Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If it’s really a market downturn five years from retirement, treat it as a buying opportunity. Even the 2008 downturn recovered by 2013. If it’s a downturn in your first year of retirement then you’re just out of luck. But hopefully you ran a FireCalc Monte Carlo analysis to stress test against historical downturns.

After the 1929 crash, S&P did not recover till 1954.

If you bought in 1930 you would have made big money within a few years.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If it’s really a market downturn five years from retirement, treat it as a buying opportunity. Even the 2008 downturn recovered by 2013. If it’s a downturn in your first year of retirement then you’re just out of luck. But hopefully you ran a FireCalc Monte Carlo analysis to stress test against historical downturns.

After the 1929 crash, S&P did not recover till 1954.

This is by “index” price alone.

If an investor stayed in the market and reinvested returns, they returned to the previous 1929 value in as little as five years. But this depends on the methodology. Index funds didn’t exist back then and there was no actual SandP 500 to measure against.

Anonymous wrote:I heard there were some suicides in 2008. It can be rough for sure.

we had them at work over the years. Every crash we get a jumper

I sold 85% of my investments and now am very conservatively invested. I’m wealthy and retired young. I will now always have plenty of money but now a small amount of growth.

I have enough cash to last 10 years, factoring in inflation. However if we have a 1929 kind of crash, we are all F-ed.

Anonymous wrote:If it’s really a market downturn five years from retirement, treat it as a buying opportunity. Even the 2008 downturn recovered by 2013. If it’s a downturn in your first year of retirement then you’re just out of luck. But hopefully you ran a FireCalc Monte Carlo analysis to stress test against historical downturns.

After the 1929 crash, S&P did not recover till 1954.

If it’s really a market downturn five years from retirement, treat it as a buying opportunity. Even the 2008 downturn recovered by 2013. If it’s a downturn in your first year of retirement then you’re just out of luck. But hopefully you ran a FireCalc Monte Carlo analysis to stress test against historical downturns.

Sequence of Return risk is a real threat to a planned-for retirement, regardless of portfolio size.

You either 1) have a ballast (cash, MYGA); 2) extend your working years; or 3) alter your lifestyle/estate & giving plans.

Ride it out. The truth is you can live on very little for a few years. Most people massively overestimate what they need anyway.

If you can you work a little longer. Otherwise you spend less to weather the storm. Same as FIRE.

My retirement plan includes alwaya having two years of expenditures in a cash market account. I will draw from this fund for living expenses while replenishing it from investments and retirement incomes. This means if the market tanks I can pause or minimize my investment withdrawals until it stabilizes or starts bouncing back.

With a paid off house and no car loans, we can live pretty cheaply if needed. We live well but not extravagant and any retrenchments required by declining markets would mainly mean scaling back on travel.

You are better off than someone who experiences a market downturn their first year of retirement. Those people can be really hurt. I am hoping to have money to cover 2-3 years of expenses invested very conservatively.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What happens when they turnoff the SS spigot and make Medicare untenable so no doctors accept it?

Most Americans will starve to death, be homeless and die without medical care.

Isn't it already happening? In case people are not aware the US is one of the country with the least disaggregated data on poverty at the national level. We actually don't know how many poor people have. It's not by accident.

Anonymous wrote:What happens when they turnoff the SS spigot and make Medicare untenable so no doctors accept it?

Most Americans will starve to death, be homeless and die without medical care.

We are about 1 year out. We changed AA from 70/30 to 55/45 this year. The 45% produces enough to cover our expenses. SSI for DH will provide for extras and unexpected. When I take mine it will do the same. For now, with so much uncertainty in the markets, we are staying put at that level. When things start feeling a little more secure in the markets, we will bump back up and hold at 60/40. We own our home and cars, and kids are launched.