) at the cost of american workers. Besides he is a gift that never stops giving. Structurally this country is tilted left and that won't change in this election. Trump will gain some and lose some and that is status quo. That equation only gets worse for trump as he spews for the next 100 days.

Trump's path to victory is admittedly narrow but certainly within reach. The Democrat's vulnerability is the rust belt which is why they are spending so much time there. If you look at the current polling in certain key states, there is not much separating Trump from Hillary.

Trump has to win PA - and that is within reach as even former Democratic governor Rendell said. He has to take OH and then there are a couple of states such as FL that are within reach and if gets those states and holds the ones that Romney won in 2012, he is there.

Trump's big issue is he has to win all 3 big states(PA,OH,FL) while Hillary needs just one. The issue with PA is that Philly area population increases with mostly Yankees, Jerseyans, Minorities moving into the big city area. Those are mainly progressive voters. But the middle PA voters are declining in numbers in every election cycle, some due to death but most are moving down south as manufacturing goes to TN, AL, GA, etc. On top of this demographic shift compensation that trump faces, he is losing traditional republican moderate voters and women. So it is a very long shot. Is it possible, yes, but it is not probable.

WRT OH, it has 3 big city clusters that are primarily dem voters. OH actually voted for Kasich's moderate gop by a big number. Besides, OH is not suffering as much, after the return of the auto industry. Central and West Ohio benefits from that. NE Ohio suffers the most but doesn't have as many votes to compensate for loss of kasich voters. Trump has made enemy with the worst man who will hurt him. Ohio maybe a better shot than PA, but thats not exactly great.

WRT FL, every election cycle hispanic voters(primarily PuertoRicans) increase by 3% with corresponding decline of white voters. Thousands of Puertoricans have landed in FL due to really terrible economic situation there and they don't vote like older cuban immigrants. Next gen cuban immigrants vote democratic as well. FL is going to be difficult as well.

Not to forget in another 100 days, Trump has so much time for his short fingers to tweet and his mouth to spew, driving away even more voters from him.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Republicans who have refused to endorse Donald Trump:

George HW Bush
George W Bush
Jeb Bush
Mitt Romney
Ted Cruz
Tom Delay
Karl Rove
Condoleeza Rice
Norm Coleman (Republican Senator from Minnesota)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Republican Representative from Florida)
Susan Collins (Republican Senator from Maine)
Lindsey Graham (Republican Senator from South Carolina)
Ben Sasse (Republican Senator from Nebraska)
Mark Kirk (Republican Senator from Illinois)
Mike Lee (Republican Senator from Utah)
Jeff Flake (Republican Senator from Arizona)
Dean Heller (Republican Senator from Nevada)
John Kasich
Brian Sandoval (Republican Gov from Nevada)
Charlie Baker (Republican Gov from Mass)
Rick Snyder (Republican Gov from Michigan)
Larry Hogan (Republican Gov from MD)
Susanna Martinez (Republican Gov from NM)
Bill Kristol
Ross Douthat
Erick Erickson (RedState)
Leon Wolf (RedState)
George Will
Charles Krauthammer
Joe Scarborough
Glenn Beck
Max Boot
Michael Reagan
Bret Stephens (WSJ)
Charles and David Koch
Tom Ridge (former Republican Gov of PA and Sec of Homeland Security)
J.C. Watts
Mel Martinez (former FL Sen)

Republicans who have endorsed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump:

Hank Paulson (Treasury Secretary under Bush)
Richard Armitage (Deputy Sec of State under Bush)
Brent Scrowcroft (National Security Advisor under Bush)
Larry Pressler (Republican Senator from South Dakota)
Michael Bloomberg
Houston Chronicle
Mark Cuban
Robert Kagan ("The party cannot be saved, but the country still can be.” Trump "is how fascism comes to America.”)
Christine Todd Whitman (former Republican Gov of NJ and Head of EPA)


Who did I miss?

None of this matters. Trump's supporters love the fact that the "Republican establishment" hates him, because they hate the Republican establishment too. Do you have any understanding of why Trump won the nomination?

Do you know how the electoral college works? Did you know that you can win the popular vote but not actually win? Just ask Gore.

True. And the electoral map, which already favors the democrats, looks nearly impossible for Trump. Just ask the New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/us/politics/donald-trump-presidential-race.html?_r=0

PS: if you are a Republican who might lose Arizona, it's time to be very alarmed.