Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think that using median growth percentile instead of raw test scores is both a good and flawed measure. This is the best explanation I've found of it and includes a (dated) comparison of DCPS and DCPCS:
http://www.urban.org/urban-wire/how-good-are-dcs-schools
If there is more recent DCPS data, I'd love to see it.
Succinct version:
A typical school will have a median growth percentile of 50, while 70 means a school is doing substantially better than a typical school and 30 means a school is doing substantially worse. So we can say one school is better than another if its MGP is higher, meaning that at least the typical growth level is higher at one school than the other (it could still be the case that the lower-ranked school serves a specific subgroup much better than the higher-ranked school).
The main problem is that these scores are fraught with measurement error, so rarely can we say with confidence that one school is better than another school. For example, Bancroft was in the top third on math MGP for 2011-12 and H.D. Cooke was in the bottom third, but the two math MGP scores are statistically indistinguishable (their scores’ margins of error overlap).
I went to the site and your "succinct version" is exactly what they state. But I did not understand it. Unless you are talking about scores that are so close to each other that the "plus or minus x" makes them equal. But even then you can look at the trends because they give so many scores.
However, if you look at the OSSE equity reports (I could only find 2012-2013, when Washington Latin barely made the 65% cut off for Tier I (the score was 65.3 on the DCPCB Performance Report), they do compare how much the kids are improving vs other kids who had similar scores on the DC CAS the prior year in the entire city. Washington Latin's improvement scores were
all below the average of the entire city for all subgroups - they break it down by proficiency and subgroup - white, Hispanic, AA- they matched up a particular school vs Washington DC as a whole.
OSSE does something similar for public schools. It describes it's measurement as "the percentage of students with similar prior achievement that the typical student outperforms on the DC CAS."
Deal, with the exception of ELL and special ed, and math for Hispanics,
had improvement scores that were all above the city's average, especially the white kids in math. 65% of the white students at Deal improved their DC CAS scores in math vs 59% of white students in general - so whatever the margin of error, we have to assume it is a margin of error across the board. The only difference is you have to then go look at the actual DC CAS scores at Deal to see how significant the jump was at Deal versus the entire city.
But I think the Charter Board is right - improvements in the population you have matter a lot, no matter how great they are. The argument could be made both ways - that it is easier to make someone who is Basic become Proficient, or easier to make someone who is Proficient become Advanced.
I tend to believe that the move from Basic to Proficient is probably a lot harder, but I see why they assign the movement so high a value. I also see why, when Latin's population is starting to look so much like Deal's, you would really wonder why they did not behave the way Deal did on the last DC CAS in terms of improving their kids scores....... which is what basically made them drop from Tier I to Tier 2 (I think).