Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If the war last longer than 6 months yes

We were at war for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan and the market did great.

Great is relative...I mean, it took until 2013 for the S&P to return to its 2000 high. In between, you had 9/11, Iraq/Afghanistan wars, 08/09 financial crisis.

It did great from 2013 until 2021, but the bulk of the war expense happened prior to 2013.

+1 plus our debt wasn’t this high. This admin is determined to bankrupt America.

Anonymous wrote:When’s gold going to jump? I’m balls deep in gold miners and bullion ETFs. Can we at least get a fking price rise on that? It’s trading like a meme stock! Jiminy Christmas!

Probably get a recessionary flush before they print money and causes price to spike.

My portfolio performance is making me sad now

When’s gold going to jump? I’m balls deep in gold miners and bullion ETFs. Can we at least get a fking price rise on that? It’s trading like a meme stock! Jiminy Christmas!

Anonymous wrote:If you were to guess do you think the Dow will end up below 40000 by end of the year?

If I had to guess, I'd say we dip down to that level but will not be there by the end of the year. On the bright side, maybe we'll get some answers on the Epstein Files then, since apparently we weren't supposed to talk about it while the DOW was above 50K.

If by May 1st the war is not over the market is in trouble.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you were to guess do you think the Dow will end up below 40000 by end of the year?

If that happens will Pam Bondi release the rest of the Epstein files?

I do hope she is asked about this in her upcoming subpoenaed testimony.

Looking at futures and we may be at DOW 40,000 by the end of the week.

Anonymous wrote:If you were to guess do you think the Dow will end up below 40000 by end of the year?

If that happens will Pam Bondi release the rest of the Epstein files?

Anonymous wrote:Last week i didn't think it was possible but today I think it's very possible. Maybe not 39000, but to be honest even if the Dow goes below 45000 and linger there until the end of the year that's not good.

The good news though this will be a reminder to GenZ and others who think 10+% return year after the year is the norm.

For everyone's sake assume 7% return over the longe run.

So all but tech is in recession, and even tech is not hiring. https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-economy-us-tech-wall-street-strategist-investing-stocks-market-2026-3

Last week i didn't think it was possible but today I think it's very possible. Maybe not 39000, but to be honest even if the Dow goes below 45000 and linger there until the end of the year that's not good.

The good news though this will be a reminder to GenZ and others who think 10+% return year after the year is the norm.

For everyone's sake assume 7% return over the longe run.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The Dow has been levitating on AI hopium for a very long time. P/E ratios are completely out of whack from historical norms. I recall 2007/8 when everyone said housing prices never go down. And then they did and the whole house of cards collapsed.

Who knows whether the war with Iran will be the catalyst this time. But we are well overdue for a reality check. It is never different this time. From the tulip bubble in the 1600s to today, markets get irrationally frothy and always collapse eventually.

There was a step change in PE ratios after the 90s, which was a result of how the world changed with the internet.

I would argue the change from AI will be even bigger


https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

According to this chart, we are not even close to historically high P/E ratios that triggered a large sell off. US is a major exporter of energy. Other countries have large strategic reserves for weather the temporary deficit and today US energy chief confirmed the strikes will be temporary and the prices will fall in a month. They won't be risking midterm elections.

And the private credit crisis is not spread over all sectors of the economy. Let the rich guys/specialized investors in these vehicles loose their money who cares.

And no, I don't believe the US will be any safer than other countries to invest. It is is stable and Nazi Germany as long as it continues present existential threat to other economies and resolve diplomatic conflicts with military. Developed countries of Europe and Asia will distance and try to become more undefended from dollar and US politics going forward

Anonymous wrote:Futures look like more bloodletting

Futures don't even open until 6:00 PM

Futures look like more bloodletting

Anonymous wrote:While everyone is distracted with WW3, I keep hearing rumblings of a "private credit" event worse than 2008 subprime event. Buyer beware!

Yes, the wealthy private equity groups got conned by the James brothers at First Brands. An expensive lesson for sure but they will survive and be more careful where they put their money in the future. Tax write offs will ease the pain.