Anonymous wrote:Democrats win GOP seat in New Hampshire, notching 10th straight special election flip.

Boudman, a financial analyst, defeated Republican Dale Fincher, a Christian nonprofit speaker and investment firm founder, by a 52-48 margin to win Carroll County’s 7th District.

Donald Trump also carried the district, which includes the towns of Ossipee, Tuftonboro, and Wolfeboro, by a 54-45 margin.

Oopsie! https://open.substack.com/pub/thedownballot/p/breaking-democrats-win-gop-seat-in

Wow, that’s a stunning result. That whole area was a sea of Trump flags in 2016. Mitt Romney owns a lake house in Wolfeboro.

Anonymous wrote:And in the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat:

These two go to a runoff election on April 7. And take a look at the voting in the most Hispanic areas:

And in the special election to fill Marjorie Taylor Greene’s seat:

Also yesterday: another flip, in the mayoral election in Boca Raton (Trump +13)

Democrats win GOP seat in New Hampshire, notching 10th straight special election flip.

Boudman, a financial analyst, defeated Republican Dale Fincher, a Christian nonprofit speaker and investment firm founder, by a 52-48 margin to win Carroll County’s 7th District.

Donald Trump also carried the district, which includes the towns of Ossipee, Tuftonboro, and Wolfeboro, by a 54-45 margin.

Oopsie! https://open.substack.com/pub/thedownballot/p/breaking-democrats-win-gop-seat-in

Less than a month before the statewide election for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat

And the conservative incumbent up for reelection in 2027 will resign instead of running again.

Democrat Alex Holladay has FLIPPED Arkansas State House Seat 70 in the State Legislature!

This is the 2nd red-to-blue State Legislative flip of the year!

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/5763559-democratic-pickup-arkansas-house-race/

Holladay’s victory does not change control of the state’s lower legislative chamber, where Republicans have held a 80-19 majority. But the Democratic pickup could matter for appropriations bills, which require a 75-percent supermajority vote from both chambers. Gov. Sarah Huckabee tried to push this election off till June 9, which would have been after the fiscal session in April.

Anonymous wrote:—Democrats won HD94 by 63 points.
(Harris won it by 30 in 2024.)

—Democrats won HD42 by 35 points.
(Harris won it by 17 in 2024.)


Pennsylvania as noted above

Woot!

—Democrats won HD94 by 63 points.
(Harris won it by 30 in 2024.)

—Democrats won HD42 by 35 points.
(Harris won it by 17 in 2024.)


Pennsylvania as noted above

Axios finally decides this year-long trend is worthy of a news story.

Next up on Tuesday:

And keep an eye on the rumored early retirement of another House Republican:

Anonymous wrote:Not sure where else to put this but...

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/with-house-gop-majority-teetering-on-the-brink-florida-congressman-plans-to-retire-early-report/

If Rep. Dunn in fact retires early, then the House Majority would come into question and...there would be a special election over the summer and then the regular election in the fall.

A few thoughts
- both Schorsch and Rumpf are A+++ in Florida politics so I trust their reporting/analysis on this
- DeSantis would schedule the special for like the Tuesday following his resignation to get another GOP rep in that seat ASAP
- Ironic for the GOP to lose another rep to Covid
- His long Covid must be really bad to keep him from finishing his term in this Congress, which famously doesn’t do anything

Not sure where else to put this but...

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/with-house-gop-majority-teetering-on-the-brink-florida-congressman-plans-to-retire-early-report/

If Rep. Dunn in fact retires early, then the House Majority would come into question and...there would be a special election over the summer and then the regular election in the fall.

Anonymous wrote:

The final is less exciting but still a huge overperformance.