Yes, by rolling die twice you get better odds than rolling the die once. Duh.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think after three years, you'll get a spot you want.

You're the second person who has said something to this effect, but wouldn't the statisticians among us say that you have no better chance at pulling good numbers in your successive rounds than you would in your first? I don't think that playing repeatedly will guarantee entry to the desired schools (especially with fewer slots in K than PS3), and I would be scared to rely on the chances of that and fail to make other plans, like moving to an area with a better IB school or investigating private if you're in the position to do so. I worry that this optimistic attitude, actually useful in other areas of life, might not yield the best results in this situation.

We've done three years and I agree with PP. We don't know anyone who didn't find a spot that they are happy with eventually, and most work it out that first year at PS3. It might not be their first choice but it's one that they like. that's what happened for us - sent DD to Appletree for two years and now got into our 5th choice which is more longterm and very happy with the decision.

Waiting lists are a lot shorter at K or 1st, even if there are less spots. Also, some people just go on applying even if they are happy where they are and have no intention of moving so the K lists move quicker at some schools.

Okay, good to know! I am the PP below the first quoted text, and I didn't know that fewer people enter the lottery in PK4 and K, and that the wait-lists may move more quickly. Btw, I certainly do NOT consider myself a statistician, and yes, I do understand that entering the lottery three times means you get three chances of a school you want. I just got the feeling that people were implying that you'd somehow accrete better odds simply by entering again, when that's not the case.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think after three years, you'll get a spot you want.

You're the second person who has said something to this effect, but wouldn't the statisticians among us say that you have no better chance at pulling good numbers in your successive rounds than you would in your first? I don't think that playing repeatedly will guarantee entry to the desired schools (especially with fewer slots in K than PS3), and I would be scared to rely on the chances of that and fail to make other plans, like moving to an area with a better IB school or investigating private if you're in the position to do so. I worry that this optimistic attitude, actually useful in other areas of life, might not yield the best results in this situation.

We've done three years and I agree with PP. We don't know anyone who didn't find a spot that they are happy with eventually, and most work it out that first year at PS3. It might not be their first choice but it's one that they like. that's what happened for us - sent DD to Appletree for two years and now got into our 5th choice which is more longterm and very happy with the decision.

Waiting lists are a lot shorter at K or 1st, even if there are less spots. Also, some people just go on applying even if they are happy where they are and have no intention of moving so the K lists move quicker at some schools.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think after three years, you'll get a spot you want.

You're the second person who has said something to this effect, but wouldn't the statisticians among us say that you have no better chance at pulling good numbers in your successive rounds than you would in your first? I don't think that playing repeatedly will guarantee entry to the desired schools (especially with fewer slots in K than PS3), and I would be scared to rely on the chances of that and fail to make other plans, like moving to an area with a better IB school or investigating private if you're in the position to do so. I worry that this optimistic attitude, actually useful in other areas of life, might not yield the best results in this situation.

Yes, but by continuing to play, you're entering over and over again, thus increasing your odds. No guarantees, of course, but definitely a higher probability. And past PK4, my understanding is that you have many fewer students applying.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think after three years, you'll get a spot you want.

You're the second person who has said something to this effect, but wouldn't the statisticians among us say that you have no better chance at pulling good numbers in your successive rounds than you would in your first? I don't think that playing repeatedly will guarantee entry to the desired schools (especially with fewer slots in K than PS3), and I would be scared to rely on the chances of that and fail to make other plans, like moving to an area with a better IB school or investigating private if you're in the position to do so. I worry that this optimistic attitude, actually useful in other areas of life, might not yield the best results in this situation.

more doable schools every year. And people continue to move out of dc not just because of schools but because of space and because they revert back to what they know (being a pretween in a suburb - so there is the draw to recreate that for your own kids). More doable schools, more kids but not as many more kids as doable schools = a spot eventually.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think after three years, you'll get a spot you want.

You're the second person who has said something to this effect, but wouldn't the statisticians among us say that you have no better chance at pulling good numbers in your successive rounds than you would in your first? I don't think that playing repeatedly will guarantee entry to the desired schools (especially with fewer slots in K than PS3), and I would be scared to rely on the chances of that and fail to make other plans, like moving to an area with a better IB school or investigating private if you're in the position to do so. I worry that this optimistic attitude, actually useful in other areas of life, might not yield the best results in this situation.

By "the statisticians among us," I hope you are not including yourself. More rolls at the die mean a better shot at hitting the right number if it only needs to be hit once.

Anonymous wrote:I think after three years, you'll get a spot you want.

You're the second person who has said something to this effect, but wouldn't the statisticians among us say that you have no better chance at pulling good numbers in your successive rounds than you would in your first? I don't think that playing repeatedly will guarantee entry to the desired schools (especially with fewer slots in K than PS3), and I would be scared to rely on the chances of that and fail to make other plans, like moving to an area with a better IB school or investigating private if you're in the position to do so. I worry that this optimistic attitude, actually useful in other areas of life, might not yield the best results in this situation.

Last year shut out completely (pk3). This year we did:

Oyster
MV
Capital Hill Montessori
SWS
Lee
IT
Eaton
Bridges
sela
Appletree Columbia heights

Already had a huge deposit down at a private preschool. Got Lee. Gave up the deposit. Also got into Shinning stars in non-common lottery but no where else.

My suggestion is to put the schools you want on your list. JUMP on new promising charters - it was a 10% chance to get into Lee compared with 4% for a charter that's been around for a couple years - sibling preference will eat you alive! Put schools like sela and shinning stars on your list (though SS won't work next year), and be prepared to pay private preschool. I think after three years, you'll get a spot you want.

This thread was about how the lottery panned out for you, not a discussion of it's mechanics. Anyone else got insight to share?