Oh look I’m right.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The markets like certainty. On and off tariff policy is not certainty. Loss of independence of the fed is not certainty. Trying to fire its members to get low rates out of a handpicked choice is not certainty. We had an April crash and yes a subsequent rise after but the bottom line is the goal is to cut rates at really any cost even if inflation is rising. And it is rising. But true levels of inflation are also going to be misrepresented. Gold will keep going up. Markets gonna crash in less than 2 years.

There is always uncertainty. There’s been uncertainty for the entirety of Trump’s nearly 5 years in office because he’s a lunatic. Stellar stock market performance.

Was there uncertainty during the global pandemic?

Bottom line is we were trying to control inflation. Powell was actually a great Trump appointee. He’s basically the adult in the room. When he’s gone the Heritage foundation dude will step in a lower rates like crazy. We will also do QE to stimulate growth. I mean look at the price of gold in recent years. It’s steadily ticking up. Yes equities are doing well now. However, I am slowly hedging my stock positions into more defensive ETFs like GDE and IAUM. I also own Ethereum ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs and a bunch of regular azz “safe bet” index funds in my taxable. The point is all is well now. All will probably be fine and the S&P will fly up with lowered rates and QE, but we can’t just print money and throw in tariffs all over the place without economic pain coming in the mail. It’s coming. My gold will have me ready to sell and buy stocks when that crash comes. I do believe the market always goes up long term, but I am not sure Buffet’s advice to just stick your money in a low cost US S&P index fund and forget it forever is necessarily the best route in the future. It’s looking like international stocks will have their time in the future. Our allies are starting to do trade routes around us it looks like. We need to be reliable trading partners again.

Anonymous wrote:The markets like certainty. On and off tariff policy is not certainty. Loss of independence of the fed is not certainty. Trying to fire its members to get low rates out of a handpicked choice is not certainty. We had an April crash and yes a subsequent rise after but the bottom line is the goal is to cut rates at really any cost even if inflation is rising. And it is rising. But true levels of inflation are also going to be misrepresented. Gold will keep going up. Markets gonna crash in less than 2 years.

There is always uncertainty. There’s been uncertainty for the entirety of Trump’s nearly 5 years in office because he’s a lunatic. Stellar stock market performance.

Was there uncertainty during the global pandemic?

The markets like certainty. On and off tariff policy is not certainty. Loss of independence of the fed is not certainty. Trying to fire its members to get low rates out of a handpicked choice is not certainty. We had an April crash and yes a subsequent rise after but the bottom line is the goal is to cut rates at really any cost even if inflation is rising. And it is rising. But true levels of inflation are also going to be misrepresented. Gold will keep going up. Markets gonna crash in less than 2 years.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m leaving my IRA in 80% international stocks and 20% domestic stocks for the long term. I fully expect a market crash soon from tariffs however.

In my taxable, which is the gambling account, I’m buying GDE and IAUM and once the crash comes buying SPMO.

I don’t understand how people can’t see the crash coming. Read the tea leaves. Gold is rising up. The dollar is devaluing. Inflation, which isn’t even being properly reported, is rising. We are going to turn on the money printer as soon as Trump allows it. Once Powell is out all bets are off one people trusting our stock market. Everything is going to over heat and crash.

Probably because people have been saying this every month for the last 15 years. And what’s a “crash”? Do you realize that if it goes down 45% we’re basically at 2022 (Biden) levels?

There will be a correction at some indeterminate point like there is every few years. It’ll go back up. Trying to time it is just so dumb. Keep buying when it goes down and don’t sell.

Biden levels. lol. Those were higher and steadier because the world didn’t have tariff nonsense.

What are you talking about? Are you trying to say the S&P500 was higher under Biden? Are you just completely ignorant?

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I keep reading market crash threads here. Not sure if it’s the same poster or not. Maybe trying to make political statements. Op, why don’t you just get out and sit out until you feel comfortable.

What’s wrong with making political statements or are you fine pretending that becoming a fascist police state is normal as long as your investments keep performing? Wake up. Trump has inserted himself in everything from higher education to our economy and he is just getting started. We can all be polite and just pretend that isn’t the case but what would be the point of denying reality?

NP.
So sick of posters like you. This is not a political forum.

+100

So fragile.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I keep reading market crash threads here. Not sure if it’s the same poster or not. Maybe trying to make political statements. Op, why don’t you just get out and sit out until you feel comfortable.

