Op, the point is that you will not beat the market over a sustained period of time (20-30 years). There are studies on this - 90%+ of active mutual fund managers fail to beat the market over a long period. These are people who do this as their job, day in day out. You think you are going to do better than them?

You're doing this for the excitement, fine. You aren't going to achieve your early retirement goal. I'd argue that controlling your destiny means maximizing your investment returns over the long term. You aren't doing that. You're chasing the rush of 16% returns in a year when the S&P has returned 8-9%. I hope that gives you a lot of enjoyment.

Anonymous wrote:
im the PP. I put in a transfer before noon. 100% C from 100% G. Fingers crossed. I am too scared of the S fund. What do you know about the L funds? I think I read somewhere the number of transfers are limited.

If you did this on Thursday before noon, you are golden. If you did this on Friday before noon, you just made a gigantic mistake.

A 4:1 to 3:1 mix of C:S replicates the overall stock market close enough. L is too conservative for someone under 40.

Anonymous wrote:You all are idiots. Put it in a long-term fund and forget it. Go live your lives and come back in 40 years and you'll be rich

No risk, no reward. Some people like to control their own destiny, while other people like to sit in the stands and cheer.

Anonymous wrote:Last time I went to Vegas I made a tidy sum at the craps table. That in no way suggests I am a great gambler or even made a smart move that one time. I gambled, and that time I won.

If you sold before the brexit, you gambled, and this time you won. Though you only win if you get back in at the right time, so it is yet to be seen if you win or not. The smart move is just to invest and leave it. Anything else lowers your expected return and is the equivalent of playing craps - that doesn't mean you will lose by playing, but it does mean you are just gambling.

OP here and I wholeheartedly agree with you. I laid out these exact thoughts in my very first post in the thread. It is 100% gambling, but I would argue that there's no house that's pulling the vig involved in this game. It is only my mind making the decisions and my hard-earned (and maxed out) TSP contributions doing the work. I am at peace with whatever happens and don't lose much sleep over any of it nowadays. Also, I'm that one asshole at the craps table making the don't pass bet while laying max odds whenever a 4 or 10 comes out. Every game needs both a winner and a loser.

I know I'm going to have a great pension and social security will be there too. I also have a paid-off house and plan to trade up from here on out with very reasonable mortgages (<20% HHI) if need be. Playing this game is my early retirement pipedream in the hopes of riding off into the sunset on SEPP. If I fail, retiring at 57 isn't too shabby either.

Last time I went to Vegas I made a tidy sum at the craps table. That in no way suggests I am a great gambler or even made a smart move that one time. I gambled, and that time I won.

If you sold before the brexit, you gambled, and this time you won. Though you only win if you get back in at the right time, so it is yet to be seen if you win or not. The smart move is just to invest and leave it. Anything else lowers your expected return and is the equivalent of playing craps - that doesn't mean you will lose by playing, but it does mean you are just gambling.