Anonymous wrote:Cold Spring goes from 95 in 5th grade to only 35 in K. Travilah goes from 75 is 4th to only 47 in K. Big drop in a few years.

Cold Spring has an HGC for 4th and 5th.

Travilah goes from 69 in 5th to 72 in 1st.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If we had moved to Bethesda we could not afford or even consider affording private school. In Potomac, its an option because the house is less of our budget.

Well, there are a lot of families moving into Bethesda apartments and condos too, which are probably on par with or cheaper than the houses in the Potomac neighborhoods that OP said were losing kids. So I still don't see how this dynamic being observed in the Wootton/Churchill clusters says something broader about how "affluent" parents view MCPS and 2.0. Rather, I think there's something local going on in OP's neck of the woods that would explain what's happening. I am still curious what school OP's kids go to that is suddenly shrinking so fast, but perhaps identifying the school would take away the power of the inference being made in the original post.

I would like to know this too.

Cold Spring goes from 95 in 5th grade to only 35 in K. Travilah goes from 75 is 4th to only 47 in K. Big drop in a few years.

Anonymous wrote:If we had moved to Bethesda we could not afford or even consider affording private school. In Potomac, its an option because the house is less of our budget.

Well, there are a lot of families moving into Bethesda apartments and condos too, which are probably on par with or cheaper than the houses in the Potomac neighborhoods that OP said were losing kids. So I still don't see how this dynamic being observed in the Wootton/Churchill clusters says something broader about how "affluent" parents view MCPS and 2.0. Rather, I think there's something local going on in OP's neck of the woods that would explain what's happening. I am still curious what school OP's kids go to that is suddenly shrinking so fast, but perhaps identifying the school would take away the power of the inference being made in the original post.

"I'm the OP. I have said this before but there isn't an issue with people not moving in with young kids. If there was less turn over for the housing or if the new developments were a senior assisted living community, it would make sense but that isn't the case. It may be that since the housing is not as expensive as Bethesda that people have more income for private school. This would have been true 8-10 years too. "

It's possible that enrollment in your school is being affected by 2.0, as you have observed, but it's also possible that you don't have a complete picture of the population in your neighborhood. Maybe your street has lots of kids, but the next development is aging out of elementary school. I have lived in several neighborhoods in Bethesda, and in both I have seen big shifts of older residents moving out, and families with children moving in. It can vary block by block depending on housing stock.

Although I know kids in private school, no one has told me they're moving because of C2.0. That's just my anecdotal report from Bethesda, for what it's worth.

If we had moved to Bethesda we could not afford or even consider affording private school. In Potomac, its an option because the house is less of our budget.

Anonymous wrote:Most of the people who can afford McLean and Bethesda are old owners without kids. If you drive around during the day it's dangerous, scary and looks like the old folks home on wheels.

Not true for Bethesda at all. Drive around in the afternoon around 3 PM when the kids are getting off the buses, and you'll see how many small kids there are here. Older folks without kids are the ones living in the small bungalows. Those get knocked down after sale, and new, bigger houses go up for the families with kids.

Which school?

Sorry! I read your comment wrong. But my argument (to the OP) is still the same. If the argument is that either 2.0 is a clusterf*** and/or MCPS is going down the tubes (both things that certain people seem to want to claim here) and that the "proof" is that the wealthy parents who can afford private school are leaving en masse, I point to Bethesda to refute that. Bethesda real estate is generally more expensive on a sq ft basis than Potomac, and the SES is generally higher than Wootton, and yet there's no sign that people are yanking their kids out of MCPS en masse. The real estate market in Bethesda is soaring, families with young kids are moving in all the time, and nearly every school is overcrowded. More likely, any change has to do with commute times downtown than any perceived rejection of 2.0 or MCPS.

I'm the OP. I have said this before but there isn't an issue with people not moving in with young kids. If there was less turn over for the housing or if the new developments were a senior assisted living community, it would make sense but that isn't the case. It may be that since the housing is not as expensive as Bethesda that people have more income for private school. This would have been true 8-10 years too.

Our school NEVER had an enrollment problem in the past. Our school is facing another year of only filling 2 classes in a grade.