What’s wrong with making political statements or are you fine pretending that becoming a fascist police state is normal as long as your investments keep performing? Wake up. Trump has inserted himself in everything from higher education to our economy and he is just getting started. We can all be polite and just pretend that isn’t the case but what would be the point of denying reality?

NP.
So sick of posters like you. This is not a political forum.

+100

It is these days. Didn’t you know we’re now taking “golden shares” in our companies. You supposed free market capitalist patriots must be experiencing some cognitive dissonance and mental gymnastics trying to justify that. So yeah, investing has become political by default.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I keep reading market crash threads here. Not sure if it’s the same poster or not. Maybe trying to make political statements. Op, why don’t you just get out and sit out until you feel comfortable.

What’s wrong with making political statements or are you fine pretending that becoming a fascist police state is normal as long as your investments keep performing? Wake up. Trump has inserted himself in everything from higher education to our economy and he is just getting started. We can all be polite and just pretend that isn’t the case but what would be the point of denying reality?

NP.
So sick of posters like you. This is not a political forum.

+100

It’s a shame Fox News hides reality from so many investors. Anyway, I’m going to snap up the shares you have to panic sell in your retirement because you couldn’t see inflation coming because it wasn’t reported to you.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I’m leaving my IRA in 80% international stocks and 20% domestic stocks for the long term. I fully expect a market crash soon from tariffs however.

In my taxable, which is the gambling account, I’m buying GDE and IAUM and once the crash comes buying SPMO.

I don’t understand how people can’t see the crash coming. Read the tea leaves. Gold is rising up. The dollar is devaluing. Inflation, which isn’t even being properly reported, is rising. We are going to turn on the money printer as soon as Trump allows it. Once Powell is out all bets are off one people trusting our stock market. Everything is going to over heat and crash.

Probably because people have been saying this every month for the last 15 years. And what’s a “crash”? Do you realize that if it goes down 45% we’re basically at 2022 (Biden) levels?

There will be a correction at some indeterminate point like there is every few years. It’ll go back up. Trying to time it is just so dumb. Keep buying when it goes down and don’t sell.

Biden levels. lol. Those were higher and steadier because the world didn’t have tariff nonsense.

Anonymous wrote:Sorry, I'm confused. Which market are you talking about? Also what are you trying to accomplish -- minimizing losses or maximizing gains.

Your question is a risk management one. Risk is not equal to volatility but, I would argue, long-term loss of capital.

Assuming you agree, then you shouldn't invest any differently in a down-market than you would an up-market. Because the goal isn't minimizing volatility. Rather, it's owning high-quality, productive assets (of which gold is not one).

Like I keep saying, this market is getting fked six ways to Sunday by tariffs and bipolar “policy”. Gold is a safe have when it crashes. Gold will keep rising with the uncertainty and stay high when inflation has set it and stocks start falling. I’ll cash out and buy QQQ, SPMO and international stock ETFs cheaply. Nit that hard to get.

DOG MONEY

Sorry, I'm confused. Which market are you talking about? Also what are you trying to accomplish -- minimizing losses or maximizing gains.

Your question is a risk management one. Risk is not equal to volatility but, I would argue, long-term loss of capital.

Assuming you agree, then you shouldn't invest any differently in a down-market than you would an up-market. Because the goal isn't minimizing volatility. Rather, it's owning high-quality, productive assets (of which gold is not one).

Anonymous wrote:I’m leaving my IRA in 80% international stocks and 20% domestic stocks for the long term. I fully expect a market crash soon from tariffs however.

In my taxable, which is the gambling account, I’m buying GDE and IAUM and once the crash comes buying SPMO.

I don’t understand how people can’t see the crash coming. Read the tea leaves. Gold is rising up. The dollar is devaluing. Inflation, which isn’t even being properly reported, is rising. We are going to turn on the money printer as soon as Trump allows it. Once Powell is out all bets are off one people trusting our stock market. Everything is going to over heat and crash.

Probably because people have been saying this every month for the last 15 years. And what’s a “crash”? Do you realize that if it goes down 45% we’re basically at 2022 (Biden) levels?

There will be a correction at some indeterminate point like there is every few years. It’ll go back up. Trying to time it is just so dumb. Keep buying when it goes down and don’t sell.

Anonymous wrote:Gold ETFs like GLDM or IAUM. Anyone else have any recommended ETFs or strategies? I’m buying gold ETFs now and will sell once the tariff induced Great Recession happens in international stocks. Anyone else have a strategy?

If you're really trying to invest for a crash, you just short SPY.

Otherwise you're just playing with yourself.