Trump isn’t likely to have a Republican Congress much longer. International student apps will continue to increase and make up for the gentle decline in U.S. births.

Regional ones will get easier. Catholic ones will get easier as there are fewer catholics among young people and a pretty anti-christian belief system developing. Very high priced mediocre privates will get easier to get into, like Seton Hall, St. John's, DePaul, Syracuse.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The top 1-40 schools posted the highest number of Applicants to date, higher than last year (significantly so). This 2007-2008 cohort is the peak.

+1

This year is seeing another significant increase in application numbers per school. It’s way up over last year’s numbers. Discouraging. I thought it would at least stay stable, if not drop a little. I was shocked to see the opposite.

Kids are shotgunning their applications to reach schools.

Test optional + the occasional apocryphal story of some idiot getting into harvard has convinced everyone with an A average that they have a shot at the best test optional schools.

Well it’s because they do if they are FGLI.

Everybody is shotgunning not just fgli

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The top 1-40 schools posted the highest number of Applicants to date, higher than last year (significantly so). This 2007-2008 cohort is the peak.

+1

This year is seeing another significant increase in application numbers per school. It’s way up over last year’s numbers. Discouraging. I thought it would at least stay stable, if not drop a little. I was shocked to see the opposite.

Kids are shotgunning their applications to reach schools.

Test optional + the occasional apocryphal story of some idiot getting into harvard has convinced everyone with an A average that they have a shot at the best test optional schools.

Well it’s because they do if they are FGLI.

There are other factors at play. Short answer no it will only get more brutal for T-20 private and T-50+ public schools for in state.

1. The economic disaster that Trump has brought has spooked many families into looking for lower cost options.
2. The price increase of college.
3. US News changing rankings in 2024 to award almost 50% of the score to social mobility factors. Larger universities are increasing their throw away spots for unprepared low income students and using them to fill abandoned easy majors while pumping their rankings reducing spots for students who are qualified and would have gained admission in the past.
4. The Trump attack on science and research has led schools to increase spots for international, OOS ( if public) and use wealth indexing proxy data to ensure the non low income spots go to assured full pay and potential donors.
5. The unpredictability of admissions for UMC well qualified applicants has led to students applying to many more schools. Schools like this as it favorably makes them appear more selective but to protect yield more unpredictable decisions are made.
6. Funneling impact for STEM majors, with STEM being one of the hardest areas to increase spots and more expensive majors for the schools.

New York State is on demographic cliff. Every year it loses population. But does Manhattan real estate get cheaper? Not in the least. Buffalo and Syracuse may be clearing out, but Tribeca lofts are more expensive than ever.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The top 1-40 schools posted the highest number of Applicants to date, higher than last year (significantly so). This 2007-2008 cohort is the peak.

+1

This year is seeing another significant increase in application numbers per school. It’s way up over last year’s numbers. Discouraging. I thought it would at least stay stable, if not drop a little. I was shocked to see the opposite.

Kids are shotgunning their applications to reach schools.

Test optional + the occasional apocryphal story of some idiot getting into harvard has convinced everyone with an A average that they have a shot at the best test optional schools.

Anonymous wrote:How many times do we need to debunk this ridiculous myth?

First, there's no "cliff". It's a very gentle slope.

Second, it will impact the least popular, small colleges who are not in great financial shape.

I don't think any of the better known, larger colleges will be impacted. And selectivity will most assuredly NOT be affected in the top tier.

It will affect every school but the ones at the bottom will go belly up.

If the applicant population shrinks by 2%, it will be 2% easier to get into even the best schools so your 5% chance is now 5.1% Congratulations!

How many times do we need to debunk this ridiculous myth?

First, there's no "cliff". It's a very gentle slope.

Second, it will impact the least popular, small colleges who are not in great financial shape.

I don't think any of the better known, larger colleges will be impacted. And selectivity will most assuredly NOT be affected in the top tier.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The top 1-40 schools posted the highest number of Applicants to date, higher than last year (significantly so). This 2007-2008 cohort is the peak.

+1

This year is seeing another significant increase in application numbers per school. It’s way up over last year’s numbers. Discouraging. I thought it would at least stay stable, if not drop a little. I was shocked to see the opposite.

Why?

First of all, not all areas of the US are going to see a cliff. This will affect popular state schools. Secondly, there’s been a trend of consolidation to apply to the same colleges. Those colleges will not see a cliff & may see more applications thanks to websites like this one & social media beating the “prestige” drum. Thirdly, as long as college prices are crazy & admission is a crapshoot, kids will apply to 15+ colleges to get the best “deal” or ranking.

No one should expect popular or highly ranked schools to get easier to admit any time soon.

As an aside, this is why sociology matters as a course. I took it as a gen ed & learned the nuance of demographics

Anonymous wrote:The top 1-40 schools posted the highest number of Applicants to date, higher than last year (significantly so). This 2007-2008 cohort is the peak.

+1

This year is seeing another significant increase in application numbers per school. It’s way up over last year’s numbers. Discouraging. I thought it would at least stay stable, if not drop a little. I was shocked to see the opposite.

Anonymous wrote:AI devaluation of undergrad degrees is rapidly occurring. This is what will kill higher ed.

AI can't devalue education though. Being educated in a changing, uncertain environment is important.