Anonymous wrote:
It's not 2.0, it's real estate.
(Not that I'm a fan of 2.0, quite the opposite.)

MCPS has projectors that predict future demographic trends:

Bethesda Elementary, in a "mixed" (ha!) urban neighborhood is exploding and will continue to do so - they are currently building a large addition.
Woodacres to the south (exclusively suburban) is projected to decrease its student body in a few years - right now they're renovating and I believe expanding a little as well.

Woodacres enrollment is projected to decrease from 776 in 2014-2015 to 735 in 2019-2020 -- which is not a big decrease. And that's without any additional development. And at 735 students, they would still exceed the future capacity of 734.

Most of the people who can afford McLean and Bethesda are old owners without kids. If you drive around during the day it's dangerous, scary and looks like the old folks home on wheels.

Anonymous wrote:2nd grader - rising 3rd grader and rising K bailing for private next year. I NEVER thought we would pay for private. My older child had a great education and was challenged. I accepted that MCPS didn't offer much art, music, language, and science but planned on doing outside activities and classes depending on the kids' interest. After sticking it out with 2.0 for K-2, trust me its awful. My kids could get a better education if I hired a teenage baby-sitter to sit with them at a library and do worksheets all day.

My local MCPS school is desperate for K students. They can only fill 2 classes.

Which school? I'm asking because

1. My second child has had 2.0 for grades 1-2, and she's learned plenty.
2. If the school is "desperate" for students, maybe some of the RM cluster parents might want to try for a COSA.

Anonymous wrote:
It's not 2.0, it's real estate.
(Not that I'm a fan of 2.0, quite the opposite.)

MCPS has projectors that predict future demographic trends:

Bethesda Elementary, in a "mixed" (ha!) urban neighborhood is exploding and will continue to do so - they are currently building a large addition.
Woodacres to the south (exclusively suburban) is projected to decrease its student body in a few years - right now they're renovating and I believe expanding a little as well.

Yes, Wood Acres is expanding over the next 18-24 months to get rid of its multiple portables. But a decrease in student population? Ha! The school is still projected to have nearly 800 students, and perhaps far, far more if there is no redistricting in connection to the planned redevelopment of the Westbard area, which will include a huge number of apartments. Which proves your point that the driver is location, location, location. There is no "affluent family flight" from MCPS in the close-in suburbs...quite the opposite.

2nd grader - rising 3rd grader and rising K bailing for private next year. I NEVER thought we would pay for private. My older child had a great education and was challenged. I accepted that MCPS didn't offer much art, music, language, and science but planned on doing outside activities and classes depending on the kids' interest. After sticking it out with 2.0 for K-2, trust me its awful. My kids could get a better education if I hired a teenage baby-sitter to sit with them at a library and do worksheets all day.

My local MCPS school is desperate for K students. They can only fill 2 classes.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:RM cluster in Rockville is very over crowded. No mass migration to private here.

It's all relative. QO and RM clusters are not affluent compared to Potomac. Yes, there are some areas of those 2 cities that rival Potomac house prices, but for the most part, the prices don't compare.

So the OP's question is, "How come some of the very richest people in Montgomery County aren't sending their children to MCPS elementary schools as much anymore?"

Of all the problems facing MCPS.

I would wager that the SES of the average Whitman family is higher than the SES of the average Wootton family, and yet the Whitman cluster ES's are totally oversubscribed. So I don't know how you conclude that the wealthiest people in MoCo are quitting MCPS en masse because of "problems facing MCPS."

I don't. That was the OP.

Sorry! I read your comment wrong. But my argument (to the OP) is still the same. If the argument is that either 2.0 is a clusterf*** and/or MCPS is going down the tubes (both things that certain people seem to want to claim here) and that the "proof" is that the wealthy parents who can afford private school are leaving en masse, I point to Bethesda to refute that. Bethesda real estate is generally more expensive on a sq ft basis than Potomac, and the SES is generally higher than Wootton, and yet there's no sign that people are yanking their kids out of MCPS en masse. The real estate market in Bethesda is soaring, families with young kids are moving in all the time, and nearly every school is overcrowded. More likely, any change has to do with commute times downtown than any perceived rejection of 2.0 or MCPS.